The Wind Has Shifted In Donbas, While Most Western Narratives Are Stuck In 2022
By:Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ??
Oleksandrivka, Donetsk A quick walk around this area is enough to see that the wind has shifted direction. In cities near the hottest parts of Donbas, like Oleksandrivka, life is busy, businesses are open as usual, and spaces that a few months ago were for rent or sale now host many of the businesses forced to relocate from places like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Not only has Ukraines offensive capability greatly improved, but its defensive strength has as well.Sensors, drones, anti-drone REB systems, and detectors are everywhere and work perfectly, bringing new life to areas that only months ago might have seemed destined for decline.
Of course,internet connectivity is highly restrictedto prevent Russian drones from connecting to Ukrainian mobile networks. But this is the flip side of a coin that must consider the suffering and hardship we endured in these areas until just a few months ago, when they were nearly deserted and the remaining civilians fled, even avoiding a look.
Despite limitations on civilian connectivity, Ukraines ability to saturate the electromagnetic spectrum exploited by the Russians and to replace costly surface-to-air carriers with inexpensive interceptor drones such as those seen in Oleksandrivka and the nearby Pokrovsk district are clear examples ofcost-effectiveness optimization.
Defense Minister Mykhailo FedorovsstatementthatUkraines strategic goal is to achieve a stable 95% interception rate of Russian air targetsseems fully realistic. As henotedin a meeting with journalists,the kill rate of long-range Russian UAVs like the Shahed/Geran by Ukrainian interceptor drones has doubled in four months. The supply of these essential interceptors has increased 2.6 times, and the development of affordable Ukrainian missiles to shoot down Russian jet drones is in progress. The number of reconnaissance UAVs has risen by 441%.
A total of 27 private companies have joined the project we described on these pages, affiliated withthe Ukrainian integrated air defense system a mesh network of sensors and actuators that dramatically increases its resilience with the result that 20 enemy drones of that type have already been destroyed.
As Nona Mikhelidze, one of the few Italian analysts truly deserving of the title,pointed outyesterday in a post on X,whats astonishing is how out of touch some Italian journalists are when it comes to documenting a battlefieldthey seem to have only seen a few times on video or, at best, experienced briefly with the help of a fixer before heading back to the hotel.
The media debate in Italy is fundamentally centered on narratives that describe a reality stuck months, if not years, ago.
In April, 35,203 Russianswerekilled or seriously wounded. In March, the figurewas35,351. Recruitment rarelyexceeds27,000 new units per month, and the deficit has been so negative for at least six months.
Every sporadic advance costs the Kremlin more territory on other fronts, so much so that even that balance is now clearly in the red by at least 400500 km over that same period.Kyivsstatedobjective is to inflict at least 200 human losses on the enemy for every kilometer of advance, consolidating a battlefield initiative now firmly in Ukrainian hands.
Structured by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyj in the impeccable manner wedescribedin our previous dispatches, the logistics flow extremely smoothly, exploiting the modularity of all axes ofa volumetric front very different from that of 2022.
However, Italian news coverage appears to have stopped there. Its rare to see reports about the Ukrainian counterattacks that, just last week, reclaimed two settlements in Kharkiv Oblast for Kyiv and pushed Russian occupiers back to the border in several sectors of the same oblast. We only read about sporadic gains when other agencies repost those reports. References to past events and circumstances are often presented as news.All major foreign research institutes agree that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are achieving their greatest successes on the ground since the Kursk operation.
The ЗСУ counterattacks have caused a series of consequences that have made the Russian spring offensive impossible, which has failed miserably behind a fortress belt in the Donbas that, in the twelfth year of the war, Moscow still has not reached.
Were talking about targeted attacks like the one that killed around a hundred occupants in Kherson Oblast? the day before yesterday, destroying another Russian Pantsir S1 anti-aircraft system. These precise and lethal strikes are now happening regularly.
Therefore, faced with yet another concrete threat of a Russian breakthrough attempt that would exploit Belarusian territory on the northern front to replicate what we saw in 2022, we can only agree with President Zelensky:The premise of any escalation is weakness.The unprecedented measuresadoptedby the government in the regions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Volyn, and Rivne are aimed at discouraging and preventing precisely that attempt, which, however, could prove more fatal for Moscow than for Kyiv.
Considering how things are progressing on the hottest front in Donbas we are writing this a 15-minute drive from Dobropillia, the declared target of the Russian regime the decision to bolster efforts on the opposing front could be much more damaging for the Russians than for the Ukrainians.
While the situation here has shifted, elsewhere the news has stalled since 2022.
In 1.550 days of war, we recorded over 250 videos from ground zero and wrote more than 1,500 articles.
We are doing our best to provide genuine, first-hand reports from zones where almost no press dares to go. This means living in a kill zone constantly. We take the risk, but without your invaluable support, our voices would remain unheard and silent. Without brave people sharing our articles from afar, they would remain unread. Our reports would go unseen, and our efforts would be lost. Theres still a lot of work to do here, as the people around us are also in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping to restore what Russia is destroying. Moving forward with only a small reimbursement for each article from a brave newspaper that believes in us is extremely challenging. Thats why we are grateful to all the kind people who support us and trust in our mission.
Even a small donation helps.
Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends ??
頓巴斯的風向已變，而大多數西方敘事仍停留在2022年
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道??
