笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
【騰博】
Fake Invoice Doubts Revived as China Trade Skyrockets
Russia Seeks China Support for Rosneft, Blacklisted State Banks
Putin Deals China Winning Hand as Sanctions Power Rival
China-Russia is a match made in heaven, and that’s scary
Anatole Kaletsky May 22, 2014
（舊文）
中俄擬簽定總值超600億美元石油合約，鳳凰網，2013年06月21日
中俄擬簽總值超600億美元石油合約，中國經濟網，2013年06月21日
中俄簽供油協議 俄將向中方出口2700億美元原油，2013-06-22
【央台】
[國防軍事] 《大家談》 2014年合集
【個人自由】
Glenn Greenwald on TED: Why privacy matters
【亞太峰會習安會】
（2014-09-15）China to mend relations with neighbors before APEC summit: commentary
（經濟學人，Oct 4th 2014）Japan and China Edging closer，Who’ll bet on a meeting soon between the leaders of China and Japan?
（經濟學人，October 9, 2014）Japan And China Seeking A Limited Truce? – Analysis
（7 Oct 2014）Why a Xi-Abe Meeting Is Not Important
【中國，南亞、中東、東非】
【雜】
When to pull the plug on a dying startup company
【美國民眾債務狀況】
Total Nonrevolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NONREVSL
Securitized Consumer Nonrevolving Credit, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NREVNSEC
Total Revolving Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REVOLSL
Securitized Consumer Revolving Credit, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/REVOLNSEC
Total Consumer Credit Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSL
Securitized Total Consumer Loans, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSEC
Credit nation? HELOCs up 20.6% year-over-year
LET’S BORROW AGAINST OUR HOMES LIKE IT’S 2006
The Home ATM Is Back: HELOCs Surge To 2008 Levels
Motor Vehicle Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MVLOAS
Student Loans Owned and Securitized, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SLOAS
Total Real Estate Loans Owned and Securitized by Finance Companies, Outstanding
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DTRTM
Securitized Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SREACBM027NBOG
益博睿（中文網站）關於美國2014年第二季度美國汽車貸款報告。
參見：http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-13/meet-preferred-subprime-cars-ranking-most-popular-car-loans-and-leases-fico-score
《華人經濟學家:美國人家庭平均收入到底多高？》
看來大家覺得這是好文，估計還權威，到處轉載，說作者王健是美國達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行高級經濟學家，經濟學博士。了不起。原文在哪，不知道。中國網站、博客轉載（抄）他人的東西，別說出處，往往連作者是誰都不提，要命。
嗬嗬，看來我的美國私人財富創曆史新高也不差，這是裏麵的插圖：
做個筆記。
這是我的美國可支配收入圖：
2013年底全國總（可支配）收入十三萬億兩千六百六十九一美元（$13,266.9B），美國人口大概是三億一千六百六十九萬，故此2013年底人均美國可支配收入是四萬一千九百九十六美元（41996，這是均值，不是中值）。一家四口也確實到了十六萬多了，按美國人均家庭人口2.6人算，一家是十萬九百一十一（10911）美元。無疑，如王文所說，均值不代表貧富分布。
王文接著說起美國人口統計局的美國人口五等分的收入數據。這裏有兩個初等錯誤。第一是王把美國經濟分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）和人口局（Census Bureau）的數據混淆起來了。美國經濟分析局說的是所有“可支配收入”，而人口局說的是正常收入。你把王文裏的表格的五個數字平均一下，那是73767美元，遠不是10911。兩者的區別在於可支配收入包括政府救濟，如社保、醫保。順便說說，美國政府救濟分量很大，我在美國私人財富創曆史新高一文裏說了，數字也能看出來。我也反複說了，美國經濟翻身，美國政府的經濟救濟是第一大因素。
第二，美國對中產階級沒有明確的定義，不知道“把收入位於40%到80%之間的家庭定義為中產”是否合適。比如中產階級可指
The American middle class is a social class in the United States.[1][2] While the concept is typically ambiguous in popular opinion and common language use,[3]contemporary social scientists have put forward several more or less congruent theories on the American middle class. Depending on the class model used, the middle class constitutes anywhere from 25% to 66% of households.
