美國聯準會(Fed)三月會議紀錄顯示,決策官員擔心通膨放緩進展已停滯,可能要維持利率更高更久,三月通膨數據則印證官員的憂慮,促使市場縮減降息預期;美國前財政部長桑默斯甚至警告,必須認真思考聯準會接下來轉向升息的風險。會議記錄也顯示,官員針對放緩縮減資產負債表速度,已接近達成協議。
三月會議記錄顯示,與會官員提到經濟指標顯示成長動能強勁,近幾個月通膨數據也令人失望,認為應該等到對通膨滑落更有信心時再降息。部分官員更提出一種可能性,若當前百分之五點二五至五點五利率水準對經濟的限製比預期還小,可能強化需求動能並帶給通膨上升壓力。
路透報導,這種邏輯可能成為支持再次升息的論據。
美國十日公布的三月通膨率數據依然高於預期後,今年有決策投票權的裏奇蒙聯準銀行總裁巴爾金表示,最新數據顯示通膨可能需要一些時間才能回落。
市場已縮減對聯準會今年的降息預期。渣打銀行預期今年將降息兩次,可能七月啟動,巴克萊銀行則預估隻會降息一次,在九月降息一碼。
不過,哈佛大學教授桑默斯接受彭博采訪時表示,“必須認真思考Fed下一次利率行動是上調、而非調降的可能性”,這種情況的幾率為百分之十五至廿五,“在我看來,六月降息將是危險而令人震驚的錯誤”,“我們現在不需要降息”。他也說,情勢在六月前仍可能改變,幾率仍然指向聯準會今年降息,但沒有市場反映的這麽高。
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