以印度為鏡：看他阿三起高樓，看他阿三樓塌了（有圖有真相）

印度股市和盧比的匯率受美國利率影響劇烈。我們拿印度作為可能發生的危機風向標，來解讀QE tapering、國債走勢、攻敘影響。隔夜印度股市大跌超過3％。繼印度央行上周出台新措施抬高盧比匯率，現在盧比再次跌到68大關。

貼兩個圖，和一篇8月16日的舊聞。當時印度股市比今天高，盧比匯率還在當時的曆史新低62。唐太宗雲：以史為鏡。我們要以印度為鏡，觀察即將來臨的風暴。

India's Economic Misery Rises As Stock Market, Rupee Plunge

Indian markets went into a free fall Friday in what is being described as a ‘bloodbath’ by the local press. The benchmark Sensex, after rising for three consecutive days went into a downward spiral when the stock market reopened after Thursday’s Independence day national holiday. It lost 769 points or close to 4%, its biggest loss since 2011, ending at 18,598. According to estimates, investors lost a combined $32 billion in one day.

The mayhem was sparked by concerns over the US Federal Reserve rolling back its stimulus program and a weakening rupee which plunged to a new low of rupees 62 per dollar. The currency took a hit despite measures by the Reserve Bank of India to cap outflows. The central bank cut back annual remittances to $75,000 per person from $200, 000 that was allowed earlier and imposed restrictions on residents from buying property overseas.

Fresh curbs on gold imports were imposed by way of hiking the import duty to 10% and banning the import of gold coins, amid news that the country’s demand for gold in the last quarter ended June had risen 71%. Gold prices soared Friday as a result.

Prime minister Manmohan Singh expressed confidence in economic growth reviving in what was probably his last Independence Day address to the nation- national elections are due next year-an assurance that left investors cold. The recent appointment of respected economist Raghuram Rajan as the central bank’s governor seems to have done nothing significant so far to allay investor jitters either.

In a recent report, Nomura economist Sonal Varma stated that India’s economic ‘misery index’ seems to have reached a high with rising consumer price inflation and negative industrial growth. This calls for tougher economic policies:” Unfortunately, we see no short cuts”, said Varma.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/naazneenkarmali/2013/08/16/indias-economic-misery-rises-as-stock-market-rupee-plunge/