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傑弗裏·D·薩克斯訪談帕斯卡爾·洛塔茲
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_oRDTJRvtE&ab_channel=NeutralityStudies
洛塔茲教授於2025年6月10日的總結
為戰爭而戰
烏克蘭戰爭爆發三年後，西方陷入了自私自利的妄想和否認的怪圈。
最初的戰略誤判已演變成一場史無前例的地緣政治災難——災難的不僅是俄羅斯，而是整個西方世界。首當其衝的便是歐盟，如今，歐盟看起來比俄羅斯在戰爭中的任何時候都更加不穩定，內部也更加裂痕累累。這不僅是因為誤判，更是因為拒絕承認失敗，歐盟的惡棍們即使在經曆了17項（！！）製裁方案後，仍然沒有吸取任何教訓。在最近的一次中立研究講座中，經濟學家兼資深政策顧問傑弗裏·薩克斯將揭穿那些讓這場戰爭持續下去的敘事，並揭露西方外交政策思維中的深層裂痕。
一場本不該發生的戰爭
我們必須像念咒語一樣反複強調：這場戰爭本可以避免。數十年來，外交官、學者，甚至他們自己的情報官員都曾警告美國及其北約盟友，稱這種擴張將引發與俄羅斯的對抗，但美國及其北約盟友卻不顧這些警告，繼續向東推進。這些警告被置之不理。《明斯克協議》曾是通往和平的一條可能途徑，卻從未得到認真履行。相反，西方國家並非將烏克蘭視為一個主權行為體，而是將其視為遏製莫斯科的更廣泛行動中的一枚棋子。
其結果是烏克蘭持續遭受災難，西方陷入戰略僵局。公眾被灌輸了一種幻想——俄羅斯經濟將崩潰，普京將下台，烏克蘭將在北約的支持下取得勝利。然而，這一切都沒有發生。俄羅斯的經濟隻是簡單地適應了（他們怎麽敢不死心塌地？！），政治領導層依然完好無損，而烏克蘭正麵臨毀滅。然而，這種敘事仍在繼續，被智庫、媒體和那些對戰爭投入太多卻不願承認自己犯錯的職業官僚所推動。
歐洲的戰略破產
歐洲領導人非但沒有重新調整策略，反而加倍下注，犧牲自身的經濟和外交利益，以維持大西洋彼岸指使的戰爭態勢。歐盟完全沒有獨立思考的能力。在烏克蘭整整一代人被消滅的同時，歐盟隻是不斷地運送武器，鸚鵡學舌般地重複著關於團結和價值觀的口號。歐洲人非但沒有承認這場戰爭必須在談判桌上解決，反而仍在推動更多同樣失敗的軍事和經濟升級，即便他們的跨大西洋庇護者顯然已經離開了。
與此同時，歐洲在國內的誓言與日俱增。德國工業競爭力正在下降。能源成本飆升。美國從液化天然氣出口和武器銷售中獲利，而其歐洲盟友卻不得不為此買單。所有這一切都源於一種更深層次的擔憂：承認烏克蘭危機的失敗將暴露歐盟外交政策的空洞，並粉碎西方凝聚力的幻象。
媒體推動者
這一切中最陰險的因素之一就是媒體。西方媒體非但沒有挑戰權力，反而充當了國家敘事的放大器——無視令人不快的事實，壓製異議，並將外交行為描繪成背叛。其結果是公眾被係統性地誤導。和平雖然可能實現，卻成了一個諱莫如深的詞。
這種信息控製反映了自由民主國家更廣泛的轉變，如今，發動戰爭的借口是令人內疚的、道德上值得懷疑的討伐。烏克蘭戰爭已然淪為炫耀美德的舞台，細微的差別被擯棄，任何呼籲談判的人都被貼上了克裏姆林宮傀儡的標簽。薩克斯的這番話一針見血：“戰爭持續的時間越長，代價就越大，不僅是烏克蘭，還有歐洲的自主權以及西方作為全球參與者的信譽。”
活在昔日榮耀中
如果說這場戰爭暴露了什麽，那就是西方在適應多極世界方麵根深蒂固的無能。西方領導層固守著自己無可爭議的主導地位，依然深陷於後冷戰時代的妄想之中，承認失敗意味著在快速變化的全球秩序中直麵自身地位的下降。他們不願麵對現實，而是選擇回避——犧牲地區和平來維護自身的內心平靜。因此，戰爭曠日持久，並非為了勝利，也並非為了價值觀，而是為了避免一個衰落的帝國醒來後蒙受恥辱。
Jeffrey D. Sachs interview with Pascal Lottaz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
Professor Lottaz's summary on June 10, 2025
War for War's Sake
Three years into the Ukraine War, the West is stuck in a loop of self-serving delusion and denial.
