叔涵心語
叔涵暢談天下事，實話實說，實事求是！
陳叔涵 2022年1月23日
人是世間最複雜的生命現象。看任何人，不管是普羅大眾還是領袖精英，如果隻是用簡單的二分法，不好即壞，非黑即白。那就太武斷，有失理性與客觀，也有違人性，不符合實事求是的評判準則。
習近平也是一個複雜的生命體。習近平身上有極端自卑的一麵，也有極度自負的一麵。誠然，習作為國家領導人，在內政外交上都十分失敗，可謂治國無方。但是，習近平精於權鬥，內鬥內行，堪稱弄權有術，這也是習近平政治生涯中唯一可圈可點的部分，乃習自負之源。否則，習近平不可能在龍椅上坐如此之久。習近平的權鬥生涯大致可劃分為兩個階段，第一個階段是在接掌大位之前，第二個階段是上位之後。
先說第一個階段。習近平是典型的紅二代，他能坐上龍椅與他的出身密切相關。習成長在文革年代，親眼目睹了各式各樣的派係鬥爭，加之出身高官之家，對官場的權鬥耳濡目染，自然就培養了政治鬥爭的敏銳嗅覺。紅二代中不乏既有實際才幹又有個人魅力者，但最終隻有習近平勝出，這就足以證明習在權力爭鬥方麵確有過人之處。習最大的能耐就是裝憨賣傻，也可說是假癡不癲，他用這一招成功地蒙騙了江澤民胡錦濤。習近平也很幸運，是中共黨內權力博弈的最終受益者。他能勝出，很大程度上歸功於江澤民的私心。江澤民效仿鄧小平，搞現代版的垂簾聽政。江卸任時並不是一下子將所有權力都轉交給胡錦濤，隻將黨權移交，而將軍權抓住不放，直到將自己的親信安插到政治局常委後才將軍委主席一職讓給胡錦濤。當時的一首童謠就生動地反映了這一史實：中國人民奔小康，三個代表進黨章；錦濤成了黨中央，澤民同誌不交槍！
就如鄧小平指定胡錦濤為江澤民的接班人一樣，江澤民指定了習近平為胡錦濤的繼承人。江澤民故伎重施，指望像控製胡錦濤一樣，把習近平當玩偶。因為習看起來憨憨傻傻的，沒什麽心機。江尋思這樣的人容易控製，他可跟先前一樣繼續把持政權。這就不得不令人佩服習近平深厚的表演功力，居然連黨內老奸巨猾且最善權謀的曾慶紅都沒能識破。能演得如此到位，這種演技遠非任何影視明星可以比肩的。當時中國之政壇，唯習近平一人而已。
習不光是善裝，同時也善忍，他的耐性在當時政壇也無人能出其右。在沒坐上龍椅之前，他相當低調，極少在公眾麵前表現自己。2007年中共十七大習近平已經進入權力中樞且成了儲君，然而，習近平並沒有得意忘形，他深知，中共權鬥充滿變數，不坐上龍椅便不能說奪權成功。他除了繼續裝憨賣傻之外，還在苦苦等待時機幹掉威脅他取得皇位的最大政敵薄熙來。因為薄熙來也是紅二代，資曆不在習之下，且薄之政治才幹和個人魅力遠在習近平之上。薄在重慶的“唱紅打黑”運動卓有成效，民望頗高，這讓習深感壓力和不安。黃天不負有心人，2012年初薄熙來的親信王立軍逃入成都美國領事館尋求政治庇護，這就是轟動世界的王立軍事件。蟄伏五年的習近平趁機發難，火速聯合胡錦濤溫家寶一舉拿下薄熙來，除掉心頭大患。在此事件中，習近平體現出狼一般的耐性，鱷魚一般的凶猛。一擊即中，不給對手任何反撲機會。時機拿捏之精準，出手之迅疾，殺伐之果斷，令人歎為觀止。當習近平坐穩大位，開始整肅江澤民曾慶紅之舊部時，二人才開始後悔看走了眼，恐怕內心也佩服習近平的隱忍功力吧，隻可惜為時已晚！
再說第二個階段。習近平接掌大位後的權鬥經曆不如之前出彩，但也是有些亮點的。為鞏固權力，習近平開始大力反腐，鐵腕肅貪。習把古代的帝王之術成功地複製到反腐運動中：用貪官，反貪官。即，用聽命於己的貪官而以貪腐之名去整肅政敵。習反腐既清除了異己又贏得民眾一片掌聲，為自己的政績加分不少。接著，習近平又大耍兩麵派手腕，一麵說，要將權力關進製度的籠子裏，而一麵又大力提拔自己的親信到最重要的崗位，試看今日之朝中，竟是清一色的習家軍人馬！然而，習近平最令世人驚訝的權謀舉動就是以迅雷不及掩耳之勢修改憲法，為終身掌權鋪平道路。此一操作可謂出其不意攻其無備，讓人猝不及防，也堪稱大手筆。
習近平治國理念是混亂不堪的，但習的權鬥理念卻異常清晰，因為習近平嗜權如命。習權鬥的理論結晶就是四個意識，即，政治意識，大局意識，核心意識，看齊意識。雖算不上是政治上的理論創新，但好歹也可用作一麵權鬥的旗幟。習近平的權鬥理論也收獲了實際果實：習核心、定於一尊！
作為中共第五代領導人，習近平治國無方、擾民有術，不免令其自卑。然而，習諳於權謀，內鬥內行，又不免令其自負，總算尋得一點心理平衡。不過，《聖經》曰：用劍者死於劍。同理可知：用謀者敗於謀，弄權者毀於權。此話遲早會應驗，因為習近平不管是用謀還是弄權，其動機都是為一己之私欲而不是為天下蒼生之福祉！
Xi Jinping’s conceited life
By Chen Shuhan January 23, 2022
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Mankind is the most complex phenomenon of life in the world. Judging anyone, whether he is one of the general public or one of the elite leaders, if we just use a simple dichotomy, either good or bad, either black or white, that would be too arbitrary, irrational, and one-sided, still it is against human nature and doesn’t go in line with the criterion of realistic judgment: seeking truth from facts Xi Jinping is a complex being too. There exists an extreme inferiority in his bones and an extreme ego in his mind. Admittedly, Xi Jinping has failed miserably as a national leader in both domestic and foreign affairs, but Xi has been exceptionally successful in power struggles, which is the only notable part of Xi's political career, and this is the very source of his conceit, which is the fundamental reason why Xi has been able to sit on the dragon chair for so long time. Xi's career in power struggle can be roughly divided into two stages, the first, before he took over the throne, and the second, after he assumed the throne. Let's start with the first stage. Xi Jinping is a typical second-generation Red, and his rise to the dragon chair is closely related to his origin. He grew up during the Cultural Revolution and witnessed all sorts of factional struggles, what’s more, he came from a family of high-ranking officials and had