By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Kropyvnytskyi Sixty-one rescuers and 14 emergency response vehicles werent enough to handle the aftermath of the recent heavy Russian attack on the civilian population of Kirovohrad oblast, which remains devastated to an unimaginable degree as of now, with at least 44 settlements in the Oleksandrivka Territorial Community without power.The Russian Armed Forces have once again targeted Ukraines railway infrastructure and the power substations that supply it, attacking them last night alone with 172 drones, an Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile, and one fired from an S-300 system modified to hit ground targets.
Their goal was clearly to disrupt the Ukrainian rail logistics branch that supplies the military stationed in Pokrovsk from the western regions, causing serious problems for the Russian forces.
The result was the disruption of at least 26 passenger trains, primarily on the Pomichna-Kropyvnytskyj-Znamianka-Piatykhatky and Fundukliivka-Znamianka-Piatykhatky routes, which at the time of the bombing were carrying more than 20 convoys loaded with civilians. By deploying an equal number of reserve locomotives, Ukrzaliznytsia quickly responded to this emergency, rerouting those carriages to alternative routes.
Beyond the senselessness of the attacks it conducts, which, with their extreme precision, end up recklessly targeting the Ukrainian civilian population, this approach is based on a clear fundamental flaw.
The Russians continue to approach problems from a Soviet perspective, concentrating massive amounts of fire on targets that no longer hold the same value they might have had under the USSR and in todays Russian Federation. Whilethe latter still relies heavily on rail transportbecause road connections between (to mention one) Rostov-on-Don and the military logistics hubs that should supply the Donbas front are, to say the least, abysmal if not entirely impassable,Ukraine can depend on a modern, high-speed European road network.
Traveling across the whole country from the oblast of Lviv to that of Donetsk by car nowadays takes little more than a dozen hours, whereas a few years ago, it would have taken at least twice that long. As Ive written several times, although it has been unfairly criticized by laypeople and inexperienced observers, thismeasurestrongly supported by the current governmentis saving the situation at the front and, consequently, the country.
Zelensky immediately understood that modernizing the country with a European perspective would be the key to avoiding succumbing to an enemy that was many times larger but backward and anchored to methods born out of the last century. For this reason, he diverted a large portion of the economic funds allocated by countries like Japan, which provide Ukraine with civilian and humanitarian aid but not military aid, to resurfacing Ukraines roads.
From this perspective,the current Russian Federation is a clay giant, having failed to find alternative solutions to current problems, such as road traffic. The targeted attacks that Ukraine, when roles are reversed, launches against its railway infrastructure end up causing significant problems, paralyzing its military logistics, sometimes for extended periods due to international sanctions that make it hard to obtain some key technological components. Therefore, while the Ukrainian railway system is gradually merging with the European onenote that since last Friday, direct passenger trains from Uzhhorod to Bratislava, Vienna, and Budapest have started runningand only partially supports the flow of weapons to the front because it is backed by a dense modern road network,the Russian railway system continues to serve as a crucial strategic element for military logistics without viable alternatives.
Beyond proving thatZelenskys strategy has turned structural modernization into a resilience booster, as seen in Ukrzaliznytsias capacity to deploy reserve locomotives, reroute convoys, and sustain international links even under attack, yesterdays bombings reveal thatthe Soviet tactic of focusing massive firepower on infrastructure that no longer serves its former logistical purpose is a serious mistake. This approach makes giants like Russia vulnerable to targeted strikes, whereasEuropean integration remains an effective strategic advantage.
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戰爭中的鐵路
作者:Giorgio Provinciali
來自烏克蘭的現場報道????????
