過去幾次recession 開始的時間 和 Yield curve inversion 的關係

來源: 雨城歲月 2023-03-21 10:25:36 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (85240 bytes)
本文內容已被 [ 雨城歲月 ] 在 2023-03-21 10:36:17 編輯過。如有問題,請報告版主或論壇管理刪除.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/

The 2020 recession was the shortest and did not follow the trend of previous recessions.  12 months was the average time between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession. For 2008 recession, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of 2008 recession. This time the 10 year and 3 month first inverted in Oct last year. see below chart: 

 

more details here: https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_3_month_treasury_spread

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