美國住房和城市發展部在每月更新的房地產指標最近的9月期裏，有這麽一段話：
Housing insecurity appears to have increased somewhat in August. HUD analysis of the Census Household Pulse Survey (Phase 4.2, Cycle July 23-August 19) shows that approximately 12.3 percent, or 5.7 million, renter households were behind on their rental payments in August, up from 12.0 percent, or 5.5 million, one year ago. An estimated 4.4 percent, or 2.03 million, renter households feared eviction was imminent in the next two months, up from 4.1 percent, or 1.87 million households, one year ago. Approximately 5.4 percent, or 4.47 million, homeowner households were behind on their mortgage payments in August, up from 5.3 percent, or 4.34 million, y/y. An estimated 1.11 percent, or 914,000 homeowners, feared foreclosure was imminent in the next two months, up from 0.98 percent, or 808,000 homeowners y/y.
房東們收租會更辛苦一些，也可以更耐心或策略一些。
關心房產市場的朋友也可以看看簡要報告：
National housing market indicators available as of September showed the status of overall activity in housing markets was mixed. Trends in some of the top indicators for this month include: • Purchases of new homes fell. New single-family home sales decreased 4.7 percent to 716,000 units (SAAR) in August from an upwardly revised pace of 751,000 in July but were 9.8 percent higher year-over-year (y/y). New home sales are based on purchase agreements, unlike existing home sales which are based on closings. Note that monthly data on new home sales tend to be volatile. (Sources: HUD and Census Bureau) • Existing home sales fell after increasing last month. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that August sales of existing homes (including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives) decreased 2.5 percent to 3.86 million units (SAAR) from a pace of 3.96 million in July and were down 4.2 percent y/y. Because existing home sales are based on closings, August sales reflect contract signings in June and July. Month-to-month (m/m) house prices have been mostly increasing modestly in the past several months, but mortgage rates, although declining are still relatively high, and inventories of existing homes for sale, although increasing, are still lean. • Construction of new homes increased. Single-family housing starts, at 992,000 units (SAAR) in August, were up 15.8 percent from an upwardly revised pace of 857,000 units in July and were 5.2 percent higher y/y. Multifamily housing starts (5+ units in a structure), at 333,000 units (SAAR), decreased 6.7 percent from a downwardly revised pace of 357,000 units in July and were 6.2 percent lower y/y. Note that m/m changes in multifamily starts are often volatile. Total starts, at 1.356 million units, were up 9.6 percent m/m and 3.9 percent y/y. (Sources: HUD, Census Bureau) • Annual house price gains continued to slow in July, with annual increases ranging from 4.5 to 5.9 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted (SA) purchase-only house price index for July estimated home values increased 0.13 percent m/m and 4.5 percent y/y, down from an annual gain of 5.3 percent in June. The non-SA CoreLogic Case-Shiller® 20-City Home Price Index posted a 0.04 percent m/m increase (0.3 percent SA) in home values in July and a 5.9-percent y/y gain, down from a 6.5-percent annual gain in June. Mortgage financing became more expensive after the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in April 2022. The Fed began to hold rates steady in July 2023 and then lowered rates in September 2024 for the first time in four years. House prices peaked in June 2022 and began to decline modestly, as the higher rates put downward pressure on prices. That trend reversed itself in February 2023, however, as current owners became increasingly reluctant to sell. Month-to-month SA house prices have been mostly rising modestly since. The FHFA (SA) index now stands at 8.9 percent above its June 2022 peak and the Case-Shiller index is 5.4 percent (SA) above its June 2022 peak. (Both price indices are released with a 2-month lag.) • The inventory of homes for sale rose for new and existing homes. The listed inventory of new homes for sale, at 467,000 units at the end of August, was up 1.7 percent m/m from a downwardly revised pace of 459,000 units in July and was 9.1 percent higher y/y. That inventory would support 7.8 months of sales at the current sales pace, up from 7.3 months in July. Available existing homes for sale, at 1.35 million units in August, increased 0.7 percent m/m from 1.34 million units in July and were 22.7 percent higher y/y. That inventory represents a 4.2-month supply, up from 4.1 months in July. • Homeowners’ equity increased in the second quarter of 2024 and the number of underwater borrowers declined. The Federal Reserve estimated that homeowners’ equity (total property value less mortgage debt outstanding) rose 5.0 percent, or $1.679 trillion, from the previous quarter and now stands at nearly $35.1 trillion, a new peak. The prior peak was nearly $33.4 trillion in the first quarter of 2024. Changes in home prices are the primary driver of gains or losses in equity. For the second quarter of 2024, CoreLogic estimated the number of underwater borrowers (those who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their home) declined by 42,000 from the first quarter to 956,300 borrowers, or 1.7 percent of residential properties with a mortgage, and were169,000 fewer than one year ago. • The rate of forbearance on mortgage loans increased for a third consecutive month. The MBA Forbearance Survey indicates the share of homeowners in August with mortgages in forbearance was 0.31 percent, or 155,000 households, up from 0.27 percent in July. The forbearance rate was 0.33 percent, or 165,000 households, one year ago. • Housing insecurity appears to have increased somewhat in August. HUD analysis of the Census Household Pulse Survey (Phase 4.2, Cycle July 23-August 19) shows that approximately 12.3 percent, or 5.7 million, renter households were behind on their rental payments in August, up from 12.0 percent, or 5.5 million, one year ago. An estimated 4.4 percent, or 2.03 million, renter households feared eviction was imminent in the next two months, up from 4.1 percent, or 1.87 million households, one year ago. Approximately 5.4 percent, or 4.47 million, homeowner households were behind on their mortgage payments in August, up from 5.3 percent, or 4.34 million, y/y. An estimated 1.11 percent, or 914,000 homeowners, feared foreclosure was imminent in the next two months, up from 0.98 percent, or 808,000 homeowners y/y. • Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) declined to their lowest level in two years in September. The average weekly rate on 30-year FRMs was 6.08 percent the week ending September 26, down from a weekly low of 6.35 percent in August. Mortgage rates began to rise in 2022 as the Fed raised interest rates, peaking at 7.79 percent in October 2023. Rates fluctuated at a relatively high rate since, declining with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut which took place in September 2024. (Source: Freddie Mac)
