不都是講 interest rate 下降,存量國債的價格會上升嗎,怎麽反而下降?
10 years treasury yield 09/18後反而增加, 是短期波動嗎, 還是有人預期到Fed降息不會快,力度也會小?
不都是講 interest rate 下降,存量國債的價格會上升嗎,怎麽反而下降?
10 years treasury yield 09/18後反而增加, 是短期波動嗎, 還是有人預期到Fed降息不會快,力度也會小?
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I have a detailed post on this a week ago...
-三心三意-
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09/26/2024 postreply
10:56:37
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Very insightful. What’s the reasonable price for TLT then.
-簡單好-
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09/26/2024 postreply
10:58:58
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When 20Y Bond yield at 4.5%, that's when u buy TLT again
-三心三意-
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09/26/2024 postreply
11:01:13
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Thanks!
-簡單好-
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09/26/2024 postreply
11:22:02
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I have been warning every1 to sell long bond since Fed's cut
-三心三意-
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09/26/2024 postreply
11:04:32
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短期利率下降 -> 經濟增長加快 -> 長期利率升高
-dividend_growth-
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09/26/2024 postreply
10:58:58
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長短期的倒掛已經消失,但spread還沒正常化。
-求索2014-
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09/26/2024 postreply
11:23:40
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最關健的是Fed目前給的終期過夜利率3%遠高於預測
-三心三意-
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09/26/2024 postreply
11:31:17
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是。否則長利預期也不會太高。但長短利差尚小,長利上浮空間大,也是關鍵。
-求索2014-
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09/26/2024 postreply
11:32:37
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