建倉 URA + AMZN 基本麵和商業分析
寫於 2025 年 10 月 17 日（星期五）
昨晚設置了三個limit orders：URA、IBIT 和 AMZN。IBIT 之前已多次提及，這裏不再贅述。以下重點談談 URA 和 AMZN 的投資邏輯：
1. URA 限價單 @ $52.65/股 ，計劃投入 URA 資金的 1/3 建倉，並設置定投計劃，準備長期持有（至少3-5 年）。
投資理由：感興趣的壇友可以AI了解。我自己是因為前兩天讀了越王的一個貼後請教了幾位業內朋友，最終決定建倉 URA。看好其長期潛力。
2. AMZN 限價單 @ $212。這是我的第3次買入 AMZN。截至今日，我的平均持倉成本約為 $213。
3. AMZN 的基本麵和商業分析
首先從它的財報來看，我用英語寫了，比較省時間。值得關注點我加黑了。
1. Robust Revenue Growth: Over the past five years, AMZN’s revenue has doubled, achieving an impressive 16% average annual growth rate for a company of its scale, particularly in e-commerce.
— 5-Year average: Meta (19%), Google (18%), AMZN (16%), Microsoft (15%), Apple (8%).
— 2025 2Q average: Meta (19%), Google (13%), AMZN (11%), Microsoft (16%) Apple (8%)
2. AWS Dominance: AWS, AMZN’s high-margin crown jewel, is the backbone for many businesses, from startups to giants like Disney, Netflix, Adobe, Capital One and Pfizer. AWS’s operating margin surged from 25% in 2023 to 37% in 2024, showcasing its exceptional profitability.
3. Advertising Growth: Since 2023, AMZN’s advertising revenue growth (15%) has outpaced Google Search’s (12%). This discovery is intriguing, possibly driven by AMZN’s integration of ads into its e-commerce ecosystem? I’m not certain about the root cause but viewing it as a positive sign.
4. Earnings Strength: AMZN’s 5-year average EPS growth is a remarkable 38%, reflecting increasing per-share profitability as the company scales.
5. High ROIC: AMZN’s ROIC stands at ~20%, outperforming most consumer internet peers.
6. Valuation: With AMZN trading around $212, its forward P/E ratio is attractive for a growth company of its caliber, making detailed calculations almost unnecessary lol
7. E-Commerce Margin Pressure: Despite AMZN’s scale advantage in e-commerce, its profit margins remain thin. Competition from Walmart, Target, and emerging Chinese players like Shein and Temu (popular among younger consumers for affordable fashion) requires constant innovation to maintain market share.
8. E-Commerce Profitability Constraints: Over the past five years, AMZN’s e-commerce margins have been limited by high operational expenses (OPEX). While e-commerce is the foundation for other revenue streams like advertising, its physical operations create a double-edged sword, hindering AMZN’s ability to match the profit margins of Meta, Google, or Microsoft.
9. Low Free Cash Flow: AMZN’s free cash flow margin is currently ~3%, though management aims to improve this to 7–8%, which would enhance flexibility for investments and share buybacks.
10. Cloud Performance: In Q2 2025, AWS generated $25B in revenue, surpassing Google Cloud ($20B) and Microsoft Azure ($12B). However, Google Cloud and Azure are growing faster, indicating intensifying competition in the cloud sector.
從上麵的fundamental and business analysis, 大家應該可以看出AMZN的基本麵與它的peers相比喜憂參半，那麽為什麽最近一段時間股價被打壓呢？因為股價是前瞻性的，投資者在問自己，今後的一年，三年，五年十年這個公司的發展會怎樣。這今後的日子裏，毋庸置疑，誰玩得轉AI，誰是老大。那麽讓我們來看看AMZN 的AI開發——
META, GOOG,AMZN & MSFT 在AI上都投資巨大。in general, AMZN 強調開放平台和雲基礎設施，META聚焦開源和社會數據利用，GOOG推動研究主導的消費者集成，MSFT 則依賴夥伴關係實現企業深度嵌入。AMZN plans to invest $100B which includes a $4B stake in Anthropic and partnerships with Meta, Cohere, and others, majority of the investment allocated enhancing AWS’ AI capabilities. However, while AWS maintains cloud dominance, AMZN lags in consumer-facing AI (e.g., chatbots), which could impact its AI leadership perception. 到目前為止，AMZN 在基礎設施上強於META 的模型和GOOG 的企業份額，但弱於MSFT的企業滲透度。在我看來，AMZN 的AI開發前景還是樂觀的，AI將驅動AWS收入增長（預計占雲市場主導），受益於代理“App Store”潛力和社會電商推薦，而無核心業務破壞。
那麽假如AMZN 在這場AI之戰裏打敗了，它的股價會是多少呢，這是我最關心的。
AWS作為AMZN的旗艦Cloud service, 長期處於領先地位，但其增長速度相對於競爭對手正在放緩。2025年2Q， AWS的profitability growth 同比增長17.5%，而M-Azure和G-cloud分別增長39%和32%，兩者均得益於更強的AI整合。如果亞馬遜在AI方麵未能趕上，AWS可能會喪失市場份額, 因為其它企業會轉向擁有更先進AI工具的平台。至於growth 相比它的peers較弱的原因，當然主要是創新停滯和人才流失（leadership vision, company culture, and incentive structure …) 假設AWS profit growth decreases 25% due to its lagging in AI development, 它的PE肯定會被打壓。結合以上數據和分析，我的估值是：P10/$170, P50/$250, P90/$300
總結：我的持倉和投資計劃
I plan to continue accumulating AMZN shares if prices dip, with additional limit orders at $200，180 and 160 。
當然，從經濟模型的角度來看，p10和p90的概率都隻有10%，所以或許我並不能在那麽低的價位買入AMZN, 或許我也並不一定能看到一個重新輝煌的$300 plus 股價的AMZN, 但是我相信一兩年裏合理和比較現實的股價應該在$250附近. 當然，股市並不現實或合理，充斥了太多的情緒—- greed, fear, ignorance，manipulation ….. 在金錢麵前，你可以看到人性最陰暗的一麵。