上述的維基文資料挺多的。
“Sociologist Leonard Beeghley identifies a male making $57,000 and a female making $40,000 with a combined households income of $97,000 as a typical middle-class family.“
對比一下王說的”美國中產家庭的年收入大概在5萬3千到8萬4千美元之間“。
王還說”一些人認識美國的成功人士，就把美國誇成人間天堂，甚至編造美國看病上學不要錢的謊言。而另外一些人則片麵強調美國負麵現象，把美國形容成一個被富人把持，多數人苦不堪言的地獄“，同意，中國人的觀點通常較極端。不過美國中產前景也不樂觀，參見我的另一篇短文：
美國中產遙遙不見天日
【網站】
Tiananmen's Tremendous Achievements
現在國內刊登、解讀國外報道真快，不簡單：
解讀瑞信2014全球財富報告：最富的10%人口控製了各國多少財富？
2014-10-16 10:23:23
【香料包】
世界香料包
香料包配方
常見香料，常見香料
世界各地香料包產品
A Trip Around The World, By Way Of Seasonings
【你有錢嗎？】
Richard E. Grant's Hotel Secrets
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-15/chinese-home-buying-binge-transforms-california-suburb-arcadia
【中、印、美總產值比較】
下麵是一個分析。
| 總產值（萬億） | 總產值（萬億） | 總產值（萬億） | 總產值（萬億） | 總產值（萬億） | ||||||
| 中國一 | 9 | 印度一 | 1.7 | 印度二 | 1.7 | 美國 | 17 | 中國二 | 9 | |
| 2014 | 8.00% | 9.72 | 8.00% | 1.84 | 8.00% | 1.84 | 3.00% | 17.51 | 8.00% | 9.72 |
| 2015 | 7.50% | 10.45 | 8.00% | 1.98 | 8.00% | 1.98 | 3.00% | 18.04 | 7.60% | 10.46 |
| 2016 | 7.00% | 11.18 | 8.00% | 2.14 | 8.00% | 2.14 | 3.00% | 18.58 | 7.20% | 11.21 |
| 2017 | 6.50% | 11.91 | 8.00% | 2.31 | 8.00% | 2.31 | 3.00% | 19.13 | 6.80% | 11.97 |
| 2018 | 6.00% | 12.62 | 8.00% | 2.50 | 8.00% | 2.50 | 3.00% | 19.71 | 6.40% | 12.74 |
| 2019 | 5.50% | 13.32 | 8.00% | 2.70 | 8.00% | 2.70 | 3.00% | 20.30 | 6.00% | 13.50 |
| 2020 | 5.00% | 13.98 | 8.00% | 2.91 | 8.00% | 2.91 | 3.00% | 20.91 | 5.60% | 14.26 |
| 2021 | 4.50% | 14.61 | 8.00% | 3.15 | 8.00% | 3.15 | 3.00% | 21.54 | 5.20% | 15.00 |
| 2022 | 4.00% | 15.20 | 8.00% | 3.40 | 8.00% | 3.40 | 3.00% | 22.18 | 4.80% | 15.72 |
| 2023 | 3.50% | 15.73 | 8.00% | 3.67 | 8.00% | 3.67 | 3.00% | 22.85 | 4.40% | 16.41 |
| 2024 | 3.00% | 16.20 | 7.50% | 3.95 | 8.00% | 3.96 | 3.00% | 23.53 | 4.00% | 17.07 |
| 2025 | 2.50% | 16.60 | 7.00% | 4.22 | 8.00% | 4.28 | 3.00% | 24.24 | 4.00% | 17.75 |
| 2026 | 2.00% | 16.94 | 6.50% | 4.50 | 8.00% | 4.62 | 3.00% | 24.97 | 4.00% | 18.46 |
| 2027 | 2.00% | 17.27 | 6.00% | 4.77 | 8.00% | 4.99 | 3.00% | 25.71 | 4.00% | 19.20 |
| 2028 | 2.00% | 17.62 | 5.50% | 5.03 | 8.00% | 5.39 | 3.00% | 26.49 | 4.00% | 19.97 |
| 2029 | 2.00% | 17.97 | 5.00% | 5.28 | 8.00% | 5.82 | 3.00% | 27.28 | 4.00% | 20.77 |
| 2030 | 2.00% | 18.33 | 5.00% | 5.54 | 8.00% | 6.29 | 3.00% | 28.10 | 4.00% | 21.60 |
| 2031 | 2.00% | 18.70 | 5.00% | 5.82 | 8.00% | 6.79 | 3.00% | 28.94 | 4.00% | 22.46 |
| 2032 | 2.00% | 19.07 | 5.00% | 6.11 | 8.00% | 7.34 | 3.00% | 29.81 | 4.00% | 23.36 |
| 2033 | 2.00% | 19.45 | 5.00% | 6.42 | 8.00% | 7.92 | 3.00% | 30.70 | 4.00% | 24.30 |
| 2034 | 2.00% | 19.84 | 5.00% | 6.74 | 8.00% | 8.56 | 3.00% | 31.63 | 4.00% | 25.27 |
| 2035 | 2.00% | 20.24 | 5.00% | 7.07 | 8.00% | 9.24 | 3.00% | 32.57 | 4.00% | 26.28 |
| 2036 | 2.00% | 20.64 | 5.00% | 7.43 | 8.00% | 9.98 | 3.00% | 33.55 | 4.00% | 27.33 |
| 2037 | 2.00% | 21.06 | 5.00% | 7.80 | 8.00% | 10.78 | 3.00% | 34.56 | 4.00% | 28.42 |
