城頭新聞標題說得不夠準確:實際上英國變種病毒致死率是舊病毒1.64倍

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城頭新聞: "恐怖!研究:英國變種病毒致死率較舊病毒高100%"說得不夠準確, 實際上英國變種病毒致死率是舊病毒1.64倍 .

"英國醫學期刊(British Medical Journal)10日刊登的這項研究報告,將感染B117變種病毒的患者死亡率,與感染其他病毒的患者做比較,發現在5萬4906個感染B117的樣本中,227人死亡,同樣是5萬4906個感染其他變種病毒的樣本,僅有141人死亡。

科學家指出,變種病毒B117有23個突變,其中部分的突變使其傳染力更強,較先前一些主要流行的新冠病毒高出大約40%至70%,致死率也「明顯高於」其他病毒;共同主導這項研究的英國艾希特大學(Exeter University)研究員查倫(Robert Challen)表示,致死率高,加上快速傳播的能力,這讓B117成為威脅,應該予以認真看待。"

參加者
54906對匹配的參與者進行了測試, 病人:10月1日2020年和2021年1月29日,後續行動至2021年2月,參與者的年齡,性別,種族相匹配,
死亡病人:首次出現SARS-CoV-2陽性後28天內死亡

結果
與VOC-202012 / 1相比,感染變體死亡率為1.64倍(95%置信區間為1.32至2.04)

Abstract

Objective

To establish whether there is any change in mortality from infection with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, designated a variant of concern (VOC-202012/1) in December 2020, compared with circulating SARSCoV-2 variants. Design Matched cohort study. Setting Community based (pillar 2) covid-19 testing centres in the UK using the TaqPath assay (a proxy measure of VOC-202012/1 infection). Participants 54906 matched pairs of participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in pillar 2 between 1 October 2020 and 29 January 2021, followed-up until 12 February 2021. Participants were matched on age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation, lower tier local authority region, and sample date of positive specimens, and differed only by detectability of the spike protein gene using the TaqPath assay. Main outcome measure Death within 28 days of the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test result.

Results

The mortality hazard ratio associated with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared with infection with previously circulating variants was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04) in patients who tested positive for covid-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk group, this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases

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