雜記●草稿

《一財》
今年地方債券規模預計膨脹近半 利率上行壓力增大
今年地方政府發債有哪些不同
《彭博》It's Never Been This Hard for Chinese Debtors to Pay Interest
 

一個問題猜出你是否1%那族：你隻吃有機嗎？
At Tampa Bay farm-to-table restaurants, you’re being fed fiction

 

 

 

 

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亞特蘭特聯儲分行工資實時數據：

 

 

紐約聯儲預測工具（參見）：

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《彭博》The Party's Over
 

股市否極泰來？

我對（美國）股市的悲觀態度，在股市為什麽跌？一文裏詳述了，今天故事開升收降，不是好兆頭，盡管原油接著上漲，連高盛都不信：
Even Goldman Says OPEC Doha Meeting Will Be A Dud: "Don't Expect A Bullish Surprise"
（高盛推薦具體股票不靠譜，高盛對經濟的判斷一般還中肯。）

 

瑞信的“恐懼參數”達到曆史最高：

《有線電視CNN》老土大眾“恐懼貪婪指標”卻未見恐懼端倪：

瑞信的參數體現了大家憂慮重重，買保險（看跌期權，Put Option）的居多，不過從市場波動率（VIX）來看，毫無“恐懼”的跡象：

場波動率偏差比不高：

多空期權比值也不屬極端：

熊多牛少？毫無跡象

股票投資占程度高，持現金的極低

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《彭博》U.S. Braces for Worst Earnings Season Since 2009 Crisis: Chart

在悲觀氣氛充斥股市之際，大家紛紛出來說“到底了”，“否極泰來“。

《華爾街日報博文》
Why Earnings Season Might Be as Bad as Expected
Here’s a Sign Corporate Earnings Could Be Bottoming
《路透社》Weak U.S. earnings expectations set stage for stock gains
《華爾街日報市場觀察MarketWatch》
Opinion: An earnings recession can actually help stocks rise
Why the worst earnings quarter since 2009 may be a good thing
《商業有線電視CNBC》Earnings decline may not mean bad news for stocks
美銀美林內部客戶也是極端悲觀：BAML: Everyone is way too bearish

BofA Warns "Europe Looks Frightening" - Trades Like 2001, 2008
"This Is Where The Good News Ends" - JPM Says All Margin Subcomponents Are Rolling Over
Deutsche Bank Says World "Past The Point Of No Return" In The Default Cycle
What The Charts Say: 15 "Risks" To The Recent Rally
Market’s Hanging On Every Word! 04-08-16
 

對牛市來說這不是好消息：
Facebook, Inc.'s User Engagement Appears to Be Peaking    
 

美國小業主行會叫NFIB（National Federation of Small Business）信心3月還是不妙，有跌破經濟蕭條界線的意味：

3月零售環比下降0.3%：

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衰退的巨人，還是（世界）經濟的支柱？

今年三月《金融時報》有一部中國經濟概論的專欄，起了個嚇唬人的標題叫做“中國奇跡的尾聲（The end of the Chinese miracle）”，描述了中國經濟崛起的奇跡，在城鄉大移民、城市化這一宏大的背景下以“廉價勞動力”為基礎的經濟發展模式走到了盡頭，除了信貸泛濫，產能過剩的，市場全麵通縮（deflation）外，中國經濟還進入了經濟學家們常說的“路易斯拐點”（Lewis Turning Point），就是說農村能提供的勞動力已經到了盡頭，沒法再城市化，給經濟不停滯的發展提供動力。

據說中國企業甚至從越南進口勞工來解決短缺的困境。《金融時報》說以後印度人口年輕，有取代中國成為世界工廠的能力，不過短期內中國的困境對世界經濟反而成為一個嚴重的威脅。

《經濟學人雜誌Growth and China》2013.01.31
China approaching the turning point

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

《國際貨幣基金組織論文》2013.01Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
 

確實確實，中國問題多多，難處大，處境惡略，大有給世界經濟“拖後腿”的意思，全世界除了美國能量大能自給之外，大家叫苦連天，都抱怨中國成了大家的負擔。

然而事實確實如此嗎？

《國際貨幣基金組織》剛剛發表了對世界經濟最新的預測：

《國際貨幣基金組織世界經濟展望2016.04》IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (WEO)：Too Slow for Too Long
《彭博》IMF Warns of Global Stagnation as It Cuts Growth Outlook Again

《彭博》對此給大家解釋了一下：哀鴻遍地，不過唯一的驕傲是中國。
參見：IMF警告全球經濟增長停滯：中國是唯一亮點 最不看好日本

• 下調美國和歐元區今年經濟增速0.2個百分點至2.4%和1.5%
• 最不看好日本——腰斬日本經濟增速預期至0.5%，認為日本經濟明年將萎縮0.1%。
• 上調了中國今明兩年經濟增長預期各0.2%