頓涅茨克，奧列克桑德裏夫卡在該地區附近隨意走上一圈，就足以看到風向已發生改變。在靠近頓巴斯最激烈戰區的城市，如奧列克桑德裏夫卡，生活繁忙，商鋪照常營業，而幾個月前還掛牌出租或待售的空間，如今已成為許多被迫從克拉馬托爾斯克和斯洛維揚斯克等地搬遷過來的企業的新址。
烏克蘭不僅在進攻能力上大幅提升，其防禦力量也同樣增強。傳感器、無人機、反無人機電子對抗係統和探測器無處不在，運作良好，為那些幾個月前還似乎注定衰落的的地區帶來了新的生機。
（圖：此文發表前不久，我在烏克蘭頓涅茨克的奧列山德裏夫卡與烏克蘭士兵一起拍攝的照片??版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
當然，為防止俄方無人機連接烏克蘭移動網絡，互聯網連通在很大程度上受到限製。但這是硬幣的另一麵：必須考慮到我們在這些地區直到幾個月前所承受的痛苦與艱辛，那時這些地方幾乎被遺棄，留守的平民紛紛頭也不回地逃離。
盡管平民通信受限，但烏克蘭在電磁頻譜壓製方麵的能力，即針對俄羅斯利用的頻段進行全麵覆蓋並以廉價攔截無人機取代昂貴地空導彈係統，明顯提升，例如在奧列克桑德裏夫卡和附近的波克羅夫斯克區所見的這類設備，都是成本效益優化的典型例子。
國防部長米哈伊洛費多羅夫所稱烏克蘭戰略目標是實現對俄方空中目標穩定95%的攔截率，看來完全現實可期。正如他在一次記者會中所指出的，烏克蘭攔截無人機在擊落像沙赫德/格蘭這樣的俄方遠程無人機的擊毀率在四個月內翻了一番。這些關鍵攔截器的供應增加了2.6倍，且用於擊落俄方噴氣式無人機的廉價烏克蘭導彈正在研發中。偵察型無人機數量增長了441%。
共有27家私人公司加入了我們在此前報道中描述的項目，隸屬於烏克蘭綜合防空係統一個由傳感器與執行器組成的網狀網絡，大幅提升了係統的韌性。截至目前，該係統已擊落此類敵方無人機20架。
（圖：烏克蘭洛佐瓦的火車站，受到俄羅斯炮彈的襲擊，但仍在運行??版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
正如少數真正配得上評論家稱號的意大利分析家諾娜米克赫利澤昨日在X上指出的，令人驚訝的是一些意大利記者在記錄戰場時竟然與現實嚴重脫節，他們似乎隻在視頻中見過戰場幾次，或頂多在有向導的情況下短暫親曆，然後就回酒店了。
意大利的媒體討論基本上圍繞著那些描述數月乃至數年前情形的敘事展開。
四月有35,203名俄軍被殺或重傷。三月為35,351。俄軍征兵數很少超過每月27,000人，新兵缺口至少已持續六個月之久。
任何零星的推進都要以克拉姆林宮在其他戰線付出更多領土作為代價，以至於即便是這類平衡也在同期明顯呈現赤字，至少減少了400500平方公裏。基輔的明確目標是，每推進一公裏敵方至少要付出200人以上的損失，從而鞏固目前牢牢掌握在烏方手中的戰場主動權。
（圖：一名烏克蘭士兵在他被防無人機網掩護的汽車旁版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
在我們在此前報道中描述的，烏軍總司令奧列克桑德爾西爾斯基無可挑剔的精確規劃下，後勤物流運行極為順暢，與2022年的線性前線截然不同，如今的前線呈現立體化特征。
然而，意大利的新聞報道似乎止步於此。很少看到關於烏克蘭反攻的報道，就在上周，烏軍收複了哈爾科夫州的兩個定居點，並將俄軍占領者在該州若幹地區逼回至邊界。我們僅在其他機構轉發這些報道時才讀到零星的戰果。舊聞和情形常被呈現為新聞。所有主要國外研究機構一致認為，烏克蘭武裝部隊自庫爾斯克行動以來在地麵上取得了最大規模的成功。
烏克蘭軍隊的反攻帶來了一係列成果，使得俄方的春季攻勢不可能實現，該攻勢在頓巴斯的防禦堡壘帶前慘遭失敗，至今在戰爭第十二年，莫斯科仍未突破該帶。
我們說的是像前天在赫爾鬆州發生的那種精確打擊，造成約百名占領者死亡，並摧毀了俄方另一套鎧甲S1防空係統。這類精確且致命的打擊現已成為常態。
（圖：在本文描述的頓巴斯地區附近的一間宿舍裏，一堵徽章牆（包括我們的）版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
因此，麵對俄方可能利用白俄羅斯領土在北線嚐試複製2022年攻勢的又一切實威脅，我們隻能同意總統澤連斯基的看法：任何升級的前提是軟弱。政府在基輔、切爾尼戈夫、日托米爾、沃倫和裏夫內等地區采取的史無前例的措施，正式為了威懾和阻止那種嚐試；而這種嚐試發生，對莫斯科來說可能比對基輔更加致命。
考慮到頓巴斯最激烈前線的形勢發展，本文寫於距多布羅皮利亞約15分鍾車程處，該地是俄方政權明確宣稱的目標，在對立前線加大投入的決定，可能對俄方造成的損害遠大於對烏方。
這裏的局勢已經發生轉變，而其他地方的敘事卻仍停留在2022年。
（圖：Alla與我在烏克蘭頓涅茨克的奧列克桑德裏夫卡現場報道??版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
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