加拿大,我為你哭泣:92歲教授兼前國會議員就移民與福利國家發出警告
加拿大資訊 2026年4月29日 加拿大下議院
I cry for you, Canada: 92-year-old prof and ex-MP’s warning about immigration & welfare state
Canada Info 2026年4月29日 HOUSE OF COMMONS OF CANADA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CNUfg3IBCI
加拿大能否在維持福利國家的同時開放邊境? “我現在幾乎為這個國家感到難過。”
前國會議員、著名經濟學家赫伯特·格魯貝爾教授在這次精彩的演講中毫不掩飾地表達了自己的觀點。從規模不經濟到臨時居留的隱性成本,他解釋了自己撰寫新書《加拿大,我為你哭泣》的原因。
現在修複這個體係是否為時已晚?歡迎在評論區留言討論。
格魯貝爾教授,您的五分鍾演講時間現在開始。
謝謝主席女士。我曾隨財政委員會在全國各地奔走兩年,所以對這裏的氛圍非常熟悉。最重要的是,我歡迎像我們現在這樣就移民政策的科學性舉行公開聽證會。我希望這能為議會帶來應有的關注和討論。
就我個人而言,盡管我在移民經濟學領域發表了眾多學術論文,但我從未被邀請參與有關製定官方移民目標和甄選標準的討論。作為1993年至1997年的議員,我也從未被要求就這些問題進行投票。隻有一次,一位部長私下告訴我,要繼續我的研究和發表論文,並督促他履行職責。
我認為,最需要改變的是決定臨時居民人數和遴選標準的政策。臨時居民的人數和遴選標準。獲準在加拿大工作或學習的臨時居民。填補經濟中季節性或臨時勞動力短缺的外國人應按一定數量準許入境。應由議會委員會設定定期準許入境的間隔。不應有外國學生就讀小學和中學。他們對加拿大沒有益處,反而會加重我們學校的資源負擔。
應允許外國學生就讀加拿大的學院、大學和研究生院。他們為院校和經濟帶來寶貴的益處,尤其是在他們支付學費的情況下。 在這些院校完成學位的外國學生不應再是永久居民身份的優先候選人。政府應采取政策,確保臨時工和學生在簽證到期後離開加拿大。
現在,關於另一個問題,父母和祖父母應該隻被授予超級訪客簽證,就像在2016年政府發起改革之前那樣。 這非常合理。
如果一個外國人不想在沒有父母陪伴的情況下來加拿大,他就不應該來。處理尋求庇護者的製度需要改革。或許與其他西方民主國家一樣,從根本上進行改革。 3:23 3分23 此類改革可能包括製定減少難民身份申請積壓的方法。
我完全意識到這是我們外交政策麵臨的最棘手的問題之一,而且沒有簡單的解決方案。這其中存在著涉及基本人類價值觀的權衡。
移民的苦難,以及那些在住房、醫療服務方麵遇到困難的加拿大人的苦難。
還有一分鍾。格魯貝爾教授,請原諒。
好的。謝謝您,女士。我講完了。
[笑聲]
謝謝您,教授。您……謝謝。我很感激。好的,馬庫斯先生。該你了。謝謝主席女士,也感謝今天到場的所有證人。我想先問您,格魯巴爾教授。您是否認為自由黨政府在允許大量移民入境之前,考慮過對醫療保健、住房和就業等方麵的影響?就業?
我不知道,但事實證明,無論他們做了什麽,對加拿大來說都非常糟糕。
嗯,您是否同意,當一次性接納這麽多人時,會存在規模不經濟效應?而且成本實際上可能比以更緩慢、更可持續的方式進行移民更高?
沒錯。我的意思是,它不會變成正麵的,而是對整個國家來說變成負麵的。我非常像我們從島上聽到的那樣,先生們,那裏勞動力短缺,我深表同情,但是如果我們引進太多任何東西,突然之間就會出現調整問題,而且不止如此調整問題正在扼殺我們
經濟。
5:47 5分鍾47嗯,先生,您提出的觀點非常中肯。您認為這會對以下方麵產生影響:
5:55 5分鍾55嗯,新移民來到加拿大後能否取得成功,尤其是在移民數量如此之多的情況下?
