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John Clark 我又在吐槽挪威的主權財富基金了
是的，我又在吐槽挪威的主權財富基金了。
https://renx.ca/rant-norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-canada
想以負責任和前瞻性的方式處理這1萬億美元，想必很不容易……
2019年6月11日 John Clark AACI | 區域集團公司副總裁
jclark@regionalgroup.com
想以負責任和前瞻性的方式處理這1萬億美元，想必很不容易。
當然，我們加拿大沒有這個問題。與其他某個北極國家不同，加拿大很久以前就未能利用我們豐富的自然資源和能源儲備，為所有加拿大人積累如今都能享用的財富。
這項榮譽屬於挪威。無論從哪個角度來看，挪威的國土麵積、人口數量，還是Tim Hortons門店的數量，都遠不及加拿大。
早在2014年4月，我就曾撰文探討過與挪威相比，加拿大是如何揮霍財富的。
正如我在那篇文章中所述，這一切始於20世紀60年代末，當時一位伊拉克地質學家帶著家人來到挪威，為他的兒子尋找最佳的腦癱治療方法。這位地質學家的工作最終發現了預計可開采至2050年的石油儲備。
長遠的財富觀
當時的挪威政府充分意識到石油儲量並非無限。因此，它實施了規劃政策，以期為國家創造長期財富，並緩衝全球大宗商品市場周期性波動帶來的影響。
這種幹預主義的模式與加拿大的自由市場模式形成了鮮明對比，後者任由供需雙方以及私營部門利益相關者的利益變化無常的命運擺布。
挪威通過一家名為StatOil的國家石油公司（一家獨立的行業監管機構）來保護其利益，並規定StatOil在未來所有與外國石油公司合作的油田勘探中擁有不低於50%的股份。
然而，接下來發生的事情才是關鍵。1990年，挪威設立了國家石油基金。
該基金中隻有4%用於一般政府收入，並且僅用於資助基礎設施、教育和研究等重要項目。其餘資金則被反複投資。
加拿大幾乎沒有嚐試效仿
在國家層麵，加拿大從未采取過如此大膽而審慎的舉措。阿爾伯塔省曾嚐試過，並於1976年設立了遺產儲蓄信托基金。由於一些管理決策（我在這裏就不贅述了），該基金的規模並不大——根據最新的數據，2014年約為170億美元。
我為什麽現在又要反複提起這個話題？由於最近新聞報道了此事，以下是立法者希望對挪威1萬億美元主權財富基金采取的措施。
彭博社的文章寫道：
“主要立法者批準了對挪威1萬億美元主權財富基金進行一係列改革——從剝離部分石油股票，到全麵改革其固定收益資產，以及加強對煤炭投資的限製。”
政府對全球最大財富基金的嚴格控製依然盛行，其道德準則包括禁止煙草投資、氣候和人權標準等。
挪威保守黨政府已成立一個小組來審查這些準則，而反對黨工黨正在推動製定自己的規則，以道德或氣候為由篩選新的市場或行業進行投資。
綜上所述，當你擁有全球約1.5%的股票，沒有債務，並且僅占世界人口的0.07%時，1萬億美元確實能讓你擁有一定的權威和權力。
從過去（或正在發生的）錯誤中吸取教訓，規劃新的道路永遠不會太晚。那麽，加拿大應該從挪威吸取哪些教訓呢？
繁榮與蕭條綜合症的良方
在我們的體製下，我們在不同的政治意識形態之間搖擺不定，政黨即使隻獲得40%的選民支持率也能占據多數席位。執政黨會竭盡所能，但在缺乏長期戰略規劃的情況下，這很少能取得令人矚目的成果。
阿爾伯塔省曾計劃投資其石油和天然氣特許權使用費，但後來被無需繳納銷售稅的誘惑所困擾——短期收益換來長期破產。
我們需要妥善管理我們的自然資源，並認識到其中一些資源，例如石油，是一次性資產。
我們的產業政策需要更長遠，這樣我們才能避免加拿大各行各業經常經曆的“繁榮與蕭條綜合症”。您明白我的意思——這些周期會導致社區建立在投機之上，房價飛漲，消費者過度信貸。
然後，由於缺乏長期規劃，整個“紙牌屋”倒塌……並波及當地房地產市場。
如果您想討論此問題或任何與您的房產相關的估值主題，請通過 jclark@regionalgroup.com 與我聯係。我也是……
Yes, I'm ranting about Norway's sovereign wealth fund again
https://renx.ca/rant-norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-canada
It must be tough, trying to figure out what to do with US$1 trillion in a responsible and forward...