What began as a strategic miscalculation has turned into a geopolitical disaster of epic proportions—not for Russia but for the Collective West. First among them is the European Union, which, by now, looks more unstable and riddled with internal fractures than Russia did at any point in the war. Fueled not just by misjudgment, but by a refusal to admit failure, the EU kakistocrats haven’t learned a thing, even after 17 (!!) sanction packages. In a recent Neutrality Studies talk, economist and veteran policy advisor Jeffrey Sachs is here to dismantle the narratives that keep this war alive and lay bare the deep fractures in Western foreign policy thinking.
A War that should have never happened
We must repeat this like a mantra: This war was avoidable. The US and its NATO allies pushed eastward despite decades of warnings—from diplomats, scholars, and even their own intelligence officials—that such expansion would trigger confrontation with Russia. Those warnings were ignored. The Minsk Agreements, once a possible path to peace, were never honoured in good faith. Instead, the West treated Ukraine not as a sovereign actor, but as a pawn in a broader campaign to contain Moscow.
What resulted is this ongoing catastrophe for Ukraine and a strategic deadlock for the West. The public was sold a fantasy—that Russia’s economy would collapse, Putin would fall, and Ukraine would triumph with NATO’s backing. None of that happened. Russia’s economy simply adapted (how dare they not drop-dead?!), the political leadership remains intact, and Ukraine is facing devastation. Yet the narrative continues, pushed by think tanks, media outlets, and career bureaucrats too invested in the war to admit they got it wrong.
Europe's Strategic Bankruptcy
Rather than recalibrate, European leaders have doubled down, sacrificing their own economic and diplomatic interests to maintain a war posture that was dictated from across the Atlantic. The EU has utterly failed to think for itself. The block just keeps sending weapons and parroting slogans about unity and values, while an entire generation in Ukraine is being wiped out. And instead of admitting that this war must be solved at the negotiating table, it’s the Europeans who are still pushing for ever more of the same failed military and economic escalation, even while their Trans-Atlantic Patron has clearly already moved on.
In the meantime, Europe’s domestic vows are mounting by the day. German industry is bleeding competitiveness. Energy costs are surging. And while the U.S. reaps profits from LNG exports and arms sales, its European allies are left holding the bill. And all of that because of a deeper fear: that admitting failure in Ukraine would expose the hollowness of EU foreign policy and shatter the illusion of Western coherence.
Media Enablers
One of the most insidious elements in all of this is the media. Far from challenging power, Western outlets have served as amplifiers of states’ narratives—ignoring inconvenient facts, silencing dissenting voices, and framing diplomacy as betrayal. The result is a public that’s been systematically misinformed. Peace, while possible, has become a hush-hush word.
This information control reflects a broader shift in liberal democracies, where war-making is now justified with guilt-tripping and questionable moral crusades. The Ukraine war has become a theatre of virtue-signalling, where nuances are banished, and anyone calling for negotiation is labeled a puppet of the Kremlin. Sachs got it absolutely right when he says that “The longer this continues, the more the costs will rise, not just for Ukraine, but for Europe’s autonomy and the credibility of the West as a global actor.”
Living in Past Glory
If this war has exposed anything, it’s the West’s deep inability to adapt to a multipolar world. Clinging to the illusion of unchallenged dominance, Western leadership remains trapped in a post-Cold War delusion, where admitting failure would mean confronting their diminished place in a rapidly shifting global order. Rather than face that reality, they’ve chosen avoidance—sacrificing regional peace to preserve their own peace of mind. And so the war drags on, not for victory, not for values, but to spare a fading empire the humiliation of waking up.
https://open.substack.com/pub/