6:03 6分鍾3當然,這會造成一些問題,比如找工作、找住處、獲得醫療保健等等。
6:12 6分鍾12您認為目前的環境有利於新移民在加拿大取得成功嗎?
6:20 6分鍾20嗯,我沒有接觸過移民,但我閱讀了很多關於經濟方麵的情況,我聽說
6:29 6分鍾29最近移民強烈遊說降低移民率。 6:39 6分39沒錯。他們,他們是那些最先感受到這個問題的人,就像我們自己的年輕人一樣。
6:49 6分49那些工作被搶走的熟練年輕人。
6:55 6分55你認為政府應該負責提供……
7:01 7分1例如,為尋求庇護者和難民提供住宿和住房嗎?
7:09 7分9呃,你知道,新來的人?政府應該……我的評論:是的。是的。我的評論
7:16 7分16秒,關於我們在這裏繼續討論的這場爭議,以及之前關於尋求庇護者的爭議,
7:24 7分24 是,我們提供的福利越多,
7:30 7分30 我們就會有更多尋求庇護者,他們可能擁有合法的庇護申請,也可能沒有。
7:39 7分39 但卻從中受益。嗯。好吧,是的。謝謝你。
7:48 7分48 一位著名經濟學家,米爾頓·弗裏德曼,我以前在芝加哥教書時的同事,他說福利國家和自由移民是不相容的。
7:58 7分58 福利國家和自由移民。而在過去10年裏,我們
8:05 8分5 越來越傾向於自由移民。而我們正在為這種不可能的預測買單。
8:14 8分鍾14 先生,說到這,呃,我不知道您是否聽說過,但政府遇到了不少爭議,因為他們預訂了
8:22 8分鍾22 酒店,把人們安置在全國各地的酒店裏,呃,隻是把他們安置在那裏,
8:29 8分鍾29 費用高昂。現在,為了擺脫這場爭議,他們製定了一項新計劃,最近我們發現他們給了渥太華市4000萬美元,
8:38 8分鍾38 直接購買一家酒店,以便安置這些人。所以,他們不再租房了。他們現在住在一家由……
8:47 8分鍾47 渥太華市擁有的酒店裏,用來安置這些人。例如,昨天我讀到一篇文章,說有2735萬
8:55 8分鍾 55 給安大略省皮克林鎮的錢,用來做同樣的事情,購買一家酒店。
9:04 9分鍾 4 那裏。所以,4000萬給了渥太華,2735萬給了皮克林。這隻是我們目前所知的兩個
9:11 9分鍾 11 到目前為止,我們知道的他們這樣做的地方。他們一直很不願意提供透明的信息,給我們一份
9:19 9分鍾 19 他們給了多少個市政當局的名單。先生,您對此有何看法?您還有一分鍾時間。
9:25 9分鍾 25 嗯,總的來說,我認為所有這些都會在我正在寫的書中寫到。我為你哭泣,加拿大。
9:38 9分38 我於1972年來到美國,當時我擁有終身教授職位。
9:45 9分45 因為我熱愛加拿大,熱愛溫哥華,所以我來到了美國。現在我幾乎要為這個國家感到遺憾了。
9:53 9分53 我很高興我已經92歲了。
9:57 9分57 最後我想說,感謝您今天蒞臨。我希望當我92歲的時候,如果有人邀請我來這裏演講,如果
10:05 10分5 我有幸能活到那個時候。感謝您作為國會議員為加拿大所做的貢獻。感謝您今天蒞臨。不客氣。
10:13 10分13 謝謝。謝謝您,格魯貝爾教授,也謝謝您,馬納格斯先生。下一個。
10:18 10分鍾18 謝謝主席女士。格魯貝爾教授,[清嗓子] 當我看到您多年來令人印象深刻的成就時……
10:26 10分鍾26 直到後來我讀了一些您的資料,才知道您曾是國會議員。這讓我有點意外,但我很高興今天能與您交流。
10:36 10分鍾36 在您的政策曆程中,您傾向於關注財政責任、勞動力市場競爭、
10:44 10分鍾44 基礎設施限製以及有選擇的經濟驅動型移民。
10:50 10分50秒 我來自安大略省的尼亞加拉地區,我們親身經曆了您所描述的壓力。
10:59 10分59秒 關於住房短缺、基礎設施緊張以及就業平衡勞動力需求與停滯不前的工資和關鍵行業等問題。
11:08 11分8秒 我們親身經曆了這些,現實提出了一些根本性的問題。我想知道您能否向委員會介紹一下您評估移民對財政淨影響的框架。
11:17 11分17秒 您所說的移民對財政的淨影響。
哪些變量最重要?政策製定者應該如何解讀這些結果?
