From the Economist's Forum.
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The Whiggery (the idea that history is a continual march toward better technology, ideas, and more “freedom”) in Western culture always leads them to grossly overestimate the impact of new technologies. Movable-type printing existed in China for 400 years before it developed in Europe and had nowhere near the socially disruptive impact it had in Europe. In China, the printing press was used to strengthen the Song Dynasty; helping to promulgate their ideas to the masses. In Europe the printing press became a tool of the Protestant Reformation, but the sentiments in ideas of Protestantism had been alive for in Europe for fifty years (Wycliffe) before the printing press was developed in Europe and the printing press 80 years old before it became a major tool of reformation. The Internet, likewise, will not be the cause of major social changes in China, but rather will be used as a tool to (among other things) promulgate the “official” view and culture. It can be said the Internet will be a byproduct (or reflection) of the culture and societal structures, not a shaper. It is culture and not technology that leads social changes; technology is only a tool and the drive of the culture is what causes its development. The last major leap in technological development was from 1814-1914; since then, all we have seen is refinement of existing technology and sporadic developments. Obviously, Nuclear Power and modern medicine were major developments, but their full potential has not been met. There is a lot of promising technology on the horizon and even sitting on the shelf, but the likelihood they will become wide spread is slim. If you want major societal changes and/or another industrial revolution; start with the culture.
Additionally, it would seem Westerners are either expecting China to mirror the West or else dismiss China’s prospect because it is unlikely to do so. Not only do Westerners believe that they are “good”, but they believe they are the natural march of human progress (a corruption of Calvin idea of predestination and to a lesser extent the political concept of Whiggery), thus anything that is not in line with their framework of ideas is either primitive or an aberration; and (because they believe they are “Good”) “wrong” and possibly “evil”. To understand the West, first understand that the West believes that it is good; not good in the sense that it behaves in accord with the abstract idea of good, but rather it is the embodiment of good; good incarnate. This feeling in the West is a corruption of Calvin’s idea of “Justified Sinners”, but its effect in the Western mind means that by definition what it does is “Good”. Westerner must realize that the Chinese are Asians and not Westerners and that an “open” Asian society is not going to look like an “open” Western society. Is China more closed or “illiberal” than Japan or South Korea? Are Japan and South Korea as “open” as the West; has that stopped them from reaching first world status?