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查理.芒格的4 個檢查清單

(2018-08-26 18:16:31) 下一個

These are his indispensible tools for __decision making and problem solving_

The Two-track Analysis (Pages 63,64)

  • What are the factors that really govern the interests involved, reationally considered? (e.g., macro and micro-level economic factors).
  • What are the subconscious influences, where the brain at a subconscious level is automatically forming conclusions? (influences from instincts, emotions, cravings, and so on).

Investing and Decision Making (Pages 64-76)

Charlie's informal., but extensive, list of factors worthy of consideration:

http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/60957/201807/4724.html

Ultra-simple, General Problem-Solving Notions (Pages 279-281)

  • Decide the big "no-brainer" questions first.
  • Apply numerical fluency (use numerical analysis to support your points).
  • Invert (think the problem through in reverse).
  • Apply elementary multidisciplinary wisdom, never relying entirely on others.
  • Watch for combinations of factors --- the Lollapalooza effect.

Psychology-Based Tendencies (Pages 440-498)

  • The 25 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgement (中英文對照):
    • 一、獎勵和懲罰 超級反應傾向
      二、喜歡/熱愛傾向
      三、討厭/憎恨傾向
      四、避免懷疑傾向
      五、避免不一致性傾向
      六、好奇心傾向
      七、康德式公平傾向
      八、豔羨/妒忌傾向
      九、回饋傾向
      十、受簡單聯想影響的傾向
      十一、簡單的、避免痛苦的心理否認
      十二、自視過高的傾向
      十三、過度樂觀傾向
      十四、被剝奪超級反應傾向
      十五、社會認同傾向
      十六、對比錯誤反應傾向
      十七、壓力影響傾向
      十八、錯誤衡量易得性傾向
      十九、不用就忘傾向
      二十、化學物質錯誤影響傾向
      二十一、衰老—錯誤影響傾向
      二十二、權威—錯誤影響傾向
      二十三、廢話傾向
      二十四、重視理由傾向
      二十五、lollapalooza 傾向——數種心理傾
      向共同作用造成極端後果的傾向
    • (以下的1-25 順序應該反過來。這爛編輯軟件!)
    1. Lollapalooza Tendency --- The Tendency to Get Extreme Consequences from Confluences of Psychological Tendencies Acting in Favor of a Particular Outcome
    2. Reason-Respecting Tendency
    3. Twaddle Tendency
    4. Authority-Misinfluence Tendency
    5. Senescene-Misinfluence Tendency
    6. Drug-Misinfluence Tendency
    7. Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency
    8. Availability-Misweighing Tendency
    9. Stress-Influence Tendency
    10. Contrast-Misreaction Tendency
    11. Social-Proof Tendency
    12. Deprival-Superreaction Tendency
    13. Overoptimism Tendency
    14. Execessive Self-Regard Tendency
    15. Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial
    16. Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency
    17. Reciprocation Tendency
    18. Envy/Jeasousy Tendency
    19. Kantian Fairness Tendency
    20. Curiosity Tendency
    21. Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency
    22. Doubt-Avoidance Tendency
    23. Disliking/Hating Tendency
    24. Liking/Loving Tendency
    25. Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency

 

 

Note:

From the book , Expanded 3rd Edition

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