Kropyvnytskyi61名救援人員和14輛緊急救援車輛不足以應對近期俄羅斯對基洛夫格勒州(Kirovohrad oblast)平民的猛烈襲擊所造成的後果,截至目前,該州仍然受到難以想象的破壞,至少有44個奧列克桑德裏夫卡轄內的定居點斷電。俄羅斯武裝部隊再次以烏克蘭的鐵路基礎設施和供電變電站為目標,僅在昨晚就用172架無人機、一枚伊斯坎德爾-M或北韓KN-23彈道導彈,以及一枚由S-300係統改裝的導彈襲擊了這類地麵目標。
(圖:一輛停在站台的烏克蘭火車)
他們的目標顯然是破壞從西部地區向駐紮在波克羅夫斯克的軍隊提供補給的烏克蘭鐵路物流部門,那裏的烏軍給俄羅斯軍隊造成嚴重的問題。
結果是,至少有26列客運列車中斷,這些列車主要是在Pomichna-Kropyvnytskyj-Znamianka-Piatykhatky和Fundukliivka-Znamianka-Piatykhatky線路上運行,而在爆炸發生時,這些路線上行駛有20多輛載有平民的列車。烏克蘭鐵路公司(Ukrzaliznytsia)迅速部署了相同數量的備用機車來應對這一緊急情況,將這些車廂改道至替代路線。
拋開俄軍所實施的攻擊毫無意義不說,這些攻擊極其精準,最終肆無忌憚地以烏克蘭平民為目標,這種做法完全是基於一個明顯的根本缺陷。
俄羅斯人繼續以蘇聯的思維模式來解決問題,將大量的火力集中在那些不再具有可能與蘇聯時期和今天的俄羅斯聯邦相同的價值的目標上。雖然俄軍仍然嚴重依賴鐵路運輸,因為公路連接,僅舉一例,羅斯托夫(Rostov-on-Don)和向頓巴斯前線提供補給的軍事後勤中心之間的公路,可以說是糟糕透頂,如果不是完全無法通行的話,烏克蘭卻不一樣,烏軍可以依賴現代化、高速的歐洲公路網。
(圖:我記錄了這段在頓涅茨克(Donetsk)多布羅皮利亞(Dobropillia)拍攝的影片。版權所有,Giorgio Provinciali)
現在開車穿越整個國家,從利沃夫州(oblast)到頓涅茨克州隻需十幾個小時,而幾年前則需要至少兩倍的時間。正如我多次寫到的,雖然一直受到外行和缺乏經驗的觀察家的不公平批評,但這一措施受到現任政府的強烈支持正在拯救前線的局勢,從而拯救了國家。
如今,從利沃夫州到頓涅茨克州,開車穿越全國隻需十幾個小時,而幾年前,至少需要兩倍的時間。正如我多次寫到的,盡管它一直受到外行和缺乏經驗的觀察家的不公平批評,得到了現任政府強烈支持的這項措施,正在拯救前線的局勢,從而拯救了國家。
(圖:即使進入實際上的戰區,如照片中的頓涅茨克這州,烏克蘭的道路狀況仍然非常好????????-版權所有,Giorgio Provinciali)
澤連斯基始終明白,以歐洲的視角實現國家現代化,將是避免屈服於一個體量大數倍但落後並受上個世紀的思維束縛的敵人的關鍵。因此,他將各國(如日本)撥款的經濟資金中的很大一部分,用於新鋪設烏克蘭的道路,這些資金用於為烏克蘭提供民用和人道主義援助,而不是軍事援助。
從這個角度來看,目前的俄羅斯聯邦是一個泥足巨人,未能找到解決當前問題,如道路交通,的替代解決方案。但反過來時,當烏克蘭針對俄羅斯鐵路基礎設施發動攻擊時,就給俄方造成了嚴重的問題,使軍事後勤癱瘓,有時還會因國際製裁使其難以獲得一些關鍵技術部件而持續很長時間。因此,雖然烏克蘭鐵路係統正在逐漸與歐洲鐵路係統融合,(注:自上周五開始,從烏日霍羅德(Uzhhorod)到布拉迪斯拉發、維也納和布達佩斯的直達客運列車已經開始運行),僅有部分地向前線輸送的武器由鐵路運輸完成,密集的現代公路網絡是烏克蘭鐵路運輸的代替方案。但俄羅斯鐵路係統仍然是軍事後勤的一個關鍵戰略要素,沒有可行的替代方案。
(圖:一輛被俄羅軍摧毀的民用巴士,位於從伊久姆到頓涅茨克州斯洛維揚斯克的路上????????)
昨天的轟炸證明了澤連斯基的戰略已將結構性現代化轉變為複原力的助推器;此外,正如從昨天的事件中看到的那樣,在受到攻擊的情況下,烏克蘭鐵路公司依然能夠部署後備機車、重新安排車隊和維持國際聯網暢通;昨天的襲擊事件還揭示了將大量火力集中在鐵路基礎設施上的蘇聯策略是一個嚴重的錯誤,鐵路早已不再承擔以前那種後勤服務功能。這種(蘇聯式的)策略卻使像俄羅斯這樣的巨人容易受到有針對性的打擊,而歐洲一體化仍然是一種有效的戰略優勢。
(圖:我在烏克蘭頓巴斯的戰區版權所有,Giorgio Provinciali)