百思一解
每個人都在尋求認同，在幾十億的人海裏。每個人都在尋求答案，在無窮多的可能中。
正文
查了一下美國自1990到2015 25年間的人口普查數據，有一些有趣的數據跟大家分享。
| White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | |
| 1990 | 75.70% | 12.30% | 9.00% | 3.00% |
| 2000 | 69.70% | 12.70% | 12.50% | 3.80% |
| 2004 | 67.60% | 12.80% | 14.10% | 4.20% |
| 2010 | 63.70% | 12.60% | 16.30% | 4.80% |
| 2015 | 61.60% | 13.30% | 17.60% | 5.60% |
| 相對 1990的增幅 | -14.10% | 1.00% | 8.60% | 2.60% |
| 年均增幅 | -0.56% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
- 白人（西班牙裔除外）：人口比重從75.7%降至61.6%，降幅14.10%, 平均每年遞減0.56%.
- 黑人：基本沒變化（增長１％)
- 亞裔：人口比重從３％升至５.６％，增幅２.６％，年均增長０.１％.
- 西裔：人口比重從９％增至１７.６％，增幅８.６％，年均增長０.３４％
請注意，這裏的百分比是占全國人口的比例。值得關注的是：
- 白人人口比重的持續下降似乎沒有停止的趨勢，白人族群感到威脅是必然的，某種方式的反擊也在預料中。
- 亞裔保持穩定溫和增長。５.６％已經遠強與２５年前的３％。
- 非裔人口比重基本停滯，西裔一直在保持高速增長（年增速３倍於亞裔，１０倍於非裔)，人口比重已遠超非裔。
如果保持上述趨勢不變，並假設沒有新的其他大規模移民來源，可以預測１０，２０，３０年後如下結果：
| White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | |
| 2025 | 56.0% | 13.7% | 21.0% | 6.6% |
| 2035 | 50.3% | 14.1% | 24.5% | 7.7% |
| 2045 | 44.7% | 14.5% | 27.9% | 8.7% |
西裔人口增速如此高不可能是自然生殖的結果，隻能來自非法移民。製止非法移民克不容緩，但與民主黨的利益是衝突的。所以我很難相信民主黨會擔起這個責任。
(1): Undocumented aliens are not entitled to receive welfare.
Please take a look at this:
“Undocumented immigrants do not qualify for welfare, food stamps, Medicaid, and most other public benefits. Most of these programs require proof of legal immigration status and under the 1996 welfare law, even legal immigrants cannot receive these benefits until they have been in the United States for more than five years.”
(see http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/news/economy/immigration-myths/ )
(2): On the other hand, they do contribute to the system, but do not receive corresponding benefits -- such as social security:
"They are paying an estimated $15 billion a year into Social Security with no intention of ever collecting benefits," Stephen Goss, chief actuary of the SSA told CNNMoney. "Without the estimated 3.1 million undocumented immigrants paying into the system, Social Security would have entered persistent shortfall of tax revenue to cover payouts starting in 2009," he said.
(see http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/20/news/economy/immigration-myths/ )
(3): >>>另外引進大量低技能勞動力美國能消化嗎？
Please see:
“Echoing the Department of Labor, the USDA, and the National Milk Producers Federation, agricultural labor economist James S. Holt made the following statement to Congress in 2007: “The reality, however, is that if we deported a substantial number of undocumented farm workers, there would be a tremendous labor shortage.””
And:
"“Over the past two decades, most efforts to estimate the fiscal impact of immigration in the United States have concluded that, in aggregate and over the long term, tax revenues of all types generated by immigrants—both legal and unauthorized—exceed the cost of the services they use.” "
(see http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/203984-illegal-immigrants-benefit-the-us-economy )
And:
Ben Carson: We need illegal aliens to do the jobs Americans won’t do
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0ENYaKCjXI
(4): >>> 川普的施政目標之一
But, did you know:
Trump favors amnesty for undocumented immigrants
On Fox News on November 12, Trump’s son Eric expressed frustration that the media overlooks this:
The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally. He’s been so clear about that and I know the liberal media wants to misconstrue it, but it’s deporting them and letting them back legally.
Eric Trump is right. His father has been crystal clear that he wants all the illegals to return and live in America.
Listen closely to what Trump is actually proposing. In an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash earlier this year, Trump explained his plan this way:
I would get people out and then have an expedited way of getting them back into the country so they can be legal…. A lot of these people are helping us … and sometimes it’s jobs a citizen of the United States doesn’t want to do. I want to move ’em out, and we’re going to move ’em back in and let them be legal.
WHO KNEW? TRUMP FAVORS AMNESTY FOR UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS
(see http://www.newsweek.com/who-knew-trump-favors-amnesty-undocumented-immigrants-395512 )
And:
Trump will not touch your entitlements (welfare)
Donald Trump says if he runs for president he’ll make sure entitlement programs aren’t touched.
“I’m not going to cut Social Security like every other Republican and I’m not going to cut Medicare or Medicaid,” Trump told The Daily Signal. “Every other Republican is going to cut, and even if they wouldn’t, they don’t know what to do because they don’t know where the money is. I do.”