11:30 11分30秒 嗯,你提到的那本書是弗雷澤研究所不太情願地出版的。
11:38 11分38秒 一位合著者,呃,是一位在渥太華生活了很久的美國人。事情是這樣的:
11:48 11分48秒 後來我們聊著聊著,就注意到了以下事實:
11:54 11分54秒 加拿大統計局發現,當移民進入加拿大時,
12:03 12分3秒 他們的收入低於
12:10 12分10秒 同齡且受教育程度相同的加拿大工人。
12:14 12分14秒 而且這種低收入狀況持續了20年,從未
12:23 12分23秒 完全消失。我不知道這算不算歧視,但無論如何,這是事實,而且在我們寫這本書的時候,情況越來越糟。
12:31 12分31秒 加拿大每五年就有一個統計數據顯示情況更糟。
12:38 12分38秒 情況變得更糟。與此同時,他們在加拿大定居後,有權享受我們提供的所有政府福利。
12:50 12分50秒 因此,我們也實行了累進所得稅製。這樣,這些低收入的移民
12:59 12分59秒 可以享受所有與收入無關的福利。
13:06 13分6秒 同時,由於收入較低,他們繳納的稅款也少得多。我們計算過,
13:16 13分16在80年代,移民給加拿大其他地區帶來了數十億美元的成本。
13:24 13分24這些成本從未被提及,即使提及也被忽視了。
13:32 13分32我們因為指出這些事情而被憎恨。
13:37 13分37人們會說:“哦,這是錯的。這是錯的。”數據擺在那裏。沒有人反駁它們。
13:46 13分46當然,大眾媒體不喜歡這個想法,因為當時加拿大的氛圍仍然是移民
13:55 13分55永遠不會犯錯。我們需要更多更多更多。問題是,
14:01 14分1我們是否都想作為世界上的小企業主來補貼移民?
14:08 14分鍾8 這是我們應該討論的問題。
14:11 14分鍾11 在我積極從事寫作的時候,這些問題從未被討論過。我們應該讓雙方都參與進來。
14:20 14分鍾20 教授,我想說的是,我的時間有限,所以我想知道……好的。我預料到您會打斷我。
14:28 14分鍾28 否則我無法繼續。呃,教授,批評人士說,呃,您的方法可能低估了長期和
14:35 14分鍾35 第二代能源的益處。您對此有何回應?政府應該如何平衡短期財政影響和長期經濟收益?
14:47 14分鍾47 嗯,這是我們必須考慮的另一個問題。我們……一分鍾。
14:53 14分鍾53 埃隆·馬斯克並不典型。
14:57 14分57秒從長遠來看,我們有很多……凱恩說的。
15:06 15分6秒他說。所以,我不知道,呃,在你看來,加拿大應該如何確定合適的移民水平?
15:13 15分13秒每年。呃,哪些經濟指標或產能限製應該指導這些決定?
