媒體流行一種說法:大選結果取決於兩位被提名者(nominee)的可選性(electability), 指的是選民對於大選 (general election)中候選人的選擇標準. 民意測驗的一個指標是好感度(favourability),媒體經常提到, 目前除了Trump所有選手,特別是無望獲得提名的候選人都喜歡把這個指標當作自己的強項,這裏要說明兩點:
一.對候選人的好感是否等同於投票選擇?有位網友說他個人並不喜歡Trump,但他會給Trump投票,因為隻有他做了其他政客沒有做的事-不被政治正確束縛,引領話題,顯示他是唯一能夠改變現狀的人.可見把”好感”等同投票選擇並不正確.
二.黨內競選還未結束,目前候選人都是在和本黨對手搏鬥,兩黨沒有開始競選,雙方的被提名者都還沒有宣布,一般選民對反對黨候選人的印象基於主流輿論,沒有實戰參考, 而媒體很長時間裏把Trump和歧視,分裂等貶義名詞聯係在一起,大多數選民還沒有機會了解事實並作出成熟的判斷,用不成熟的想法作為選擇標準顯然是不可信的的.所以目前利用民意測驗作出評估或預言,把”可選性”作為候選人未來表現的依據,可謂謬論.
正是這個不成熟不可信的民意測驗被Trump的對手,以及民主黨的候選人利用,被他們當作打敗Trump的證明,一方麵可笑,一方麵更加顯示了Trump在選舉中的主導地位,大選尚未開始,民主黨的競選演講和廣告已對準他,既把他當作威脅也作為政治籌碼.另一方麵共和黨的另兩位候選人麵對黨內得票最多帶來最踴躍支持者的Trump,反對他被提名的理由隻有民意測驗的”可選性”.同時它也是共和黨建製派反對Trump,拒絕讓他unify party,拒絕承認他能夠讓共和黨戰勝民主黨的借口,我說這是借口,是因為一個由人民推選的黨派體係不能也不敢公開他們反對選民決定的真實原因,那就是黨內的精英以及利益集團不願舍棄自己的利益,Trump說的對,他們是一個精英俱樂部,容不得外人進入,除非他們相信這個外人和他們目標相同,比如一度被視為外來者和草根代表的Ted Cruz,(當然競選中發生的一切早已證明Cruz隻是一個無恥的政客,諷刺的是當他被選民拋棄的同時,俱樂部卻挑選了他.)他們更不願讓所有選民分割他們的利益和權力.得到人民支持的Trump不僅是一個外來者,更是唯一揭露選舉舞弊,為選民爭取選舉權利的候選人.(參看附錄文章.)
根據民意測驗,目前所有候選人中,Trump的”可選性”指數是最低的, 特別對於女性和少數族群.多次看到他的競爭對手,或共和黨的精英們在電視節目中受訪,他們無法解釋為什麽Trump為共和黨帶來那麽多新的選民,票數遠遠超過其他候選人,卻仍然反對他當選Republican nominee,他們說不出其他理由,說來說去都是根據民意測驗,他無法在大選中打敗Hilary Clinton, 讓他參選等於是讓共和黨輸掉,等於是選Hilary. 但我說過了,他們最不希望的是讓一個改變規則,清理製度,挑戰權威的外來者進入俱樂部並領導所有成員,他們不敢承認這點,承認他們的擔心害怕就等於承認Trump正是人民需要的重整政府的領導人.我相信如果讓他們在Trump和Clinton之間選擇,他們更願意選Clinton,他們寧可失去白宮,也不願Trump管理國家,重新製定權力規則,因為他們知道他不被利益集團控製,他也不會被任何人控製.他們利用民意測驗聲稱Trump沒有當選的可能,顯示的隻是他們內心的的脆弱和絕望.
