笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
正文
美國確證人數最多，峰期也還沒到，但難說說世界上迄今最慘的，意大利西班牙死的人都令人發抖，國家所受衝擊也最大。在中國，死亡的人數肯定不止三千，據公開的規矩，不在醫院死亡，或不是死於冠狀肺炎的，都不在統計數字之內，我瞎猜此次瘟疫引起的死亡人數大概有七千。
Some in our media can’t contain their glee & delight in reporting that the U.S. has more #CoronaVirus cases than #China— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 29, 2020
Beyond being grotesque,its bad journalism
We have NO IDEA how many cases China really has but without any doubt its significantly more than why they admit to
昨天說了，不論美國目前是不是最慘的，但按照真個趨勢肯定會變成最慘的，因為人口在哪兒，在中央主管的專家之一，Birx，原來很有聲譽、地位，但最近一把舔川，被人看成李蘭娟式的馬屁蟲，她也說十萬到二十萬是最好的結局，全國上上下下一心一意才行。
這有多少可能？
Across the country, social distancing is becoming a way to signal which side of the culture war you’re on. The consequences could be disastrous
別忘了，美國是個自由國度，生死事小，主義唯大。雖然伊朗數據大概有水分，但美國發展居然比伊朗還恐怖，十足體現了我們這個偉大國家的真實麵目：
（David Wallace-Wells）Coronavirus Shows Us America Is Broken
再給大家提提糟到什麽程度：今天測試盒子還是奇缺。
世界上大王們第一責任是邀功
全國這麽糟，紐約自然逃不了。
按照我前天引用的華大較為權威的預測（美國疫情發展，這個預測很恐怖），這是紐約的預測：
4月9日是醫療使用峰點，需要7萬張病床，缺近6萬，，急診室需要1萬1千張病床，缺1萬
現在每日死亡才開始爬升，逼近一千，大概10日才到峰期，總的死亡人數1萬5千
美國新聞自由，好了，這是現狀。
A supervisor urged surgeons at Columbia University Irving Medical Center in Manhattan to volunteer for the front lines because half the intensive-care staff had already been sickened by coronavirus.
“ICU is EXPLODING,” she wrote in an email.
A doctor at Weill Cornell Medical Center in Manhattan described the unnerving experience of walking daily past an intubated, critically ill colleague in her 30s, wondering who would be next.
Another doctor at a major New York City hospital described it as “a petri dish,” where more than 200 workers had fallen sick.
Two nurses in city hospitals have died
“It’s all a war zone,” one of the paramedics said
Days later, another paramedic, Phil Suarez, was dispatched to two homes in Manhattan’s Washington Heights neighborhood, where entire families, living in cramped apartments, appeared to be stricken with the virus.
“I’m terrified,” said Mr. Suarez, who has been a paramedic in New York City for 26 years and had assisted in rescue efforts during the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and later served in the Iraq war. “I honestly don’t know if I’m going to survive. I’m terrified of what I’ve already possibly brought home.”
Across the country in Washington state—which was then the seat of the country’s biggest COVID-19 hotspot—testing had been underway at the University of Washington, with whom Crawford was in regular contact. Doctors there were noticing an 8 percent positivity rate—that is, 8 percent of all the coronavirus tests they ran came back positive. In the world of laboratory science, that was considered extremely high. But when Northwell labs ran their first batch of tests on 20 samples, five came back positive, a 25 percent positivity rate. This was an astonishingly high—and frightening—number.
"We are chasing the virus," Crawford says, "and the virus is getting ahead of us."
“The data will begin to show when we have turned a corner,” Crawford told me. “And we haven’t yet.”
也許這個最恐怖：
《嗡鳴快信（Buzzfeed News）》A Nurse Shared A Harrowing Photo Of COVID-19 Victims To Show How Horrifying The Outbreak Is
目前全世界印度、巴西是個迷，鬼才知道咋回事，非洲呢？十天前說你沒注意，“習近平世界大戰”已經開打了，還真是那麽一回事。
窩家等著亞馬遜、Costco送貨上門，還能等到那天？
其實，就差倆字：尊嚴！
"我瞎猜此次瘟疫引起的死亡人數大概有七千。"
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這個有點靠譜，官方好像也默認。前期未檢測的死亡人數沒有計算在內。
紐約成不了武漢，武漢後來的醫護的達到了20萬，基本上是3個醫護管一個病人。中國可以集全國之力支持武漢，美國的狀況好像不太可能了。
change.org/p/congress-everyone-wears-a-face-mask-to-combat-coronavirus
冠狀病毒從無症狀的人傳播到他人是一個嚴重的問題。許多人感染了冠狀病毒, 但從未表現出任何症狀, 或者症狀很輕, 以至於他們從未意識到自己感染了冠狀病毒。今天, 有症狀的人將被隔離, 但在確認感染該病毒之前, 他們可能已經傳給了很多人。口罩會讓這種情形變得不同。如果您感染了冠狀病毒, 口罩將阻止您擴散到他人。如果您還沒有感染冠狀病毒, 則麵罩將減少您被感染的機會。在其他國家與這種新型冠狀病毒的鬥爭中, 口罩已證實有效。非醫務人員不需要N95口罩, 隻需要常規手術口罩。口罩的成本比經濟成本和醫療費用便宜得多。口罩, 社交疏遠和洗手將共同幫助美國戰勝冠狀病毒。美國已經付出沉重代價。一旦病毒卷土重來回來後, 我們負擔不起再一次的隔離。我們正在與冠狀病毒賽跑。我們必須為我們的國家美國做好準備。國會需要通過一項立法, 1.優先為醫療人員提供個人保護設備(包括口罩); 2.支持在美國國內生產口罩; 3.在大流行期間, 在所有公共場所強製使用口罩。
數字能不造假嗎？
"我瞎猜此次瘟疫引起的死亡人數大概有七千。"
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恐怕全世界都是如此，真實的死亡人數可以在統計數字上乘以一個係數。德國如此，日本如此。美國也如此。
但統計數據給出了一個比較可靠的指標，而且這個指標可以用來在不同國家之間比較。這才是統計的用處。
難道武漢的2500多不是人？
前期是因為醫療資源不夠，無法確診收治，這是技術性的
武漢透明
? ? ? ?
比較客觀。我的估算是在武漢因為新冠死亡的大概是官方的2倍，依據就是有一天把CT作為確診計入時，死亡數加倍，同時大概還有次生災害(因為肺炎而無法救助的一些急性病患者)的死亡數，這個比較難以估計，大概0.5-1倍，合起來武漢死亡數大致在5，500-7，000