been imperceptibly influenced by what he constantly saw and heard about the power struggles of the officialdom since he was born, so he naturally developed a keen sense of political struggle. Among the second-generation Reds abound with candidates who are extraordinary in both practical skills and personal charisma. The fact that Xi Jinping was the only one to win proves that Xi is really good at power games. Xi's greatest ability is to play dumb or pretend to be stupid, and he has successfully fooled Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao with this trick. Xi is also lucky to be the ultimate beneficiary of the power game within the Chinese Communist Party. He was able to win, thanks in large part to Jiang Zemin's selfishness. Jiang followed Deng Xiaoping's example and engaged in a modern version of attending state affairs behind the bamboo curtain. When Jiang left office, he did not transfer all the power to Hu Jintao at once, but only handed over the power in the Party, while holding the military power until he installed his cronies in the Politburo Standing Committee before giving the chairmanship of the Military Commission to Hu Jintao. A nursery rhyme at that time vividly reflects this historical fact: the Chinese people ran for prosperity, the Three Representatives were put into the Party constitution, Jintao became the leader of the Party central committee, and Comrade Zemin did not hand over the gun! Just as Deng Xiaoping designated Hu Jintao as Jiang Zemin's successor, Jiang Zemin has designated Xi Jinping as Hu Jintao's successor. Jiang Zemin is playing the same trick again, expecting to use Xi Jinping as a plaything, just like he controlled Hu Jintao. Because Xi seems to be a simple and dumb person with little calculation, Jiang thinks such a person is easy to control, and he can continue to hold power as he did before. This makes everyone today admire Xi Jinping's profound acting skills, which even Zeng Qinghong, the most cunning and scheming person in the Party failed to see through. This is an extraordinary performance beyond any movie star. To play so well at that time, Xi Jinping was the only one in the Chinese political arena. Xi is not only good at pretending, but also well at enduring, and his patience is unmatched in the political arena at the time. Before he sat on the dragon chair, he kept a low profile and seldom showed off himself in front of the public. Xi Jinping entered the center of power and became the crown prince at the 17th Communist Party Congress in 2007, however, Xi Jinping is not complacent, he knows that the power struggle in the Chinese Communist Party is full of variables, and he cannot say he has succeeded in seizing power until he sits on the dragon chair. He continues to play dumb but is also waiting for the right time to kill his biggest political rival, Bo Xilai, who threatens him to get the throne. The reason is that Bo Xilai is also a second-generation Red and his seniority is not under Xi, what’s more, Bo's political talent and personal charisma are far above Xi Jinping. The "Singing Red Songs and Striking black society” campaign by Bo in Chongqing is very effective and popular, which makes Xi feel pressured and uneasy. In early 2012, Bo's crony Wang Lijun fled to the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu to seek political