MBS - Mortgage Backed Securities

如果MBS Default的問題持續發酵，不排除會成為黑天鵝事件，但暫時還沒看到大的風險。現在的問題是，一些office building入住率太低，但同時貸款利率持續飆升，精明的Landlord不想填無底洞，幹脆讓代理公司破產了事。與此同時，FED為了降低通貨膨脹，持續減持MBS，以達到抽幹市場上liquidity的目的。這會進一步推低商業地產的價值，導致沒人願意接盤。

• The Fed's holdings of MBS have dropped by $130 billion from the peak, to $2.61 trillion. Over the past four weeks, MBS have dropped by $15 billion.

• As the Fed continues to raise interest rates , prices in the $8.7 trillion agency or government-backed MBS market could fall further, prompting financial institutions to trim their balance sheet to stem losse.

• With at least $92 billion of office mortgages maturing in 2023, landlords are under increasing pressure. 

Recent news on the commercial mortgage default --

• Mar. 2, 2023， Blackstone Inc. defaulted on a $562 million bond backed by a portfolio of Finnish offices and stores.
• Feb. 22, 2023,  An office landlord controlled by Pacific Investment Management Co. has defaulted on about $1.7 billion of mortgage notes on seven buildings
• Feb. 20, 2023, A fund managed by Brookfield Properties defaulted on $784 million of loans on two well-known Los Angeles office skyscrapers.

[Reference]

1. https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/02/feds-balance-sheet-drops-by-626-billion-from-peak-cumulative-operating-loss-grows-to-38-billion-update-on-qt/

2. https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1h7ld8s7ldou8/The-Mortgage-Backed-Securities-Market-Faces-New-Challenges

3. https://www.connectcre.com/stories/large-office-loan-defaults-are-on-the-rise/