昨天寫的一篇英文：Why Gold's Bull Run May Continue

Golds expected continued bull run is fueled by a powerful mix of monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical drivers that are set to persist.

1. Geopolitical Instability Safe Haven Demand

Golds role as the premier safe-haven asset is crucial during global turmoil. Rising tensions between major powers (fragmentation, conflict risks) drive investors to seek assets independent of any single country or fiat currency.

2. Relentless Central Bank Buying

Central banks are massive, strategic buyers, providing a fundamental floor for gold prices. Motivated by de-dollarization and the need for reserve diversification, many central banks are shifting away from the U.S. dollar to hold more gold for financial stability and independence, keeping purchase levels near record highs.

3. Monetary Fiscal Debt Drivers

The global debt environment strongly favors gold:

Historic Debt: Record government debt levels mean nations must rely on high deficits and currency debasement (weakening money supply) to manage their burdens.

Store of Wealth: As Ray Dalio notes, when fiat currency value is consistently undermined, gold becomes the essential harder currency and reliable store of wealth.

Inflation Hedge: Gold provides a necessary defense against the long-term, corrosive effects of currency devaluation and potential future inflation.

4. Interest Rate Outlook

The likely path for U.S. interest rates also supports gold:

Peak Rates: Gold performs best when the Fed is done hiking and begins cutting rates, as this lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold relative to bonds.

Weaker Dollar: A pivot to rate cuts is expected to weaken the U.S. dollar, which makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper and more attractive for global investors.

In short, chronic geopolitical risk, sustained central bank demand, and a system burdened by debt and currency debasement create a strong, lasting tailwind for gold prices.