15:20 15分20秒這裏有一群像這樣的人。
15:24 15分24秒聽聽那些小企業主、農民,甚至是大公司,大……
15:32 15分32秒製造業,大量的廉價勞動力,廉價的進口勞動力。我們聽取這些意見,也聽取像我這樣的人的意見,我們說:
15:41 15分41秒如果你總是有廉價勞動力,
15:47 15分47秒社會就沒有動力采用節省勞動力的設備。 15:54 15分54秒 呃,謝謝格魯貝爾教授,謝謝戴維斯先生。謝謝主席女士。呃,格魯貝爾教授,呃,加拿大的生產力在過去十年自由黨執政期間一直在下降。
16:04 16分4秒 投資正以前所未有的速度流出加拿大,而這筆資金卻從自由黨2025年開始的昂貴信用卡預算中被削減。所以我的問題是:
16:12 16分12秒 像自由黨過去幾年那樣大幅提高移民水平,能否彌補生產力低下、商業投資疲軟和資本形成不足的問題?
16:24 16分24 恰恰相反,除非他們提高生產力,否則它會降低人均收入。
16:33 16分33 提高生產力,而我們沒有足夠的生產力,你知道,生產力是
16:42 16分42 當加州減少墨西哥的農業工人流入山穀時,
16:49 16分49 每個人都說這會毀了加州。
16:55 16分55 結果並沒有。他們沒有手工采摘西紅柿,而是開發了
17:02 17分2 機器來采摘西紅柿。但這些西紅柿的味道不如以前的好。那麽,他們做了什麽?
17:11 17分11 他們做了什麽?他們對西紅柿進行了基因改造,使它們能夠承受
17:18 17分18 采摘,並且味道和以前的一樣好。謝謝你,格魯貝爾先生。很抱歉我們時間太短。謝謝您,何先生。
I cry for you, Canada: 92-year-old prof and ex-MP’s warning about immigration & welfare state
Canada Info 2026年4月29日 HOUSE OF COMMONS OF CANADA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CNUfg3IBCI
Can Canada support a welfare state and open borders at the same time? "I'm now almost sorry for this country."
Professor Herbert Grubel, a former MP and renowned economist, doesn't hold back in this powerful session. From the diseconomies of scale to the hidden costs of temporary residency, he explains why he’s writing his latest book, I Cry for You Canada.
Is it too late to fix the system? Let's discuss in the comments.
Professor Gubell, your five minutes starts now.
Thank you, Madame Chair. I I traveled around the country for two years with finance committee, so I'm very familiar with the atmosphere. Most fundamentally, I welcome public hearings as we are having now on the science of our immigration policy.
I think I hope it will give the deserved publicity and discussion in parliament that has been needed. On a personal note, despite my numerous academic publications in the field of immigration economics, I was never asked to participate in the discussions around the setting of official immigration targets and selection criteria.
Nor as a member of parliament from 93 to 97 was I ever asked to vote on these issues. Only once did a minister tell me privately to keep up my research and publications and hold his feet to the fire.
I believe that in the that in greatest need of change are policies determining the number and selection criteria of temporary residents. temporary residents who are admitted to work or study in Canada.
Foreigners who fill seasonal or temporary labor shortages in the economy should be admitted in numbers at frequent regular intervals and set by parliamentary committee.
The there should be no foreign students attending elementary and secondary schools. They do not benefit Canada and burden our schools resources.
Foreign students should be admitted to attend Canadian colleges, universities, and graduate schools. They bring
valuable benefits to the institutions and economy, especially to the extent that they pay tuition.
Foreign students who have completed degrees in these institutions should no longer be preferred candidates for
permanent resident status. The government should adopt policy to ensure does that temporary workers and students
2:36
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leave Canada after their visas have.
Now on a separate issue, parents and grandparents should be granted only super visitor visas as they had been practiced before the changes initiated by the government in 2016. It makes eminent sense.
If a a foreigner does not want to come without his parents, he just should not come. The system dealing with asylum seekers needs to be reformed. Possibly fundamentally much as it is in other western democracies.
Such reforms may include the development of ways in which the backlog of applications for refugees status is
reduced. I'm fully aware that this is one of the most difficult problems our foreign policy faces and there are no
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easy solutions. There are tradeoffs that involve fundamental human values. the suffering of
immigrants, but also the suffering of Canadians who find their uh housing, their medic access to medical one minute left. Professor Grubel, pardon me.
One minute left. Fine. Thank you, madam. I'm done.
