8萬單位幾年內湧入市場 私宅業者擔心消化不良

李敏雯 (2010-11-26)

超過8萬個新私宅單位將在未來幾年內湧到市場上來。好些市場人士擔心市場消化不良，有些甚至希望政府減少正選名單上的供應量，而他們都不認為這大批供應量能把私宅價格降下來。 　　根據國家發展部昨天提供的數據，截至今年第三季，新加坡的潛在私宅供應量已經上升至6萬4358個單位，如果包括今年下半年售地計劃下已經賣出或即將賣出的另外7700個單位，那麽潛在供應量已經達到8萬零200個單位。 　　國際產業顧問（IPA）總裁邱瑞榮受訪時說：“8萬多個潛在供應量相等於未來五年內，每年有1萬6000個單位領取臨時入夥準證，這比目前平均每年有8000多個單位入夥，要高出一倍。” 　　比目前供應量高一倍 　　仲量聯行(JLL)研究部主管蔡炎亮博士也說：“政府這次采用更強硬的方法，繼續讓市場供應充沛，預示資產膨脹將產生的嚴重影響……然而基於市場可能供應過剩，我們更希望政府把焦點放在更具彈性的備售名單上。” 　　戴德梁行研究部主管蔡楚芬也持同樣擔憂。她說，如果發展商將這些供應“吃”下來，市場將在未來幾年出現大量未完工單位。屆時若西方經濟仍沒有起色，全球增長不強勁，那就產生問題，因為這麽多單位卻隻追著更小群的住戶；但要是西方經濟好轉，利率也隨之上升，那也會打擊到購買需求。 　　第一太平戴維斯（Savills）高級經理孫燕清卻指出，區域國家紛紛出台政策圍堵熱錢，新加坡可能會因此吸引更多外來投資，因此能有助吸納過剩的供應。 　　明年上半年的30幅私宅地皮，大多數位於鄰裏組屋區，也就是中央區外（OCR），另外七幅位於其他中央區（RCR），也就是本地的中檔私宅地區，使私宅仍保持在大眾可負擔得起的水平。 　　今年私宅官地 共68億4000萬元 　　世邦魏理仕執行董事李曉和指出，光是今年，政府已賣出27幅私宅或包含住宅的綜合用途官地，總成交額達68億4000萬元。 　　邱瑞榮指出，發展商繼續標地，不能被看作是市場有需求的主因。“發展商都是上市公司，對股東來說，發展商若不進場或在同一地區被競爭對手標到更低價位的地皮，都會影響股價，因此每次有招標，還是會有發展商進場，但這並非意味市場即消費者仍有這個需求。” 　　較被看好的官地就包括蔡厝港通道的執行共管公寓（EC），位於市區邊緣的明地迷亞路／黃埔東、供應有限的有地住宅區實龍崗花園大道、西海岸連路／西海岸、蔡厝港路和實龍崗路上段／平玉道的地段。 　　李曉和認為，發展商應該會把焦點放在有賣點的地段，如近地鐵站、自然公園和蓄水池等。明年上半年的官地可從容納介於300至500個單位左右的中型到700個單位的大型項目。 　　在商用住宅方麵，蔡楚芬認為，雖然兩幅新地段較吸引人，但缺乏黃金地段。 　　孫燕清不看好新的EC地皮需求，因為買家人數有限，而今年至今已賣出六幅EC地皮，供應量充足。 　　根據國家發展部的數據，截至今年第三季的6萬4358個單位的潛在供應量中，多達3萬3771個單位，也就是超過半數的單位還沒有售出。其中3248個是已經在市麵上求售的單位、1萬1382個單位是已經具備銷售資格，但卻被發展商扣著不發的單位，另外1萬9141個單位則還沒有領到全部銷售批文。 《聯合早報》 S’pore govt to cool property prices by boosting supply: analysts Posted by luxuryasiahome on November 25, 2010 · Leave a Comment  Enough land to generate 14,300 private residential units has been released in Singapore under the government land sales programme for the first half of 2011. This came as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said that more measures may be taken, if necessary, to cool real-estate prices. Analysts said the Singapore government’s move is aimed at preserving sanity in the property market by boosting supply. Policy makers across the region are taking action to either meet or curb heavy demand. The Hong Kong government clamped down on speculation in the property market recently by introducing a special stamp duty levied on all properties sold within two years of purchase. And with unrelenting demand continuing in Singapore, more cooling measures to calm the market could be on the cards. This, according to Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research South East Asia for Jones Lang Lasalle. “Every city has their own policies, for Singapore we are not ruling out other measures that they could put in, but for now they continue to pump in the supply to keep sufficient supply to ensure prices are in check. Should prices continue to rise unabated, then of course they may continue to adopt further tightening measures on the demand side – loan to value ratio,” he said. In August, Singapore asked banks to demand more upfront cash from home buyers with existing home loans. While the government’s measures has had an impact, MAS said that there is a possibility that transaction activity and prices could pick up again given strong global liquidity and low interest rates. Alvin Liew, Economist (Global Research) with Standard Chartered Bank said: “What we could envisage is, they could possibly limit the foreigners out from the domestic mortgage market. You can see the reason. First, if the person can afford to pay for the house in full, it doesn’t matter how prices crash or not. And another reason is, if its not on the banking sector’s balance sheets, it will not matter to the domestic banks. “You could also limit PRs in Singapore who’d probably be high net worth, to just one housing loan. And the third measure, which we think may be the least likely, is the capital gains tax on property, which was removed a few years ago.” Going forward, analysts said that with major economies reluctant to roll back stimulus measures, excessive liquidity in the market will continue to slosh into property markets in the region, prompting governments to take further action. Source : Channel NewsAsia – 25 Nov 2010 Hot money flows and real estate  luxuryasiahome on November 26, 2010  Just when you think that the cost of money in Singapore cannot possibly get any cheaper, this paper reported on Wednesday that the battle among banks here to secure more home mortgages is intensifying. Malaysian bank CIMB is offering to charge private-home buyers only 0.65 per cent more than the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), which is currently at 0.44 per cent, for the first two years, while Maybank is asking for 0.5 per cent plus Sibor for the first year. This new home-loan war is to secure more mortgage business as expectations gain ground that the Government will announce new measures to cool the