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該研究的Modeller過去的研究也非常離譜。被行內廣泛質疑。見下文。
Who is Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London virus modeller and Government scientific adviser
Prof Ferguson has been a key figure around the Government's scientific community for years
Whenever Government ministers have been put in a sticky spot over their approach to their coronavirus pandemic their answer has always been the same: they are just following the science.
And by "following the science" they have often meant adhering to the advice of Neil Ferguson, the virus modeller from Imperial College London and a scientific adviser to the Government for 20 years.
It was his team's forecast, on March 16, of 500,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic if no action was taken which is largely credited with convincing the Government to change course and impose the lockdown on Britain which could last a year.
Prof Ferguson, who is based in the faculty of medicine at Imperial's School of Public Health, has been a key figure around the Government's scientific community for years.
He was awarded an OBE by the Queen for his modelling work on the spread of foot and mouth among cattle in 2001, which suggested that the culling of animals should include not only those found to be infected with the virus but also those on adjacent farms, even if there was no physical evidence of infection.
The advice helped to persuade Tony Blair’s government to carry out a widespread pre-emptive culling which ultimately led to the deaths of more than six million cattle, sheep and pigs. The cost to the economy was later estimated at £10 billion.
But a report in 2011 stated Prof Ferguson’s models made a “serious error” by “ignoring the species composition of farms,” and the fact that the disease spread faster between some species than others.
Prof Ferguson also played a prominent role in producing mathematical models for the swine flu pandemic in 2009 and the Ebola outbreak in 2014.
There was more controversy when his team's swine flu models predicted a scenario in which 65,000 people in the UK died – a significant benchmark in the WHO's decision to issue a pandemic. In the end, the UK death toll from swine flu stood at 457.
He also predicted that up to 50,000 people could die from ‘mad cow disease’. To date there have been only 177 deaths from the human form of BSE.
The scientist has robustly defended his work, saying that he had worked with limited data and limited time so the models weren’t 100 per cent right – but that the conclusions it reached were valid.
The academic, 51, was born in Cumbria. His father was an educational psychologist, while his mother was a librarian who later became an Anglican priest.
He moved to Wales, and was educated at Llanidoes High School and then Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford University. Prof Ferguson is married with a wife and child, who live apart from him. It is understood the couple are estranged.
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