在市場處於曆史新高時的投資思考。

在市場處於曆史新高時期，因為實際的股票買賣操作幾乎沒有，所以能夠有更多的時間思考自己的投資策略，為未來的投資做好準備。

At Berkshire we focus almost exclusively on the valuations of individual companies, looking only to a very limited extent at the valuation of the overall market. Even then, valuing the market has nothing to do with where it's going to go next week or next month or next year, a line of thought we never get into. The fact is that markets behave in ways, sometimes for a very long stretch, that are not linked to value. Sooner or later, though, value counts. - 巴菲特1999年公開演講

“If you’re an investor, you’re looking on what the asset is going to do;if you’re a speculator,
you’re commonly focusing on what the price of the object is going to do, and that’s not our game.”  - Warren Buffett

既然參與市場，就是市場的一部分，當然或多或少會受到市場波動的影響，但是做為主動型集中模式的個股投資者，市場波動對投資的關聯度並不大。如果接受市場短期不可精確預測，而且也不是投資的必要前提，那麽整體市場的高低就不是思考的重點，也不是投資決策的重要因素。

無論整體市場處於高位還是低位，始終如一的遵守投資的基本原則和自己選擇的長期投資策略。

The market is there to serve you, not to inform you.
 

最後但最重要的，同時也是最少見的一項特質：在投資過程中，大起大落之中卻絲毫不改投資思路的能力。這對於大多數人而言幾乎是不可能做到的。當股票開始下跌，人們很難堅持承受損失而不拋出股票。市場整體下降時，人們很難決定買進更多股票以使成本攤薄，甚至很難決定將錢再投入股票中。人們不喜歡承受暫時性的痛苦，即便從長遠來看會有更好的收益。很少有投資家能應對高回報率所必須經曆的短期波動。他們將短期波動等同於風險。這是極不理性的。風險意味著你若押錯了寶，就得賠錢。而相對短時期內的上下波動並不等於損失，因此也不是風險，除非你在市場跌到穀底時陷入恐慌，被損失嚇得大亂陣腳。但是多數人不會以這種方式看問題，他們的大腦不容許他們這麽想。恐慌本能會入侵，然後切斷正常思考的能力。- 馬克·塞勒爾哈佛演講

 

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken,
you should not be in the stock market.”  - 巴菲特

老巴根據自己幾十年的投資經驗，告誡大家要有麵對50%Down的心理準備。股市短期價格波動，受投資者情緒影響很大，所以大幅度的價格波動在股市中是一件極其平常的事。

"The very liquidity of stock markets causes people to focus on price action. If you buy an apartment house, if you buy a farm, if you buy a McDonald's franchise you don't think about what it's going sell for tomorrow or next week, or next month, you think about how is this business going to do. But stocks with this huge liquidity suck people in and they turn what should be an advantage into a disadvantage."  - 芒格 
 

 
 

個股與整體市場波動的對比， 基本上一個投資者一生經曆的最大級別的市場波動都比不上個股年均50%以上的波動。這也說明了整體市場的波動對個股的影響有限。

 個股的市場波動為投資者提供了非常充裕的投資機會，年年都有，不像熊市的波動要許多年才有一次。

 

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

 

 

個股投資者每年都可以有較大的概率找到合適的投資機會，即使是在股市處於高位時期。我覺得這一點比較重要，這說明無論我是在哪一個年代開始投資， 我都可以在短期內（1年）尋找到合適的投資機會。

假設我的投資組合有12個股票，那麽在2018年平均每一個月我都有可能遇到一次合適的投資機會（50%的波動幅度），這樣的投資機會就發生在我非常熟悉的投資標的之中。我不可能成功抓住每次的機會，但是一年一二次還是有可能的。

 

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.

So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.   芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING

一個投資者並不需要頻繁的成功投資交易，才能取得滿意投資回報。

“真正的大機會，把握住一次足以改變境遇；把握住兩次將開啟全新的人生；把握住三次整個家族都會不同。“ - 水晶蒼蠅拍

2016年成功重倉DRG一次，可以獲得相當於一個普通加國工薪家庭收入的現金流，這個投資成果可以享受許多年。 

在2016年初的股市低位之後，下半年加國市場的一，二線的藍籌股中出現大幅度漲幅的有

MFC， SLF，POW， DRG， AX。。。。。。

2017年同樣的

BMO， CM， REI-un。。。。。

這些都是加國市場上大家最熟悉的藍籌股。

我想信在2018年，在這些加國市場上大家最熟悉的藍籌股中，一定會出現與2016，2017類似的投資機會。

對投資者而言，無論市場在何種狀態，投資機會永遠存在 。