媒體對這種說法似乎深信不疑,時常提到那些指數,除此以外媒體最愛談的是Trump的語氣(tone),批評他缺乏總統風範(presidential),最近兩周他競選中的話題主要針對選舉製度,這是深得人心的話題,媒體無可非議,就把注意力放在他的語氣(tone)上,討論他是否會改變形象,他在紐約初選獲勝後的發言裏第一次尊稱對手為”議員””州長”,但第二天在集會上又回到了他給Ted Cruz取的綽號”Lyin’ Ted”,當Cruz和Kasich計劃聯手阻止Trump 的消息傳出後,Trump給Kasich也起了個綽號”1 for 41”(現在已是1 for 46,意思是46個競賽中隻贏了1個),並公開嘲笑Kasich的吃相,徹底推翻了大家對他改變形象的期望.不過媒體也開始用娛樂精神看待他不循規蹈矩的表現了,本來就是嗎,Trump無論到哪裏都有上萬人的集會,受到民眾熱情歡迎和由衷喜愛,正是因為他不同於政客的話語,平常自然的語言,毫無做作的語氣,老百姓雖然沒有專家的學識,但是他們比專家懂得人心,知道什麽言論重要,什麽無傷大雅,知道誰邪惡誰有正義感,知道誰為他們說話 ,誰言不由衷,口蜜腹劍.所以Trump在單槍匹馬,四麵受敵的情況下突破重圍走到現在,而且成功的可能性越來越大,除了靠他自己,就是靠美國人民,靠那些不受輿論左右, 獨立勇敢正直的人民.
Trump的競選之路非常艱險,是所有候選人中走的最艱難的,但他不斷創造奇跡. 直到今天拿下5個州,全部是決定性的勝利,他贏得每個地區,每個群體,從富人到勞動人民,從郊區到都市,他已把其他選手遠遠甩在後麵,就連一直懷疑Trump的媒體專家都認為他應當獲得提名,但是黨內精英仍然拒絕他,用規則(rules)來刁難他,試圖阻止他贏得最後勝利.然而他麵對的處境越是不公平,我們越是看到他的能力和無比勇氣,激勵著更多人支持他.
對無數人來說這個選舉是曆史性的時刻,很多人說:Trump是他們等待了一生的總統人選,這是一生才有一次的投票.也許最令人感動的就在於這是一次真正屬於人民的選舉,人民發出了聲音,他們為一個被體製拒絕和打擊的人投票,堅定地支持他,讓一位不靠利益集團,與體製對抗的的總統候選人完成不可思議的競選路程.
顯然製定遊戲規則的人還沒有意識到人民的力量是多麽強大,這股力量必然支持Trump走向成功,無論反對派(Anti-Trump/Never-Trump)怎麽阻擋,無論還有多少陰謀詭計等待他.就如Trump已打破一個又一個預言,他還會帶來更多捷報,並向質疑他的人證明他比任何政客都有領導能力,他是這個時代最有勇氣打破政治偽裝的人,也是獲得人民真心支持的人.當然了,目前民意測驗的可選性(electability)的預言也將不攻自破.
今天贏得五州,他在勝利發言中說了兩句話.第一句: 打敗體製最好的方式就是像今晚這樣打破記錄,贏得選票和delegates. (The best way to beat the system is to have an evening like this, where you 禾have record votes, you have record delegates.)
第二句: 沒有天花板,天花板就是百分之百的支持率. (There’s no ceiling. The ceiling is 100%.)
預祝Trump繼續創造奇跡!
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下麵記錄了兩周前Trump發表的一篇文章,媒體提到過,但沒有詳細報道,其實這篇文章對選舉權的理念做了非常好的敘述,他的想法正是我的希望,想必也能引起很多人的共鳴.
Let Me Ask America a Question
The Wall Street Journal
By Donald J. Trump
April 14, 2016 7:18 p.m. ET
How has the ‘system’ been working out for you and your family? No wonder voters demand change.
On Saturday, April 9, Colorado had an “election” without voters. Delegates were chosen on behalf of a presidential nominee, yet the people of Colorado were not able to cast their ballots to say which nominee they preferred.