4分鍾18秒鍾
Thank you, professor. You are uh Thank you. I appreciate that. Okay, Mr. Makus. Over to you.
4:25
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Thank you, Madam Chair, and thank you to all of our witnesses for appearing before us today. Uh like to start my questions with you, Professor Grubal.
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Um, do you believe that the uh Liberal government considered the impact on uh things like health care, housing, and
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jobs prior to letting in the large number of immigrants that they have allowed in over the past decade?
4:52
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I wouldn't know, but it turns out whatever they did, it was very bad for Canada.
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Um would you agree that when uh when there are uh that there are diseconomies of scale when letting in so many people
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at once and the costs may actually be higher than if immigration was done in a in a slower more sustainable manner?
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Exactly. I mean it it turns not into positive it turns for the country as a whole as a negative. I have great
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sympathy for gentlemen like we heard from the island uh that there a labor shortage but
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if we bring in too many too much of anything suddenly you will have adjustment problems and it was more than
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adjustment problems was killing our economy.
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Well, that that you make a very valid point there, uh, sir. Uh, do do you think it it it it has an impact on, uh,
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uh, the ability of newcomers that coming to Canada to be able to have successful outcomes when there's so many of them
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coming and of course it creates a problem with with uh, finding jobs and finding a residence to live and, you know, getting healthcare and so forth.
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Do you think it's an environment that that is conducive for them to be able to succeed in Canada as newcomers to our country?
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Well, I'm not in contact with immigrants, but I read a lot about what is going on in the economy and I hear
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that the that the recent immigrants are a strong lobby for reducing the rate of immigrant.
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That's right. They they are the ones they are the ones at the front to feel this problem as well as our own les
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skilled young people whose jobs are being taken.
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Do you think that the government should be in the business of providing um
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accommodations, housing for uh for for example asylum seekers and refugees and
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uh uh you know newcomers coming? Should the government My commentary Yeah. Yeah. My commentary
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on this controversy that we're continuing here and was going on before with the
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asylum seekers is that the more benefits we offer,
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the more we will have asylum seekers who may may or may not have legitimate
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claims but are getting benefits from doing so. Mhm. Well, yeah. Thank you for that.
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A famous economist, Milton Friedman, colleague of mine when I was teaching in Chicago said it is incompatible
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to have the welfare state and free immigration. And we in the last 10 years
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have been moving more and more towards free immigration. and that prediction that it is impossible we're paying for.
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Along those lines, sir, uh I don't know if you have heard, but you the government ran into quite a bit of controversy because they were uh booking
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hotels and putting people in hotels uh across across the country uh uh just housing them housing them there at
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exorbitant costs. Now, to get away from that controversy, they created a new program and recently we found out they gave the city of Ottawa $40 million to
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purchase an outright purchase a hotel so they can house these people. So, they're not renting anymore. They house them now in a in a hotel that is owned by uh by
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the city of Ottawa to house these people. Uh yesterday, for example, I I read an article of another 27.35
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million uh that was given to uh Pickering, the town of Pickering here in in Ontario to do the same thing to purchase a hotel
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there. So 40 million to Ottawa, 27 35 million to Pickering. That's only two
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locations that we know where they've done that so far that we know of. uh they've been very reluctant to provide to be transparent and give us a list of
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of how many municipalities they've given money to. What do you have to say about that, sir? You have one minute left.
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Well, most generally, I think it will all be said in the book that I'm writing. I cry for you, Canada.
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I came in 1972 having a professorship with tenure in
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the United States because I love Canada and I love Vancouver. I'm now almost sorry for this country.
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I'm glad I'm 92.
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I'll close by saying this. Thank you for appearing before us today. Uh I hope that when I'm 92 years old, somebody will ask me to come and present here if
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I'm fortunate enough to get there. and thank you for your service to Canada as a member of parliament. Appreciate your presence here today. You're welcome.
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Thank you. Uh thank you, Professor uh Grubel, and thank you, Mr. Managus. Next.
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Thank you, Madam Chair. Uh Professor Grubel, [clears throat] when I was looking at your body of work, your impressive body of work over the years.