《第一財經》IMF上調中國2016年經濟增速至6.5% 下調全球
《路透社》一係列的報道：
IMF cuts global growth outlook again, warns of political risks
TIMF cuts global economic forecast, again
IMF says 'very real' Brexit risk could deal blow to world economy

China's economic fix a millstone for world trade-IMF
U.S. to push G20, IMF members on currency, infrastructure issues
國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家Maurice Obstfeld的評論：Global Growth: Too Slow for Too Long
投資者對全局的判斷也悲觀：
《華爾街日報網文》BlackRock’s Larry Fink Strikes Pessimistic Tone on Global Economy in Letter
對日本尤甚：
The world's largest investor says negative rates are breeding a disaster for the economy

人口結構變化決定中國經濟未來走勢
 

《華郵》China is the only emerging market that matters

 

《第一財經》一季度經濟溫和複蘇 總理強調就業穩金融穩

《華爾街見聞》發改委：中國一季度經濟實現開門紅是實事求是、有充分依據的

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《觀察者網》李克強2016春節團拜會講話：通過改革消除製約發展的一切束縛

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《第一財經》
一文看懂今年中央7.8萬億財政收入從哪來
中央財政預算8.5萬億 這筆錢該怎麽花？
一般公共預算支出85885億元，比去年增長6.3%
地方政府承擔了許多公共服務職能，中央通過稅收返還和轉移支付形式，給地方政府58030億元
餘下的一般公共預算中，中央本級支出預算為27355億元，中央預備費（即不安排具體支出）為500億元
從功能分類來看，這27355億元將主要花在國防（9544億元）、債務付息（3299億元）、科技（2706億元）、公共安全（1668億元）、教育（1408億元）等十餘個具體領域
金融支出（93.7%）、社會保障和就業支出（22.8%）、醫療衛生與計劃生育支出（47.2%）、債務付息支出（15.1%）、一般公共服務支出（13.7%）
由工資福利支出（4279.74億元）、商品和服務支出（3609.7億元）、對個人和家庭的補助（2609.59億元）和其他資本性支出（58.95億元）四部分組成
《第一財經》中金：8張圖看懂2萬億基建項目資金去哪了？










國務院通過“成渝城市群”發展規劃
國務院總理李克強3月30日主持召開國務院常務會議，決定新設一批國家自主創新示範區，部署推進上海加快建設科技創新中心；新設河南鄭洛新、山東半島、遼寧沈大3個國家自主創新示範區；通過《成渝城市群發展規劃》，強調要以強化重慶、成都輻射帶動作用為基礎，建設引領西部開發開放的城市群。（新華網）

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資料：《鳳凰財經專欄》從朱鎔基到李克強：總理的難題

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《金融時報》
China’s ‘migrant miracle’ nears an end as cheap labour dwindles
（中文版：當中國遭遇“劉易斯拐點”）Flow of rural labour that powered three-decade boom is petering out
May 4, 2015, Gabriel Wildau in Shanghai

China’s labour force is shrinking and the “migrant miracle” that powered its industrial rise is mostly exhausted, removing the factors that propelled the country’s meteoric development, according to leading economists.

The transformation will lead to slower growth, reduced investment and a loss of export competitiveness, they warn, increasing the urgency of implementing ambitious economic reforms aimed at finding new sources of expansion.

Today the Financial Times begins a series of articles on the end of the migrant miracle — the three decades of breakneck economic growth fuelled by the unprecedented migration of labour from the unproductive farm sector to work in factories and on construction sites.

Broad consensus has emerged that China has reached its “Lewis Turning Point” — the point at which the once-inexhaustible pool of surplus rural labour dries up and wages rise rapidly. Nobel-prize winning economist Arthur Lewis argued in the 1950s that a developing country with surplus agricultural labour could develop its industrial sector for years without wage inflation as it absorbed that surplus.

“Now we are at the so-called Lewis inflection point. I made this forecast in 2006, and today there is no need to change it,” said Ha Jiming, chief investment strategist for private wealth management at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong and formerly chief economist at China International Capital Corp, the country's first Sino-foreign joint venture investment bank.

“The working-age share of China’s population peaks this year at 72 per cent, then it will start to fall rapidly, even more rapidly than what we saw in Japan in the 1990s,” he added.

Cai Fang, vice-president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a think-tank that advises the government, estimates that China’s potential gross domestic product growth decreased from 9.8 per cent in 1995-2009 to 7.2 per cent in 2011-15 and 6.1 per cent from 2016-20.

A shrinking labour force is one of the main drivers. Since Deng Xiaoping launched market reforms in 1978, 278m migrant workers from rural villages have moved to work in the cities.

But reallocating labour from farm to factory — resulting in higher overall growth as workers’ productivity soars — is now mostly complete.