asylum, which became a worldwide sensation. This was the world's most dramatic event of Wang Lijun. Xi Jinping, who had been hiding for five years, took the opportunity to join Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao to bring down Bo Xilai in one fell swoop, eliminating a major problem, and leaving no chance for his opponent to fight back. In this event, Xi Jinping showed his wolf-like patience and crocodile-like fierceness. The precision of the timing, the swiftness of the strike, and the decisiveness of the killing are all breathtaking. Once Xi Jinping sat on the throne safe and sound and began to purge Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong's old cronies, the two began to regret backing on the wrong horse, I'm afraid they also admire Xi Jinping's patience in their minds, but unfortunately, it was too late! And then comes the second stage. Xi Jinping's experience of power struggles after taking over the reins is less impressive than before, but there are some highlights too. To consolidate his power, Xi launched a vigorous anti-corruption campaign, purging corruption with an iron fist. Xi has successfully replicated the ancient imperial technique in his anti-corruption campaign: use corrupt officials to fight corruption. That is, he used the corrupt officials who were willing to listen to him to purge his political enemies in the name of corruption. Xi's anti-corruption campaign has not only cleared the dissidents but also won public applause, adding a lot of scores to his performance. Then, Xi Jinping played both sides of the fence, saying on the one hand that he wanted to put power in the cage of the system, while on the other hand, he promoted his own cronies to the most important positions, look at the dynasty today, it is all Xi's men! However, the most surprising power move of Xi Jinping is to amend the constitution swiftly to pave the way for a lifetime rule. This operation can be described as a surprise attack, catching people off guard, and is a masterstroke indeed. Xi Jinping's philosophy of governance is chaotic and confusing, but Xi's philosophy of power struggle is exceptionally clear because power is what Xi cares most about. The theoretical crystallization of Xi's power struggle is the four consciousnesses, namely, the political consciousness, the big-picture consciousness, the core consciousness, and the alignment consciousness. Although it is not a political innovation, it can at least be used as a banner for a power struggle. Xi Jinping's theory of power struggle has also reaped practical fruits: Xi becomes the core of power, and all is decided by Xi alone! As the fifth-generation leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping's inability to rule the country and his skill in disturbing the people have made him inferior. However, Xi's mastery of power and his ability to fight internally have made him conceited, thus he has finally found some psychological balance. However, the Bible says: "He who uses the sword dies by the sword. In the same way, it is clear that: those who use strategy lose in strategy, and those who use power are destroyed by power. This will come true sooner or later because Xi Jinping's motive is for his own selfish desires rather than for the welfare of the Chinese people, no matter whether he uses strategy or power. |