residential property market. Among the main concerns voiced by Members of Parliament earlier this week was the worry that the quantitative easing by the United States Federal Reserve will suddenly flood Asian markets with liquidity, fan inflation and fuel home prices. The Fed said recently that it would inject US$600 billion ($786 billion) into the world’s largest economy by buying long-term US Treasury securities. This round of quantitative easing has unsettled many developing countries, which say the capital flows into their economies are pushing up home and stock market prices. As rightfully pointed out by the Government, these fears are exaggerated. The US is not going to mop up US$600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities in one fell swoop but gradually, in phases. With respect to the local property market, I would add that it is never going to enter the real-estate sector directly. Property is a unique asset. It is location- specific. Almost all property investors buy in places in which they are familiar with. You are never going to get foreigners in the West who know little about Singapore’s property market phoning their brokers overnight to put them down for a local property. Having said that, I have heard of some housing agents who get general instructions from their Chinese clients to buy any “suitable” property from a given budget. However, these clients are already familiar with Singapore and are often repeat buyers. The hot monies are likely to enter the real-estate sector indirectly via globally traded financial products such as stocks and shares. The sellers of these products, who are themselves real estate investors and who are more familiar with Singapore, do the actual property investing. In any case, it is never any property but one that has more upside potential. It takes time to scout for the right property. Also, unlike shares, each and every property product is unique. So it is never going to shoot up like shares within a short period of time. The ample liquidity situation in Singapore is not new. Earlier stimulus measures introduced by governments in Singapore and the region have already raised liquidity levels considerably. To prevent property bubbles from forming or growing larger, Singapore has already introduced three sets of cooling measures. The Government is also addressing the issue from the supply side. The Ministry of National Development said yesterday that the Government Land Sales programme for the first half of next year will have 30 sites for residential development, which can generate about 14,300 private homes. This is higher than the 13,900 available in the GLS programme for the second half of this year, the ministry said. Of the 30 sites, 17 are new while the other 13 sites are carried over from this year. More can be expected as the cooling measures are not “solutions” because this is a global problem that Singapore cannot solve alone. In the current situation, where major governments worldwide are not courageous or co-operative enough to unravel the stimulus measures, it is not a question of “if” but “when”. These measures manage rather than attempt to solve the problem. When they lose their effectiveness, more needs to be introduced. The main target is runaway prices without corresponding growth in fundamentals. Buoyant sales in themselves are not a problem. The series of cooling measures also serve as a continuing signal to all investors that the situation will not be allowed to get out of hand. So, contrary to what some have suggested, a series of measures is better than a sudden one-time shock. So what more measures can we expect? Softer options include raising the cash component further for downpayments. In the past it used to be 20 per cent, so we still have ammunition for 10 per cent more. Raising the stamp duty by a few percentage points is another option although the 15 per cent imposed in Hong Kong is a little too drastic. Even then, one could argue that if investors are mainly long-term investors, higher stamp duties for shorter holding periods may not deter risky purchases. More impactful options include lower loan-to-value ratios. These are more effective as they help soak up liquidity that is the real problem and at the same time provide more buffer to the financial system for any unexpected sharp price corrections. More importantly, they do not discourage long-term investments. The philosophy of the Government with respect to property investments seems to be caveat emptor or buyer beware. You reap what you sow. In plain words, you can benefit handsomely but you are free to make costly mistakes as well. By Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International.