It must be tough, trying to figure out what to do with US$1 trillion in a responsible and forward-thinking fashion.
We in Canada, of course, do not have this problem. Unlike a certain other Arctic nation, Canada failed long ago to take advantage of our wealth of natural resources and energy reserves to build a nest egg all Canadians could enjoy today.
That honour goes to Norway. A country that’s a fraction the size of Canada by almost any measure – in size, in population, in Tim Hortons outlets.
Way back in April 2014, I wrote about how Compared to Norway, Canada is frittering away its wealth.
As I recounted in that article, the story goes that it all began in the late ’60s with an Iraqi geologist who brought his family to Norway in search of the best cerebral palsy treatment for his son. The geologist’s work led to the discovery of oil reserves that are expected to last until 2050.
A long-term view of wealth
The Norwegian government of the time was fully aware that oil reserves are not infinite. So, it implemented planning policies to manage the resource in a way that would create long-term wealth for the country and cushion it against the cyclical volatility of global commodities markets.
This interventionist approach is in sharp contrast to Canada’s free-market approach, which leaves the fickle fates of supply, demand and private-sector stakeholder interests in charge.
Norway protected its interests through a national oil company, StatOil, an independent industry regulator, and a provision that StatOil would have no less than a 50 per cent share in all future discoveries with foreign oil companies.
However, it’s what came next that’s important. In 1990, Norway set up a national oil fund.
Only four per cent of that fund is used for general government revenue, and then, only to fund important initiatives for infrastructure, education and research. The rest has been invested and reinvested.
Canada barely even tried to follow suit
At the national level, Canada has never undertaken such a bold and prudent initiative. Alberta attempted it, with its Heritage Savings Trust Fund established in 1976. As a result of management decisions I won’t bore you with here, it hasn’t amounted to much – about $17 billion in 2014, according to the last data available.
Why am I harping on this subject again now? Because of this story in the news recently, Here’s what lawmakers want to do with Norway’s $1 Trillion Fund.
The Bloomberg article reads:
“Key lawmakers gave a nod to a range of changes for Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund – from divesting some of its oil stocks, to an overhaul of its fixed-income holdings and tighter restrictions on coal investments.”
Tight government control of the world’s largest wealth fund continues to rule the day, with ethical guidelines that include a ban on tobacco investment to climate and human rights criteria.
Norway’s Conservative government has set up a panel to review these, while the opposition Labour Party is pushing for its own rules to screen new markets or industries for investment on ethical or climate grounds.
All of which to say, when you own about 1.5 per cent of the planet’s stocks, have no debt, and account for only 0.07 per cent of the world’s population, US$1 trillion does allow you to put yourself into a position of some authority and power.
It’s never too late to learn from past (or ongoing) mistakes and plot a new course. So, what lessons should Canada take from Norway?
A cure for Boom-and-Bust Syndrome
In our system, we bounce between political ideologies and give political parties a majority position with as little as 40 per cent of the electorate’s support. The party in power then proceeds as best it can, which seldom yields impressive results in the absence of a long-term strategic plan.
Alberta had a plan to invest its oil and gas royalties, then got sidelined by the lure of not needing a sales tax – short-term gain for long-term bankruptcy.
We need to be good financial stewards of our natural resources, and recognize that some of them, like oil, are once-only assets.
Our industrial policies need to be longer term so we can avoid the Boom-and-Bust Syndrome different industries in Canada too often experience. You know what I mean – those cycles that see communities get built up on speculation, housing prices skyrocket and consumers overextend themselves on credit.
Then the whole house of cards falls for lack of a long-term plan . . . and takes the local real estate market with it.
To discuss this or any valuation topic in the context of your property, please contact me at jclark@regionalgroup.com. I am also interested in your feedback and suggestions for future articles.
John Clark AACI | Vice President, The Regional Group of Companies Inc.
