A Diplomatic Illusion
By:Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Ukrainske, Dnipropetrovsk On February 14, 2022, the Kremlinannouncedvia the TASS news agency that Moscow was ready to withdraw some of the troops massed there for months from its western border with Ukraine. Its Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov,dismissedthe Russian threat to invade Ukraine asWestern media terrorism. Although the special military operation had actually been planned for months, if not years, Lavrov maintained the opposite,addingthat the demobilization of Russian forces wasa planned practice that does not depend on the hysteria of Western powers.In astatement, his spokesman doubled down, asserting that military training was about to end and that units from the Southern and Western military districts had already begun loading personnel and equipment onto rail and road transport, ready to head to their military bases that same day.
Shared by Russian disinformation outlets abroad, primarily in Italy, those statements ultimately fueleda picture of reality that was the opposite of the dramatic one that prompted us to return to Ukrainewhen an exodus was already underway. The then-NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg,welcomedthe signals from Moscow that diplomacy must continue,callingthema reason for cautious optimism.
In full violation of the Minsk agreements, the Russian State Duma meanwhileappealedto dictator Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Exactly four years later, with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine underway, Kremlin-loyal news agencies and bloggers arespreadingthe false narrative on their channels that a Ukrainian counteroffensive, benefiting from the communications blackoutcausedby the Starlink satellite network being blocked on devices not registered on the Ukrainian whitelist, is bringing dozens of villages back under Kyivs control, previously falsely declared asconqueredby the Russian General Staff.
As in 2022, reality is very far from the narrative, since these areas were mostly gray zones or fully under Ukrainian control, Russian presence in those settlements was minimal or absent.
The pressure exerted by the Russian regimes Washington arm, Donald Trump, has instead produced catastrophic results on the wars most critical fronts: after being contained for over two years, Russian troops have in recent hours managed to advance towards the western outskirts ofChasiv Yar, gaining a strategic advantage from those heights over other martyred cities of Donetsk, such as Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. Further southwest, the official announcement of the fall ofPokrovskis now only a matter of hours. The rubble ofMyrnohradis enclosed in a virtually dead-end kill zone that completely engulfsRivneandRodynske.Huliajpole, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, is almost entirely occupied.
We pushed ourselves to the edge of areas beyond which life is impossible to understand how far Western blindness has allowed a cancer to advance, a cancer that cannot be measured merely in square kilometers of Ukrainian land.
The scenario described does not depict a sudden collapse of the front but a methodical attrition in which what truly advances is not the Russian infantry but technology. To advance fifty kilometers in Donetsk toward Pokrovsk and a dozen kilometers toward Toretsk, Moscow took almost 12 years and two million men, leaving more than half of them on the field.A slow, bloody, and costly advance, far from unstoppable, yet Russian soldiers remain outside the fortress belt of Donbas, which Ukrainians continue to defend with their blood.
This is becausewhile Kyiv was fighting a high-intensity war of attrition, many European capitals were still thinking in terms of crisis management. The lack of a long-term industrial vision, the fragmentation of defense production, the slowness in integrating Ukraine into European technology and industrial chains, and the application of half-hearted sanctions that have always avoided hitting a core Russian business that Europe has actually fueled first and will continue todoso for at least two years have allowedMoscow to advance technologically much more than on the ground.
So much so that today there is no longer a clear line between Russian and Ukrainian control:there are gradients of risk, shades of gray that extend well beyond the line of contact. The distinction between rear and front lines has become porous. As we have been repeating for years now,the gray zone is no longer a defined geographical space but a dynamic, variable condition that changes from hour to hourbased on ISR coverage, jammer availability, and the presence of FPV operators. In this context,talking about liberated or conquered villages risks being misleading. Control is often intermittent, partial, and contested.
Four years ago, the Munich Security Conference was marked by ambiguity. The Russian delegation canceled its participation at the last minute, while many Western leaders spoke of deterrence and dialogue. A few days later, Russian tanks crossed the border into Europe. The same meeting now discussesglobal disorder, stillin terms of deterrence and dialogue. Continuing to fail to recognize that if the world is shattered, Ukraine is now its most exposed fault line. Ignoring the cracks wont make them disappear: it will only deepen them.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our houses heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends ????????
