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中國不再尊重美國,他們有理由這樣做

(2023-06-07 15:42:32) 下一個

中國不再尊重美國,他們有理由這樣做

托馬斯·弗裏德曼 2021年3月24日
 
有時候,喜劇演員比任何外交官都更擅長解讀外交政策問題。比如比爾·馬厄(Bill Maher)幾周前那場有關美中關係的經典吐槽,一下子就抓住了兩國之間最令人不安的對比:中國仍然可以搞定大事。美國則不然。
 
對於我們的許多政治領導人而言,執政已經成為了體育競技、娛樂或僅僅是無腦的部落戰爭。難怪中國領導人視我們為一個衰落的帝國,靠美國“例外主義”的餘灰為生。我希望我能說他們都錯了。
 
“新規則:如果你是一群‘愚民’,你將不會贏得21世紀的戰鬥。美國人是一群愚民,”馬厄說。“這是《阿拉伯的勞倫斯》(Lawrence of Arabia)的經典台詞,當勞倫斯告訴他的貝都因盟友,隻要他們的部落繼續爭吵不休,他們就仍然是一群‘愚民’。”
 
“我們都知道中國在做壞事。他們違反了香港自治的承諾;他們將維吾爾人關在拘禁營,並懲罰持不同政見者。而我們不想成為那樣。但我們得在告訴所有人該做什麽的威權政府和什麽都做不了的代議製政府之間找個位置。”
 
馬厄還說:“我們從2009年開始每周都在搞舉國的‘基建周’,但我們什麽都沒有做。半個國家正在進行一場永無休止的‘覺醒’比賽。……而另一半認為我們必須阻止蜥蜴人,因為他們在吃嬰兒。……中國看到問題就解決問題。他們修了一個水壩。而我們爭論如何為它更名。”
 
是的,中國有嚴重的問題。它的領導者沒有三頭六臂,但他們專注於真實的成功指標。“中國領導人是凶狠而脆弱的,”谘詢公司安可顧問公司(APCO Worldwide)大中華區董事長麥健陸(James McGregor)說。“正是因為他們不是由選民選出的,他們每天醒來都害怕他們的人民,這使他們非常注重業績”——尤其是圍繞就業、住房和空氣質量。
相比之下,如今,美國的政客是從安全的、操縱劃分選舉版圖的選區選出的,他們僅僅是通過為選民“表演”民粹主義橋段來尋求繼續執政。
 
每當我指出這一點時,極右或極左批評家都會荒唐地回應,“哦,所以你愛中國。”實際上,我對中國不感興趣。我在乎的是美國。我的目的是通過讓更多的美國人明白,中國可以非常邪惡,它也非常專注於教育人民、建設基礎設施、采用商業和科學最佳實踐以及憑業績提拔政府官員——這些是同時存在的,來讓我們從自滿中驚醒。如果我們在這些方麵不能與其匹敵,那麽譴責中國的邪惡行為將產生不了任何影響。
 
在上周中美兩國最高外交官舉行的阿拉斯加會議上,中國官員表現得十分明確,他們不再懼怕我們的批評,因為他們不像過去那樣尊重我們,而且他們認為其他國家也是如此。就像中國最高外交政策製定者楊潔篪大膽地告訴他的美國對等官員:“你們沒有資格在中國的麵前說,你們從實力的地位出發同中國談話。”
 
感到意外嗎?我們的上任總統激勵他的追隨者洗劫我們的國會大廈;他的黨派中多數人不承認我們的民主選舉結果;我們的一名國會議員認為是猶太人操作的太空激光引起了森林大火;左翼無政府主義者被允許接管波特蘭市中心的一部分,造成數月之久的破壞;在大流行期間,中國增發貨幣是為了投資更多的基礎設施,而美國增發貨幣以幫助消費者保持支出——相當一部分商品是中國製造的;並且美國的槍支暴力已經失控。你們認為以上這些中國人沒有注意到嗎?
 
你真認為他們沒有注意到嗎?
 
這讓我想到了計劃在中國舉行的2022年冬奧會。
 
越來越多的呼聲開始建議我們抵製在中國舉行的這次運動會。我支持這個呼籲,當我們目睹中國摧毀了香港的民主基礎設施,並利用拘禁營殘酷鎮壓新疆的維吾爾族穆斯林,而對世界輿論完全漠不關心。我們怎麽可能無視所有這些而專注於滑冰?
 
