再談談50%down和50%up 一

在這裏50%指的是股市或股價的大幅度波動，大幅度可以是30%，60%，當然也可以是50%。
 

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”
- 巴菲特

In October of 2009, Charlie Munger was interviewed on the BBC.

Here's what he had to say about Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKa) stock (it was down quite a bit at the time) and, more generally, the decline in common stocks.

So how much does Charlie worry when Berkshire's common stock declines?

"Zero. This is the third time that Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathaway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it's in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, in worldly outcomes, and in markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact, you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations."

In this BBC interview with Warren Buffett, also from back in 2009, here's what he had to say

about the nature of stock markets.

"The very liquidity of stock markets causes people to focus on price action. If you buy an apartment house, if you buy a farm, if you buy a McDonald's franchise you don't think about what it's going sell for tomorrow or next week, or next month, you think about how is this business going to do. But stocks with this huge liquidity suck people in and they turn what should be an advantage into a disadvantage."

Then, later in the interview, Buffett said this about investment: 

"...you compare the net return to how much money you are laying out, that's investment." 

Finally, he added this:

"...you can still get in trouble if you pay too much, but you are focusing on the right thing if you look at the stream of income that the asset is going to produce over time."

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
 

一直以來我都使用TD這個投資實例來談論我個人對投資的理解。這裏TD是一個討論中的舉例。如果有人認為我的目的就是為了推薦TD， 我個人認為這樣的人非常愚蠢，也不需要閱讀我的貼子。 (how many times do I have to repeat this point lol) 我借用一下不迷糊的話

我直接從前一個帖子拷貝了上麵一段話。

參照老巴和芒格的投資經驗， 作為一名TD的股東， 我有100%的機率會遇到大幅度的股價波動，比如50%或更大，所以如何應對股價的大幅度波動是不可避免的事。

首先，在我的“對未來一段時間市場波動的應對思考”的貼子中的ABC預備方案的目標都是以低於市場正常價格50%建立倉位。

為什麽我所有的預報方案的追求目標都是以低於市場正常價格50%建立倉位？我的目的是什麽？

 

芒格的話說明了市場中的非理性波動的根源，我們知道在市場中有相當數量的把股票當彩票的投機者，也有相當數量的資金主動或被動的追求超短期和短期效益，所以市場真正能出現理性波動機會幾乎沒有。

 I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient. - 巴菲特

為什麽在TD的能源行業的貸款業務隻占總量的1%的時候，股價的波動卻要大出非常多？
為什麽DRG--UN與能源行業毫不相幹，業務也不再加國，股價確要與加國股市一起大幅下跌？
為什麽JPM　CEO 在2016年買入自家股票後，股票短期大漲50%以上？我曾經３次轉貼過KK對JPM的分析文章
。。。。。。
這些公司的經營變化幅度一年之內都能達到50%？

 

Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida

“We never buy a stock with a price target in mind. We never buy something at 30 and say ‘if it goes to 40 we’ll sell it.’… That’s just not the right way to look at a business.”

Buffett obviously does buy and sell stocks—and did much more of that in his early years—but the concept is to focus on stocks not as trading vehicles with price targets, but as businesses that produce cash flow for owners. Mr. Market will always be there offering prices that can be taken advantage of, but the mindset should be firmly focused on the fundamentals of the business and its future earning power, not on where the stock will go or when it will get there.

在談論50%down之前，我們更應該談談50%up，因為這個問題更實際。

就TD而言，50%down是將來的事，而50%up是今天的事，過去幾年接受我的投資觀點而買入TD的人，現在有30 -100%的帳麵利潤，現在大家都在看衰加國，看衰加國銀行， 而在剛剛發布季報中， TD的盈利創曆史新高， 紅利創曆史新高，各項業務全麵增長，美國業務更是以18%的增長表現最優。

麵對這樣的情況你打算怎麽辦？