“From 2005 to 2010, the growth rate of migrant workers was 4 per cent. Last year it was only 1.3 per cent. Maybe this year it will contract,” said Mr Cai.

China faces the more difficult task of raising productivity within the urban sector through improved capital allocation, technology and management acumen.

The second trend is an ageing population and the effects of the one-child policy, which has started to influence the number of young workers entering the labour force. As in developed countries such as Germany and Japan, the ranks of the elderly are rising. Ma Jiantang, director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said the population aged 15 to 60 peaked in 2011.

“The excess rural surplus labour is nearly exhausted — China is reaching its Lewis Turning Point,” the World Bank said last year.

Economists debate the precise date of the turning point based on inconsistent data and contrasting theoretical models. Some say that due to varying regional labour market conditions, it is more precise to speak of a “turning period” rather than a single point. But the basic measure is not in doubt.

“The fact that we have now passed the Lewis Turning Point is 100 per cent,” said Ross Garnaut, an economist at Australian National University and co-editor of a collection of papers on China.

 

 

 

奧巴馬采訪

全國公共廣播電台（National Public Radio，NPR）

全國廣播公司(National Broadcasting Company，NBC)2014.09.07

福斯新聞電視台（FOX News）
全

 

 

征服全球的卡夫（Kraft）費城牌奶油奶酪（Cream Cheese）

原味型

 

半脂型

 

無脂型

 

泡泡（whipped）型

 

香料型

 

訥雪得（Neufchâtel）型

 

深受人們喜愛的奶酪蛋糕

大名鼎鼎的紐約奶酪蛋糕：
1929 - Arnold Reuben, owner of the legendary Turf Restaurant at 49th and Broadway in New York City, claimed that his family developed the first cream-cheese cake recipe. Other bakeries relied on cottage cheese. According to legend, he was served a cheese pie in a private home, and he fell in love with the dessert. Using his hostess’ recipe and a pie she made with ingredients he provided, he then began to develop his own recipe for the perfect cheesecake. Reuben soon began to serve his new recipe in his Turf Restaurant, and the cheesecake quickly became very popular with the people who frequented Reuben’s Broadway restaurant.
奶油奶酪乃主要材料

 

 

（民主黨總統競選人）閑得死（Bernie Sanders）有許多吸引選民的“革命性的”提議，其中之一是免費大學。從下麵形象的的統計可以意識到大家為什麽覺得這是個問題：

（點擊放大）

華爾街日報（參見）的報道（要交錢才能看）：
More Than 40% of Student Borrowers Aren’t Making Payments

• $1.2 trillion student-loan
• 43% of the roughly 22 million Americans with federal student loans weren’t making payments as of Jan. 1

（美國）學生債總數目過1萬2千億，超過了信用卡債，人均35000美元(據此文，“That number jumps to $51,000 for a master’s degree, $71,000 for a Ph.D. and $207,000 for medical school”）。經濟學家把學生債居高認作是美國經濟的一大障礙，青年人不願意、沒能力成家（生孩子）購房，經濟發展就少了個重要的推力。當然了，學生債隻是美國社會的一個縮影，據蓋勒普調查：
Americans Are Buried Under a Mountain of Debt

紐約聯儲分行的季度報告也是大家關注的資料來源：

學生債愈趨惡略：

下圖為媒體廣泛留意，都覺得嬰兒潮一代（55歲以上）在過去十年全靠築債苟存：

回到學生債的話題，這是按畢業年度債務的分布：

越來越多，《美國今日》有詳細的報道，參見紐約時報。

 

《路透社》Millennials face debt - and denial
《彭博》Can You Use Student Loans to Go on Spring Break?
"To me, it's not the proper use, but taxpayers aren’t necessarily being ripped off by a small number of students who are mismanaging their money," Draeger said of students who use loans for vacations. "Federal loans and private education loans get repaid. I’m not saying it’s not a problem, but if we overreact to the problem, I’m not sure we create any real solutions. The whole idea of student aid is to get people who would otherwise not have attended into college. If we put too many barriers up, we squeeze out those at-risk, on-the-fringe students."

As a senior, Almon was given a loan check of $1,500. He took a third of it and planned a spring break vacation.
"When I got out of school, those first couple years, working and paying down those student loans...it was kind of painful," he said. "Even though I was making some sacrifices to pay that money back, I do not for one second regret that money I spent to go to Cancún."

《公共電視台晚間新聞》NYC community colleges invest in student support to boost grad rates

專欄評論
《華爾街日報》Bernie Sanders and the Soak-the-Rich Myth
《紐約時報》
《經濟學人》
《全國公共電台NPR（Natiohnal Public Radio）》芝加哥大學經濟學家評判
Economists On Candidates' Proposals: Mostly Bad
 

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/021716/how-student-loan-debt-shaping-2016-election.asp

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-17/washington-may-not-want-to-get-out-of-student-debt