但是實際上:我們真正需要集中注意力去獲勝的不是2022年的奧運會,而是“2025年的奧運會”。
 
哦,你還沒聽說2025年奧運會嗎?它不在你的NBC節目日曆上?好吧,它可是在習近平的日曆上。2015年,習近平單方麵宣布了2025年奧運會,並表示隻有兩個參賽選手:中國和美國。這是習近平政府稱為“中國製造2025”的倡議。
 
這是中國製造業基地現代化的十年計劃,通過大規模投入政府資源,使習近平定義的10個21世紀關鍵高科技產業占主導地位,這無疑是在向美國發出挑戰。
 
這些行業包括人工智能;電動汽車和其他新能源汽車;5G通訊;機器人技術;新農業技術;航天和海洋工程;合成材料;以及生物醫學。
 
就在幾周前,當中國發布執行到2025年的第14個五年計劃時,習近平基本上加大了其政府在“創新驅動發展”方麵的投資力度。這是在告訴美國:我們將用你們的玩法打贏你,這樣我們就永遠再也不用依賴你獲得高科技產品。
 
我要對中國說的是:小心點。你的某些外交官聽起來太自大了。正如諺語所說:“驕傲在敗壞以先,狂心在跌倒之前。”美國在許多領域仍然表現出色。
 
但是,我要對美國同胞說的是:我們現在必須重新並加倍使用我們的成功秘訣。
 
那就是:教育我們的勞動力,使其達到並超越技術所需要的水平;建設世界上最好的港口、公路和電信基礎設施;吸引世界上最具活力和高智商移民以加強我們的大學以及開展新業務;製定最佳監管以激勵冒險精神同時遏製罔顧後果的行為;並且穩步增加政府資助的研究項目,以突破科學極限,使我們的企業家能夠將最有前途的新想法轉化為初創企業。
 
在這方麵是有一些希望的,麥健陸指出:“國會已經開始整理上屆國會提出的數百項中國法案,以製訂兩黨立法,以投資科學技術、研發以及在美國在中國宣稱的下一個前沿領域的相同技術上的領導地位。”拜登總統說要花數萬億美元!
 
 
沒有什麽比這更重要了。因為好的想法——尊重人權、民主,擁有獨立的司法機構、自由市場、對少數族裔的保護——在世界範圍內贏得支持,不僅僅是因為這些想法很好。它們擴散開來並被接受,是因為其他人看到,正在實踐這些想法的國家得到了正義、權力、財富、機會和穩定。
 
在20世紀,美國理念注入了每一個全球體製,因為我們強大了,而我們之所以強大,是因為我們經常去實踐我們的理念。
 
但是,如果我們繼續像最近那樣表現——“如我們所願地愚蠢”——那麽我們的權力將被削弱,隨之而來的是,我們的理念帶來的力量也會被削弱。無論我們如何大喊“美國,美國,美國”,我們對中國乃至整個世界的影響力都將逐漸減弱。所以,讓我們確保贏得關鍵的那場奧運會。

China Doesn't Respect Us Anymore — for Good Reason

We've stopped following our formula for success.

 

 

Sometimes a comedian cuts through foreign policy issues better than any diplomat. Bill Maher did that the other week with an epic rant on U.S.-China relations, nailing the most troubling contrast between the two countries: China can still get big things done. America, not so much.

For many of our political leaders, governing has become sports, entertainment or just mindless tribal warfare. No wonder China’s leaders see us as a nation in imperial decline, living off the leftover fumes of American “exceptionalism.” I wish I could say they were all wrong.

“New Rule: You’re not going to win the battle for the 21st century if you are a ‘silly people.’ And Americans are a silly people,” said Maher. “That’s the classic phrase from ‘Lawrence of Arabia’ — when Lawrence tells his Bedouin allies that as long as they stay a bunch of squabbling tribes, they will remain ‘a silly people.’ …

“We all know China does bad stuff. They break promises about Hong Kong autonomy; they put Uyghurs in camps and punish dissent. And we don’t want to be that. But it’s got to be something between authoritarian government that tells everyone what to do and a representative government that can’t do anything at all.”

 

Maher added: “On a national level, we’ve been having Infrastructure Week every week since 2009, but we never do anything. Half the country is having a never-ending ‘woke’ competition. … The other half believes we have to stop the lizard people, because they’re eating babies. … China sees a problem and they fix it. They build a dam. We debate what to rename it.”

