市場的廣度和深度(2) : 熊市來了嗎?

在上一次的市場的廣度和深度分析中給出了牛市預警(https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/77394/202007/25678.html).  Let's review those indicators again to see how they turn out to be after 2 consecutive down days.

It only down less than 200 points today, however the market tailwind changes a bit. There is no 2 consecutive down days for more than 1 month, which means every dips was bought up by bulls. Today bulls tried several times to pump up the market, but it failed every time.

It is very tricky for today's close. The candlestick brings hope to  bulls, because it could be a bottom pattern; meanwhile it brings imagination to bears since it could be a continuation pattern as well.

回到market breadth indicators, 看圖先.

1.  50MA precentage 回複正常, 並且下降不多, 說明沒有一點恐慌

2.  NYMO 也回複正常, it is-5.56, 遠未到熊市臨界點-50.

3. CPC 前一陣太低, 說明大家沒有風險意識, 買PUT hedge太少. 今天的值是正常的. 今天CPCE有點增加太快, 而CPCI小幅下降, 但願是散戶買PUT保護造成的.

4. SPXADP也很tricky, 收到了可上可下的位置

 

5. VIX收一紅棒棒, 有同學說這不是烏雲蓋頂嗎? 在頂部, 這可能是一個反轉信號, 但在底部也會是一個中繼信號. 

但VIX收在200MA以下, 這也許說明不會有近期大跌.

6. 綜上所述, 下周大跌的可能不大, 尤其許多重量級財報還沒公布. 要大跌也會等到這些財報結束. 下周大盤以震蕩為主, 不過陰跌也很難受. 還有個股, that is a different story, some may go to the moon, the others may fall like a rock.

不過圖形上看, 現在很像今年2月中的情形, 希望大家多加小心, 調整好自己倉位, 迎接市場的風雨.

以上全是個人愚見, 僅供參考. YMYD.

大家周末愉快!