(see https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/why-donald-trump-wont-touch-your-entitlements )
所以，這條理由使很多人關注川普，卻無法完全拉攏選民。但是由於他的直率，這一條理由就足以讓他失去很多西裔選民。所以，我們應該更生動地介紹川普的其他政見。同時，也要淡化和分化西裔的敵意。有些人說白種西裔和墨裔是有區別的，我們應該認同這樣的選舉語言，還要做的就是對合法移民，包括合法墨裔，要加以支持。
因為，希拉裏太低劣了，和這樣的對手沒法完全說真話。
所以，這條理由使很多人關注川普，卻無法完全拉攏選民。但是由於他的直率，這一條理由就足以讓他失去很多西裔選民。所以，我們應該更生動地介紹川普的其他政見。同時，也要淡化和分化西裔的敵意。有些人說白種西裔和墨裔是有區別的，我們應該認同這樣的選舉語言，還要做的就是對合法移民，包括合法墨裔，要加以支持。
因為，希拉裏太低劣了，和這樣的對手沒法完全說真話。
我們的分歧在非法移民對美國有利還是不利上，每個人可能看法會不同，也不見得我們都對或都錯了。感謝您分享您的看法。
虎嘯山林 發表評論於 2016-08-24 10:03:05
回複 'rp2002' 的評論 : 還真沒研究過。據我所知，如果一個人有跨族裔血統，一般按主要血統報。但在報考大學或申請職位時，很多人為了沾ＡＡ法案的光，哪怕隻沾上Ｎ分之一的非裔亞裔血統也會給自己安上。
(1): There is an estimated 11.4 million undocumented aliens in the US currently. That is actually down from 12.2 million in 2007.
(see
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/19/5-facts-about-illegal-immigration-in-the-u-s/ )
And, Mexicans are actually leaving the U.S. There has been a net outflow of Mexicans for years.
(see http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/ )
(2): Undocumented aliens pay taxes, too. They pay sales tax if they consume in the US; many of them pay income tax (and social security as well); most will pay property tax, either directly (if they own a home) or indirectly (through rent).
(3): Undocumented aliens are less likely to commit crime than native-born Americans.
(see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/02/surprise-donald-trump-is-wrong-about-immigrants-and-crime/ )
(4): The majority of economists believe that undocumented aliens are beneficial to the economy.
(see http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/magazine/do-illegal-immigrants-actually-hurt-the-us-economy.html?_r=0 )
(5): There is currently a border fence in place between the US and Mexico.
Both Obama and Clinton voted for it (the Secure Fence Act of 2006).
至於奧巴馬遣送非法移民，相信這隻是非法移民的冰山一角。更重要的是，關閉非法移民通道是更有效徹底的解決辦法。Ａｇａｉｎ, Ｉ ｄｏ ｓｕｐｐｏｒｔ ｉｍｍｉｇｒａｔｉｏｎ, ｂｕｔ ｌｅｔ'ｓ ｄｏ ｉｔ ｉｎ ａ ｌｅｇａｌ ａｎｄ ｍａｎａｇｅａｂｌｅ ｗａｙ.
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加拿大的護照俺們大家拿吧。:-) 俺可以驕傲一把，把過期的老護照一交，公民卡一秀，就可以拿新的加拿大護照了。:-) 如果你移民需要reference，俺可以做一個，至少可以證明你在文學城是一個受人歡迎的好公民。:-)
園姐，俺們去加拿大的同一個城市吧，這樣，俺們還可以一起開Party。:-) 俺們興趣好像差不多，俺還可以說，俺不會讓人討厭的。:-)
The minorities are providing a population edge for the US. Otherwise, the US would have been the size of Germany + France + England.
(2): And, the question is not why are the minorities growing so fast. The question is: why are the whites growing so slow?
(3): And, many, many "Hispanics" are considered to be white. The descendants of many Latin American countries find their roots from Spain and Portugal -- generally considered to be white Europeans. Many of them look more "European" than people from Eastern and Southern Europe.
(4): >>>製止非法移民克不容緩，但與民主黨的利益是衝突的。
The Obama administration deported more undocumented aliens than any other president in US history. He is on his way to become the president who deported more than all other presidents combined. (see http://fusion.net/story/252637/obama-has-deported-more-immigrants-than-any-other-president-now-hes-running-up-the-score/ )
Also -- the Obama administration has the most border patrols and border security deployed than any other US president. (see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/01/29/the-2007-immigration-bill-set-border-security-targets-weve-hit-most-of-them/ )
當米國的販毒黑社會和墨西哥的黑社會組織融為一體沆瀣一氣以後，他們的黑手就象在墨西哥一樣，伸向政治，經濟，警察等社會各個中的各行各業，然後，美國的民主、法治自然就不複存在。從克林頓在法律邊緣遊走的電子郵件和基金會等事件，可以一窺美國開始衰敗的早期特征。
如果到了那是，俺還沒有咽氣，俺就和老伴打點行裝，回加拿大。上帝還給俺留了一條後路。:-)