COVID可能在12月30日之前每天殺死2900人

來源: 長青311 於 2020-10-05 19:20:24 [檔案] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀：次 (15141 bytes)

應該還是不要輕視新冠為好，webmd 今天剛剛發的文，預測到年底新冦死亡人數上升到36萬人。希望不要發生。

戴口罩，常洗手。

“

10月5日，下午6:27

某個計算機模型預測，在未來幾個月中，美國每天與冠狀病毒相關的死亡人數可能會急劇上升，從現在的每天770人增加到10月底的每天1100多人；到11月底每天2,000人; 到12月底每天2,900人。

這些數字來自華盛頓大學的健康指標與評估研究所。到年底的預測為死亡人數每天2,900人，超過了4月中旬在大流行最嚴重時期，實際每日死亡人數約2,290的峰值。

國際健康監測中心是一個廣泛引用的基於數據的組織，它對冠狀病毒和其他健康威脅進行預測。它根據天氣等不斷變化的信息、人們對疾病的了解以及人們的行動如何影響它做出預測。

“每日死亡，”IHME說，“是流行病蔓延的最佳指標，盡管感染和死亡之間通常存在17-21天的滯後。 ”

國際衛生保健中心一直說，冠狀病毒死亡和病例可以通過更廣泛地使用口罩來降低。目前的預測是根據口罩使用率約50%計算的。

據國際衛生監測中心稱，如果美國存在全民戴口罩的使用，與冠狀病毒有關的每日死亡人數將降至1,146人。

衛生當局預測死亡人數和病例數量將在秋季和冬季上升，因為寒冷的天氣將驅動人們呆在室內，病毒在室內傳播更容易。此外，流感季節和COVID-19大流行病結合，給美國造成了雙管健康問題。

“我們需要窮追到底，度過今年的秋天和冬天，因為這並不容易，”。上個月，安東尼·法希博士在與哈佛醫學院的醫生的網上討論中表示。

目前，國際高管監測中心預計到年底將有36萬人死於冠狀病毒。

WEBMD.com

COVID Could Kill 2,900 Daily By Dec. 30, Computer Model Says

Oct. 5, 6:27 p.m.

A computer model projects daily coronavirus-related deaths in the United States could rise sharply in coming months, going from around 770 now to more than 1,100 daily by the end of October; 2,000 daily by the end of November; and 2,900 daily by the end of December.

Those numbers come from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The end-of-the year projection of 2,900 exceeds the mid-April peak of around 2,290 actual daily deaths -- during the worst stretch of the pandemic,

The IHME is a widely cited, data-based organization that provides projections on the coronavirus and other health threats. It makes forecasts based on changing information such as weather, what is known about a disease, and how people’s actions affect it.

“Daily deaths,” the IHME says, “is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17-21 day lag between infection and deaths.”

The IHME has consistently said that coronavirus deaths and cases could be brought down by wider use of face masks. The current projections are based on face mask usage of around 50%.

If universal face mask usage existed in the United States, the IHME said, coronavirus-related daily deaths could decrease to about 1,146 at the end of the year.

Health authorities have projected deaths and case counts will rise in the fall and winter because cold weather will drive people indoors, where the virus spreads more easily. Also, the combination of flu season and the COVID-19 pandemic creates a double-barreled health problem for the United States.

“We need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter because it’s not going to be easy,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said last month in an online discussion with doctors from Harvard Medical School.

The IHME is currently projecting around 360,000 coronavirus-related deaths by the end of the year.”