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Politicization of voter ID issues[edit]
In 2014, a study released by the Congressional Research Service concluded that, in the absence of systematic risk analyses, it is difficult to determine what points in the election process — voter registration, voting systems, polling place location and hours, pollworker training, voter identification, vote tabulation, or other steps — involve the greatest potential risks to election integrity and therefore warrant the greatest attention.[107] Another 2014 study argued that careful voter roll maintenance is probably a more effective method for preventing voter fraud than voter ID laws.[49]
A 2015 study found that local coverage of voter fraud during the 2012 elections was greatest in presidential swing states and states that passed strict vote ID laws prior to the 2012 election. There was no evidence that the reporting was related to the actual rate of voter fraud in each state. Based on this data, the authors concluded that "parties and campaigns sought to place voter fraud on the political agenda in strategically important states to motivate their voting base ahead of the election".[108] Another 2015 study found a similar correlation between the enactment of voter ID laws and a state's electoral competitiveness, suggesting electioneering motives.[109]
A 2016 study found polarization over voter ID laws was less stark in state legislatures where electoral competition was not intense.[110] The same 2016 study found a notable relationship between the racial composition of a member’s district, region, and electoral competition, and the likelihood that a state lawmaker supported a voter ID bill.[110] The study found that "Democratic lawmakers representing substantial black district populations are more opposed to restrictive voter ID laws, whereas Republican legislators with substantial black district populations are more supportive."[110] Southern lawmakers (particularly Democrats) were more opposed to restrictive voter ID legislation.[110] Black legislators in the South were the least supportive of restrictive voter ID bills.[110]
A forthcoming study in American Politics Research finds that the adoption of voter ID laws is most likely when control of the governor’s office and state legislature switches to Republicans, and when the size of black and Latino populations in the state increases.[111]