外交幻象
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
烏克蘭，第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克2022年2月14日，克裏姆林宮通過塔斯通訊社宣布，莫斯科準備從其與烏克蘭接壤的西部邊境撤回在那兒集結數月的部分部隊。俄外長謝爾蓋拉夫羅夫將俄方入侵烏克蘭的威脅斥為西方媒體的恐怖主義。盡管這場特別軍事行動事實上已籌劃數月乃至數年之久，拉夫羅夫仍堅持相反說法，並補充稱俄軍的撤編是一項既定做法，不取決於西方列強的歇斯底裏。其發言人在一份聲明中重申，軍演即將結束，南部和西部軍區的部隊已開始將人員和裝備裝上鐵路與公路運輸工具，當天就準備返回其軍營。
這些言論被境外，主要是在意大利的俄方虛假信息渠道廣泛傳播，最終助長了一種與當時戲劇性現實相反的輿論畫麵。正是在那種現實下，當時大批人已開始外逃，我們重返烏克蘭。時任北約秘書長延斯斯托爾滕貝格對莫斯科發出的外交必須繼續的信號表示歡迎，並稱其令人謹慎樂觀。
與此同時，俄羅斯國家杜馬公然違反明斯克協議，呼籲獨裁者弗拉基米爾普京承認自稱的盧甘斯克和頓涅茨克人民共和國的獨立。
（圖片來源：Il Fatto Quotidiano）
整整四年後，隨著對烏克蘭的全麵入侵展開，親克裏姆林宮的通訊社與博主在其渠道上散布虛假敘事，稱一場烏克蘭反攻在進行，借助因未在烏克蘭白名單注冊的設備被封鎖使用Starlink衛星網絡而導致通信中斷，數十個先前被俄方總參隊虛報為已被占領的村莊正重回基輔控製。
與2022年一樣，現實與敘事相去甚遠：這些地區大多為灰色地帶或本就處於烏克蘭控製之下，俄方在這些地點的存在甚少或根本不存在。
而由俄政權在華盛頓的代理人唐納德川普施加的壓力，則在戰爭最關鍵的戰線上產生了災難性後果：在被遏製了兩年多之後，俄軍近日已設法向查西夫雅爾西郊推進，從該高地上獲得了對頓涅茨克其他受難城市（如科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡、德魯日科夫卡、克拉馬托爾斯克與斯洛維揚斯克）的戰略優勢。再往西南，波克羅夫斯克淪陷的官方宣布如今已隻是時間問題。米爾諾赫拉德的廢墟被包圍在幾乎無路可出的殺傷區內，完全吞沒了裏夫內和羅丁斯克。紮波羅熱州的胡裏亞波爾幾乎已被全部占領。
（圖：我在提交本文前數刻，在波克羅夫斯克後方不遠處為Alla拍下這張照片。殺傷區就在前方版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
我們把自己逼到了生活不可維係的邊緣，以搞明白西方的盲目縱容使這場癌症蔓延到了何等程度這場癌症不能僅以烏克蘭土地的平方公裏來衡量。
所描繪的情形並非前線的突然崩潰，而是一場有序的消耗戰，真正推進的不是俄軍步兵，而是技術。為在頓涅茨克向波克羅夫斯克推進約五十公裏、向托列茨克推進十幾公裏，莫斯科幾乎耗費了近12年和兩百萬人力，且超過一半葬身戰場。這是一場緩慢、血腥且代價高昂的推進，遠非不可阻擋，然而俄軍仍停留在頓巴斯的堡壘圈外，而烏克蘭人仍以鮮血守衛著它。
這是因為在基輔進行高強度消耗戰時，許多歐洲首都仍以危機管理的思維行事。缺乏長期產業遠見、防務生產分散、將烏克蘭納入歐洲技術與產業鏈的整合遲緩，以及總是避重就輕的製裁，始終回避打擊那些歐洲曾先行助長、並將在至少兩年內繼續助長的俄羅斯核心商業利益，都使得莫斯科在技術層麵的進展遠超過了地麵推進。
以至於今天已無明確的俄烏控製分界線：隻有風險的梯度、延伸至接觸線以外的灰色地帶。後方與前線的區別變得不清晰。正如我們多年來反複所說，灰色地帶不再是一個既定的地理空間，而是一個動態、可變的狀態，隨偵察監視情報覆蓋、幹擾器可用性以及第一人稱視角無人機（FPV）操作者的存在而按小時變化。在這種情形下，談論解放或征服的村莊容易產生誤導。控製往往是間歇的、局部的且充滿爭議。
（圖：四年前我在烏克蘭頓巴斯拍的照片，那時灰色地帶仍主要由炮火劃定的地理空間版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
四年前，慕尼黑安全會議充滿模糊。俄羅斯代表團在最後一刻取消出席，而許多西方領導人仍談論威懾與對話。數日之後，俄坦克跨越邊界進入歐洲。如今，同一會議仍在以威懾與對話的框架討論全球失序。卻依然未能認識到：如果世界已支離破碎，烏克蘭如今是其最暴露的斷層。無視裂縫不會使其消失，隻會令其加深。
（圖：在提交這篇文章前不久，我在波克羅夫斯克周圍的殺傷區外幾百米處報道時拍攝的照片。現在，主要的危險不再是不精確的火炮的彈片，而是FPV無人機的選擇性精度。而且，在大多數情況下，戴頭盔或佩戴重型設備並不能拯救你版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
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在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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