| 2038 | 2.00% | 21.48 | 5.00% | 8.19 | 8.00% | 11.64 | 3.00% | 35.59 | 4.00% | 29.56 |
| 2039 | 2.00% | 21.91 | 5.00% | 8.60 | 8.00% | 12.57 | 3.00% | 36.66 | 4.00% | 30.74 |
| 2040 | 2.00% | 22.35 | 5.00% | 9.03 | 8.00% | 13.58 | 3.00% | 37.76 | 4.00% | 31.97 |
| 2041 | 2.00% | 22.79 | 5.00% | 9.48 | 8.00% | 14.67 | 3.00% | 38.89 | 4.00% | 33.25 |
| 2042 | 2.00% | 23.25 | 5.00% | 9.95 | 8.00% | 15.84 | 3.00% | 40.06 | 4.00% | 34.58 |
| 2043 | 2.00% | 23.71 | 5.00% | 10.45 | 8.00% | 17.11 | 3.00% | 41.26 | 4.00% | 35.97 |
| 2044 | 2.00% | 24.19 | 5.00% | 10.98 | 8.00% | 18.48 | 3.00% | 42.50 | 4.00% | 37.41 |
| 2045 | 2.00% | 24.67 | 5.00% | 11.52 | 8.00% | 19.95 | 3.00% | 43.78 | 4.00% | 38.90 |
| 2046 | 2.00% | 25.17 | 5.00% | 12.10 | 8.00% | 21.55 | 3.00% | 45.09 | 4.00% | 40.46 |
| 2047 | 2.00% | 25.67 | 5.00% | 12.71 | 8.00% | 23.27 | 3.00% | 46.44 | 4.00% | 42.08 |
| 2048 | 2.00% | 26.18 | 5.00% | 13.34 | 8.00% | 25.14 | 3.00% | 47.84 | 4.00% | 43.76 |
| 2049 | 2.00% | 26.71 | 5.00% | 14.01 | 8.00% | 27.15 | 3.00% | 49.27 | 4.00% | 45.51 |
| 2050 | 2.00% | 27.24 | 5.00% | 14.71 | 8.00% | 29.32 | 3.00% | 50.75 | 4.00% | 47.33 |
| 2051 | 2.00% | 27.79 | 5.00% | 15.44 | 8.00% | 31.66 | 3.00% | 52.27 | 4.00% | 49.22 |
| 2052 | 2.00% | 28.34 | 5.00% | 16.22 | 8.00% | 34.20 | 3.00% | 53.84 | 4.00% | 51.19 |
| 2053 | 2.00% | 28.91 | 5.00% | 17.03 | 8.00% | 36.93 | 3.00% | 55.45 | 4.00% | 53.24 |
| 2054 | 2.00% | 29.49 | 5.00% | 17.88 | 8.00% | 39.89 | 3.00% | 57.12 | 4.00% | 55.37 |
| 2055 | 2.00% | 30.08 | 5.00% | 18.77 | 8.00% | 43.08 | 3.00% | 58.83 | 4.00% | 57.58 |
| 2056 | 2.00% | 30.68 | 5.00% | 19.71 | 8.00% | 46.52 | 3.00% | 60.60 | 4.00% | 59.89 |
| 2057 | 2.00% | 31.29 | 5.00% | 20.70 | 8.00% | 50.25 | 3.00% | 62.41 | 4.00% | 62.28 |
| 2058 | 2.00% | 31.92 | 5.00% | 21.73 | 8.00% | 54.26 | 3.00% | 64.29 | 4.00% | 64.77 |
| 2059 | 2.00% | 32.55 | 5.00% | 22.82 | 8.00% | 58.61 | 3.00% | 66.22 | 4.00% | 67.36 |
| 2060 | 2.00% | 33.21 | 5.00% | 23.96 | 8.00% | 63.29 | 3.00% | 68.20 | 4.00% | 70.06 |
| 2061 | 2.00% | 33.87 | 5.00% | 25.16 | 8.00% | 68.36 | 3.00% | 70.25 | 4.00% | 72.86 |
| 2062 | 2.00% | 34.55 | 5.00% | 26.41 | 8.00% | 73.83 | 3.00% | 72.36 | 4.00% | 75.78 |
| 2063 | 2.00% | 35.24 | 5.00% | 27.73 | 8.00% | 79.73 | 3.00% | 74.53 | 4.00% | 78.81 |
【經濟預測】
OECD（長期）
Main
Looking to 2060: Long-term global growth prospects
LOOKING TO 2060: A GLOBAL VISION OF LONG-TERM GROWTH
Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years
SHIFTING GEAR: POLICY CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS
Global Trade and Specialisation Patterns Over the Next 50 Years
Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years
IMF（短期)
Main
2014年4月西半球：Regional Economic Outlook
Regional Main
OCT 14:World Economic Outlook:Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties (World Economic and Financial Surveys)
Update
Annual Reports
彭博：Asia Stocks Decline After IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast
