股市小書生
價值投資
TD 公司網站的投資者信息中有計算股票投資回報的工具。
2013 - 2019 127.52%
2007 - 2013 45.04%
2001 - 2007 120.78%
1995 - 2001 333.01%
1989 - 1995 26.84%
1983 - 1989 204.10%
1977 - 1983 282.94%
每年的7月10日價格計算
上麵的時間是從寫帖子的今天算起，所以是個隨機結果，不是刻意挑選的。2007-2013投資回報較低，原因大家都知道，這裏想提一下2013.7.10-2014.7.10的投資回報是35.87%，是均值的2.5倍。1989-1995加國多倫多的房價下跌了50%，之前六年股價漲了二倍，之後六年股價漲了三倍。2001，1995，1983是股市低位期，2007，1989是股市的高位期。1996年是上次房價危機的最低時期，以此為起點考慮TD長期回報並不合適。
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch
"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.
Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.
I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.
It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?" - 芒格
上麵的階段投資回報表現吻合了芒格的觀點，Good tides的收益會抵消Bad tides的負麵影響，TD的情況是Good tides的收益是Bad tides的十倍以上。
The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.
But, unlike the lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. - 巴菲特
市場長期毫無疑問是上漲的，所以隻要是不太離譜，多少總能掙點，長期投資虧損的概率是極低的，理論上因該100%是不會虧損的。
網友投資TD的整個過程對Timing沒有特別要求，即使是在股市最高，最糟糕的時刻開始，結果相差也不大，因為前二年的Bad tides之後就是8年的Good tides，其中還會有二年超高回報的Good tides可以完全彌補甚至大大超過前二年Bad tides的負麵影響。
Leverage是值得認真思考的一個重要方麵，因為一倍的金融杠杆可以將一個普通的藍籌股投資回報提升到世界一流，這也是巴菲特投資的一個特點。在考慮金融杠杆風險的時候，我們不妨參考一下大千，那裏基本上沒有人會在美國CCC List中的股票上使用金融杠杆，而且絕大多數人的杠杆倍數都遠超1倍。在美國市場中，隻需要一倍杠杆就可以將一個普通藍籌股的投資回報水平提升到世界一流的水準，這是巴菲特幹了一輩子的事。
In response to a question about Japan, Buffett mentions how most Japanese businesses produce low returns on equity, and how time works against you when you own low return businesses:
“Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. They have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, or 6% returns on equity. It’s very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you’re in doesn’t earn very much money.”
Would that apply to all other equity market? Like Japan?