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It wasn't until later after I'd read some of what what you've been doing that you were a member of Parliament. So, that was a bit of a surprise to me, but I'm happy to um engage with you today.
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In your in your policy history, you have tended to focus on fiscal responsibility, uh labor market competition,
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infrastructure constraints, and selective economically driven immigration.
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Uh I'm from I'm from the Niagara region in Ontario and we see firsthand um how the pressures that you have written
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about from housing shortages uh strained infrastructure and employment balancing labor needs with stagnant wages and key sectors.
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We've lived that lived reality raises couple of fundamental questions. But I wonder if you could walk the committee through your framework for assessing
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what you refer to as net fiscal impact on im of immigration. What variables matter most and how should policymakers interpret those results?
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Well, the book you're referring to was published by the Frasier Institute somewhat reluctantly
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a co-author uh a an an American who lived long time in Ottawa. It started
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off and we got away uh our attention was drawn to the following
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fact that when immigrants enter Canada, Statistics Canada finds out that they
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have below income that is below
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Canadian workers of the same age in education.
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And this low income persists for the next 20 years and it never goes
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completely away. I don't know whether it's discrimination whatever it is that's a fact and it was getting when we
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were writing our book worse every five years statistic Canada showed that it's
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gotten worse. At the same time that they settle in Canada, they entitled to all the government benefits that we offer.
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And as a result of this, we have also we have progressive income taxation. So that these immigrants with the low
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incomes are getting all the benefits which are not tied to income
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while the taxes they pay are considerably lower because their incomes are lower. And we calculated that this
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was in the 80s several billion dollars worth of costs that immigrants
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impose on the rest of Canada that is never mentioned and even then it was disregarded.
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We're being we're being hated for pointing out these kinds of things.
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People go, "Oh, this is wrong. This is wrong." The numbers are there. Nobody refuted them.
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But of course, the popular media didn't like the idea because the mood in Canada at the time was still immigrants
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are cannot do any wrong. We need more and more and more. The question is,
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do we all want to subsidize as a small businessman in the world?
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That's an issue that we ought to discuss.
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At the time that I was active in writing, these issues were never discussed. We ought to have people from both sides.
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Let let me say so professor I have limited time so I wonder if Yes. Okay. I expected you to interrupt
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me otherwise I can't keep going. Uh, professor, critics, uh, say your approach may underweight long-term and
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second generation benefits. How do you respond to that? And how should governments balance short-term fiscal impacts with long-term economic gains?
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Well, that is a another question that we have to look at. We One minute.
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Elon Musk is not typical.
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It's it it we have a lot of uh in in the longer run in the longer run that Kane
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said. So I I don't know in uh in your view how should Canada determine the right level of immigration
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each year. Uh what economic indicators or capacity constraints should guide in those decisions?
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Have a group of people like this here.
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Listen to those small businessesmen, farmers, even the big companies, the big
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manufacturing, a lot of cheap labor, cheap importer labor. We listen to that and listen to guys like me who say that
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if you uh always have cheap labor available,
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society has no incentive to adopt labor saving devices.
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Uh thank you, Professor Grubel, and thank you, Mr. Davies. That is Thank you, Madam Chair. Uh Professor Gubal, uh Canada's productivity has been weakening over the last liberal decade.
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investment is fleeing the country like we've never seen before and this is taken out of the Liberal costly credit card budget uh from 2025. So my question
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is can radically increasing immigration levels at rates like the Liberals have done in the past few years compensate for poor productivity, weak business investment and low capital formation.
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Quite to the contrary, it reduces uh per capita income unless uh they
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increase productivity and we don't have the productivity and the productivity is you know
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when when California reduced the use the inflow of Mexican
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agricultural worker into the valley everybody said it will kill California.
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Well, it didn't. Instead of tomatoes being picked by hand, they developed
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machines to pick the tomatoes. And the tomatoes didn't taste as good as the ones that they had before. So, what did
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they do? They modified genetically the tomatoes so they could stand being to
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picked and tasted as good as the ones we had before. Thank you, Mr. Grubel. I'm sorry that we had so little time. Thank you, Mr. Ho.