從流感數據看新冠壓平曲線戰略

新冠壓平曲線戰略是根據流感經驗而製定的，對新冠疫情效果不佳，但對流感效果非常顯著，以至於2020-2021流感季節幾乎沒有流感病例。對於新冠疫情，專家們犯了經驗主義和教條主義錯誤，方不對症。

以下抄自CDC的流感總結。從流感這個側麵，也可以看出在Omicron這輪疫情，美國不少人自發地拋棄了壓平曲線而選擇了反向隔離。

（2019-2020）The overall burden of influenza (flu) for the 2019-2020 was an estimated 35 million flu-related illnesses, 16 million flu-related medical visits, 380,000 flu-related hospitalizations, and 20,000 flu-related deaths.

（2020-2021） During September 28, 2020–May 22, 2021 in the United States, 1,675 (0.2%) of 818,939 respiratory specimens tested by U.S. clinical laboratories were positive for an influenza virus. 

（2021-2022） CDC estimates that, so far this season, there have been at least 6.4 million flu illnesses, 65,000 hospitalizations, and 4,000 deaths from flu.