WSJ: IMF警告

Were entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset, saidPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the funds economic counselor.

The IMF said the immediate impact of the rise in tariffs will be to slow economies around the world. It lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 2.8% from 3.3%, a downgrade that is slightly larger than that following Russias invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. For 2026, it now sees global growth of 3%, down from 3.3% previously.

Mexico is set to suffer the largest reversal of the big economies for which the IMF provides forecasts, and is now expected to see its economy contract by 0.3% in 2025, having previously been on course for an expansion of 1.4%.

The U.S. economy is also expected to suffer significant damage, with growth in 2025 now forecast at 1.8%, down from 2.7% when the funds last forecasts were published in January. A further slowdown to 1.7% is expected for 2026, with the IMF having previously forecast an expansion of 2.1%.

Gourinchas said the probability of a recession in the U.S. has risen, but it remains an unlikely outcome.