Yes, China has huge problems. Its leaders are not 10 feet tall, but they are focused on real metrics of success. “China’s leaders are fierce but fragile,” argues James McGregor, the chairman of the consultancy APCO Worldwide, Greater China. “Precisely because they were not elected, they wake up every day scared of their own people, and that makes them very focused on performance” — particularly around jobs, housing and clean air.

By contrast, many U.S. politicians these days are elected from safe, gerrymandered districts and seek to stay in power by just “performing” for their base with populist theatrics.

Whenever I point this out, critics on the far right or far left ridiculously respond, “Oh, so you love China.” Actually, I am not interested in China. I care about America. My goal is to frighten us out of our complacency by getting more Americans to understand that China can be really evil AND really focused on educating its people and building its infrastructure and adopting best practices in business and science and promoting government bureaucrats on merit — all at the same time. Condemning China for the former will have zero impact if we’re not its equal in all of the latter.

At last week’s Alaska meeting between America’s and China’s top diplomats, Chinese officials made it quite clear that they no longer fear our criticism, because they don’t respect us as they once did, and they don’t think the rest of the world does, either. Or as Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign affairs policymaker, baldly told his U.S. counterparts: “The United States does not have the qualification … to speak to China from a position of strength.”

 

Surprised? What did you think, that the Chinese didn’t notice that our last president inspired his followers to ransack our Capitol, that a majority of his party did not recognize the results of our democratic election, that a member of our Congress believes that Jewish-run space lasers cause forest fires, that left-wing anarchists were allowed to take over a section of downtown Portland, creating havoc for months, that during the pandemic the U.S. printed money to help its consumers keep spending — much of it on Chinese-made goods — while China printed money to invest in even more infrastructureand that gun violence in America is out control?

 

You think they didn’t notice?

Which brings me to the 2022 Winter Olympics, scheduled for China.

A rising number of voices are beginning to suggest that we boycott the China Games. I have sympathy with that call, as we watch China crush the infrastructure of democracy in Hong Kong and use internment camps to brutally suppress Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang with utter indifference to world opinion. How do we just ignore all that and focus on ice skating?

But here’s the thing: The competition that we really need to focus on winning is not the 2022 Olympics but the 2025 Olympics.

Oh, you haven’t heard of the 2025 Olympics? They are not on your NBC calendar? Well, they are on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calendar. Xi unilaterally declared the 2025 Olympics in 2015 and suggested that there would be only two competitors: China and America. It was an initiative that Xi’s government called “Made in China 2025.”

It was a 10-year plan to modernize China’s manufacturing base by massively investing government resources to dominate what Xi defined as the 10 key high-tech industries of the 21st century, and he was implicitly daring America to go head-to-head.

 

The industries include artificial intelligence; electric cars and other new energy vehicles; 5G telecommunications; robotics; new agricultural technologies; aerospace and maritime engineering; synthetic materials; and biomedicine.

And just a few weeks ago, when China issued its 14th five-year plan, to run through 2025, Xi basically doubled down on his government’s investment in “innovation-driven development.” Message to America: We will try to beat you at your own game so we will never, ever again be dependent on you for high-tech goods.

My message to China is: Be careful. Some of your diplomats sound awfully arrogant. As the proverb says: “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.” America still excels in a lot of areas.

But my message to my fellow Americans is: We now have to return to and double down on what was our formula for success.

And that is: educating our work force up to and beyond whatever technology demands; building the world’s best infrastructure of ports, roads and telecommunications; attracting the world’s most energetic and high-I.Q. immigrants to enrich our universities and start new businesses; legislating the best regulations to incentivize risk-taking while curbing recklessness; and steadily increasing government-funded research to push out the boundaries of science so our entrepreneurs can turn the most promising new ideas into start-ups.

 

On this front there is some hope, noted McGregor: “Congress has begun sorting through the hundreds of China bills introduced in the last Congress to forge bipartisan legislation to invest in science and technology, R&D and U.S. leadership in the same technologies that China has declared as the next frontiers.” And President Biden is talking about spending trillions!

Nothing could be more important. Because good ideas — respect for human rights, democracy, an independent judiciary, free markets, protection for minorities — don’t just win in the world because they are good ideas. They diffuse and are embraced because others see them producing justice, power, wealth, opportunity and stability in countries that practice them.

American ideals infused every global institution in the 20th century because we were powerful, and we were powerful because more often than not we implemented our ideals.

But, if we as a country continue to act as we have of late — “dumb as we want to be” — then our power will be diminished and with it the power of our ideals. We will have steadily less influence on China and on the world at large no matter how loudly we chant “U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.” So, let’s make sure we win the Olympics that count.

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