對長期投資的一些思考 - 十一

今天加國的BNS銀行在公布季報時，宣布增加每股季度紅利2分，正常節奏，ＢＮＳ是每六個月增加一次紅利。在過去二十年，加國的前三大銀行ＲＹ，ＴＤ，ＢＮＳ的紅利大致都上漲了１０倍左右。

　　　　　１９９６　　　　　２０１６

ＲＹ　　　０．０７７５　－　０．８３

ＴＤ　　　０．０６２５　－　０．５５

ＢＮＳ　　０．０７７５　－　０．７４

多輪多房價指數　（１９９８，７）６８．３６，　（２０１６，７）１９９．２２

Average and Median Total Family Income by Province, 1996

Ontario

Average 62,614

Median 54,958

目前加國安省多輪多地區家庭收入中位數是８００００左右。

總的情況是，薪水漲幅趕不上房價漲幅，房價漲幅趕不上資本漲幅。

二十年前的1996年是上一次加國房地產危機的高峰時期，之後用了差不多10年時間恢複。

During the peak of the bubble the borrowing cost started increasing and the 5 year fixed mortgage reached 12.7%. Coupled with the early 90s recession, a spike in unemployment and a drop in the inflow of immigrants to the area, housing prices in the GTA collapsed. Between 1989 and 1996 average price of a house in GTA have declined by 40% adjusted for inflation or $182,625 in today's money. Downtown of Toronto was hit the worst with over 50% decline in value of a home.

今後二十年，資本紅利，薪水，房價的變化會不會重複過去二十年的曆史呢？這是個值得思考的問題。

To be or not to be-that is the question.