科技化。我們消費者應該拋棄對車的傳統認知，就像我們改變對原來電話的傳統認知一樣。
我非常看好中國的電車，現在的Xpeng, BYD, NIO, Geely 等，市場目標不同，希望能在激勵的市場競爭中無論是質量還是科技化都能勝出。中國要走出製造廉價低質產品的陰影，這是一個很好的機會。
所以我一直支持Tesla等在中國的投資，直接帶動了汽車行業的創新。中國幫助Tesla走出bankruptcy, 同時也推動了自己的汽車工業。自動駕駛是個瓶頸，但是中國大麵積的5G站建設為將來的自動駕駛打下了良好基礎，我認為中國在自動駕駛的開發上將來會超過Tesla.
下麵copied 是一位讀者對Toyata 在電車方麵對Tesla的觀點，認為Tesla是"work of art", 從中也可以看出大眾的視野。Jobs在開發iphone 曾經說過，消費者不知道他們要什麽，是我們告訴他們需要什麽。
Follow-Up “Toyota’s Decision” Below (28 Mar 2023)
Context information added below - can we trust this news story? Credit to Rick Collins’ Comment for asking the key question.
Short Answer: Yes, after tearing down a recent Tesla Model Y, senior Toyota engineers and managers describe the internals as, “…a work of art.”
Long Answer: Toyota was shocked by two factors, and likely overlooked two other factors that are incomprehensible to established auto manufacturers.
- Shock 1: The elegant and efficient (to manufacture and operate) design. They correctly concluded Tesla has far more integrated design - across vehicle systems - and aggressive innovation than Toyota practices.
- Shock 2: The pace of improvement. I suspect that Toyota tore down an early Tesla Model 3 about five years ago. The engineers would have continually laughed at poor body & chassis design as well as bungled assembly.
Toyota probably concluded they could out-compete Tesla with their eyes closed in 2018. Established auto manufacturers “know” that it takes at least five years to make major changes. Since the Model 3 looks exactly the same, and the Model Y reuses so many of its parts, Toyota wasn’t going to waste time and money doing another Tesla teardown in the insignificant (to them) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) category. Especially when they still grinned every time they told teardown stories about stone-age Model 3 body & assembly. - Overlooked Factor 1: Tesla’s aggressive drive for constant innovation, and the nearly-unique Agile capabilities that allow them to constantly introduce new capabilities, designs and features into running assembly lines. Usually without disruption. Even Munro & Associates, a respected lean design firm, has Agile manufacturing blind spots.
- Overlooked Factor 2: Tesla’s integration. This covers three dimensions:
- Different technology groups work together for full-system optimization.
- The entire process - design, sourcing and assembly - is integrated.
- Expertise is shared across Musk companies - Tesla, SpaceX, Boring company and NeuraLink.
Follow-Up: Toyota Announces Strategy - All Options, Hydrogen First, Battery-Electric in Lexus
From the outside, it seems that Toyota resumed its apparent denial and now believes:
- Hydrogen powered vehicles will be mainstream soon and should remain the company’s primary focus.
- Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) will not be important until nearly 2030. Though they could very well be superseded by Hydrogen-powered vehicles by then. Lexus will be the BEV incubator. Toyota seems to emulate Tesla’s strategy - introduce BEV with high-end cars that can repay the development costs, then move down-market.
- There will be continued strong global demand for combustion (ICE) and hybrid vehicles in both developed and developing countries.
Toyota’s made a lot more money in the auto industry than I have. Still, my experience with disruptive technologies suggests that Toyota is under-estimating the inconvenient BEV tsunami that has already risen to their ankles.
History may view this decision as the time when Toyota reaffirmed their commitment to failure. Similar to when the Titanic’s officers under-valued their spotter’s iceberg alert and continued forward at full speed. Or Kodak made desultory digital photography efforts on their way to oblivion.
The necessary BEV architecture and platform may be late and inadequate if they are the company’s second priority, limited to a single division. When Tesla introduced the Model S, it had no credible BEV competition, had better acceleration than nearly all combustion vehicles and the purchase included a home charger. When Lexus delivers its first BEV models there will be many credible competitors.
Context - Can We Trust This Automotive News Story?
Automotive News, a reliable industry journal, reported the story. I purchased a subscription to read the full original story. It includes the attribution, “Numerous executives described Toyota's new approach to Automotive News with the understanding that they would not be identified discussing internal planning.” In a company as loyal as Toyota, a large group of executives would only talk about such sensitive issues and bad news with a reporter if their leader had instructed them to do that.
My guess is that Koji Sato is setting direction and expectations as he assumes leadership. He probably wants to “level-set” and align employees and suppliers, also minimize frustration and disappointment in the market by telling people:
- The company now understands how far behind it is in the BEV market.
- The company recognizes it must start with the fundamentals. A no-compromise dedicated BEV platform. Not a “pretty good” global platform with ICE baggage. The story mentions many other areas where Toyota recognizes gaps.
- Toyota cannot quickly introduce a leading BEV-from-the-ground-up vehicle. For the next few years, Toyota can only work to improve products based on the vastly sub-optimal E-TNGA platform.
- Note: VW faces the same issue - non-competitive EVs handicapped by an ICE-compromised platform. VW has firmly decided to NOT address the problem. VW fired Herbert Diess, the leader who called it out, and indefinitely postponed their version of the program Koji-san’s team shared with the reporter.
My respect for Koji Sato has grown. He demonstrates clear vision with great courage to acknowledge and quickly communicate bad news. Also the wisdom to conceive and adopt such an approach to advance the company.
The bad news - Toyota lost many years and now faces tremendous challenges over the next five years. The good news - the company has the right leader. He has sounded the alarm and is aligning the company to work in unison towards a common objective. It’s possible the executives were instructed to talk to the press to ensure and demonstrate their alignment around and ownership of the situation.
Conclusion: Toyota is correctly amazed at Tesla’s lead. Toyota may not yet realize that Tesla’s products will be much further ahead by the time Toyota emulates the Model Y they recently tore down. Toyota must also endure huge organizational, cultural and process disruption if they intend to achieve a competitive position in the BEV market.
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