A planned vote had been canceled. And one million Republicans in Colorado were sidelined.
In recent days, something all too predictable has happened: Politicians furiously defended the system. “These are the rules,” we were told over and over again. If the “rules” can be used to block Coloradans from voting on whether they want better trade deals, or stronger borders, or an end to special-interest vote- buying in Congress- well, that’s just the system and we should embrace it.
Let me ask America a question: How has the “system” been working out for you and your family?
I, for one, am not interested in defending a system that for decades has served the interest of political parties at the expense of the people. Members of the club- the consultants, the pollsters, the politicians, the pundits and the special interests- grow rich and powerful while the American people grow poorer and more isolated.
No one forced anyone to cancel the vote in Colorado. Political insiders made a choice to cancel it. And it was the wrong choice.
Responsible leaders should be shocked by the idea that party officials can simply cancel elections in America if they don’t like what the voters may decide.
The only antidote to decades of ruinous rule by a small handful of elites is a bold infusion of popular will. On every major issue affecting this country, the people are right and the governing elite are wrong. The elites are wrong on taxes, on the size of government, on trade, on immigration, on foreign policy.
Why should we trust the people who have made every wrong decision to substitute their will for America’s will in this presidential election?
Here, I part ways with Sen. Ted Cruz.
Mr. Cruz has toured the country bragging about his voterless victory in Colorado. For a man who styles himself as a warrior against the establishment (you wouldn’t know it from his list of donors and endorsers), you’d think he would be demanding a vote for Coloradans. Instead, Mr. Cruz is celebrating their disenfranchisement.
Likewise, Mr. Cruz loudly boasts every time party insiders disenfranchise voters in a congressional district by appointing delegates who will vote the opposite of the expressed will of the people who live in that district.
That’s because Mr. Cruz has no democratic path to the nomination. He has been mathematically eliminated by the voters.
While I am self-funding, Mr. Cruz rakes in millions from special interests. Yet despite his financial advantage, Mr. Cruz has won only three primaries outside his home state and trails me by two million votes – a gap that will soon explode even wider. Mr. Cruz loses when people actually get to cast ballots. Voter disenfranchisement is not merely part of the Cruz strategy – it is the Cruz strategy.
The great irony of this campaign is that the “Washington cartel” that Mr. Cruz rails against is the very group he is relying upon in his voter-nullification scheme.
My campaign strategy is to win with the voters. Ted Cruz’s campaign strategy is to win despite them.
What we are seeing now is not a proper use of the rules, but a flagrant abuse of the rules. Delegates are supposed to reflect the decisions of voters, but the system is being rigged by party operatives with “double-agent” delegates who reject the decision of voters.
The American people can have no faith in such a system. It must be reformed.
Just as I have said that I will reform our unfair trade, immigration and economic policies that have also been rigged against Americans, so too will I work closely with the chairman of the Republican National Committee and top GOP officials to reform our election policies. Together, we will restore the faith- and the franchise- of the American people.
We must leave no doubt that voters, not donors, choose the nominee.
How have we gotten to the point where politicians defend a rigged delegate-selection process with more passion than they have ever defended America’s borders?.
Perhaps it is because politicians care more about securing their private club than about securing their country.
My campaign will, of course, battle for every last delegate. We will work within the system that exists now, while fighting to have it reformed in the future. But we will do it the right way. My campaign will seek maximum transparency, maximum representation and maximum voter participation.
We will run a campaign based on empowering voters, not sidelining them.
Let us take inspiration from patriotic Colorado citizens who have banded together in protest. Let us make Colorado a rallying cry on behalf of all the forgotten people hose desperate pleas have for decades fallen on the deaf ears and closed eyes of our rulers in Washington, D.C.
The political insiders have had their way for a long time. Let 2016 be remembered as the year the American people finally got theirs.
Mr. Trump is a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.
