今天做了下麵這個研究，收集數據和做圖：Bitcoin drop a precursor of 大盤指數跌

The data and historical chart below illustrate the relationship between Bitcoin and the broad market (represented by the SP 500).
While it is not strictly true that Bitcoin always drops before the broad market, it has frequently acted as a leading indicator or canary in the coal mine during major market shifts. This is primarily because Bitcoin is a 24/7, highly liquid, and high-beta risk-on asset. When institutional liquidity begins to tighten or risk appetite fades, Bitcoin is often the first asset that investors sell to raise cash.
Key Observations from the Chart
The 2021-2022 Peak: This is the most significant example of the lead-lag relationship. Bitcoin reached its cycle peak on November 10, 2021. The SP 500 continued to climb for nearly two more months, eventually peaking on January 4, 2022. Bitcoins drop preceded the broad market crash by approximately 55 days.
Volatility Amplification: Bitcoin typically moves in the same direction as the SP 500 but with 35 times the magnitude. This makes Bitcoin drops much more visible before the shallower initial dips in the stock market.
2024 Trends: In early 2024, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in March, signaling a massive surge in risk appetite that the SP 500 followed and sustained throughout the second quarter.
The Precursor Mechanics
1. Liquidity Proxy: Bitcoin is highly sensitive to changes in global M2 money supply and Fed interest rate expectations.
2. 24/7 Trading: Because the crypto market never closes, it often captures weekend or overnight sentiment shifts before the New York Stock Exchange opens on Monday.
3. Risk Sentiment: Professional traders often use Bitcoin as a gauge for animal spirits. When Bitcoin fails to make new highs while stocks do, it often signals a bearish divergence and an impending broad market correction.