查理芒格：投資原則檢查清單

風險——所有投資評估應該從測量風險(尤其是信用的風險)開始

• 測算合適的安全邊際
• 避免和道德品質有問題的人交易
• 堅持為預定的風險要求合適的補償
• 永遠記住通貨膨脹和利率的風險
• 避免犯下大錯;避免資本金持續虧損

獨立——“惟有在童話中,皇帝才會被告知自己沒穿衣服”

• 客觀和理性的態度需要獨立思考
• 記住,你是對是錯,並不取決於別人同意你還是反對你——惟一重要的是你的分析和判斷是否正確
• 隨大流隻會讓你往平均值靠近(隻能獲得中等的業績)
 

準備——“惟一的獲勝方法是工作、工作、工作、工作,並希望擁有一點洞察力。”

• 通過廣泛的閱讀把自己培養成一個終生自學者;培養好奇心,每天努力使自己聰明一點點
• 比求勝的意願更重要的是做好準備的意願
• 熟練地掌握各大學科的思維模型
• 如果你想要變得聰明,你必須不停地追問的問題是“為什麽,為什麽,為什麽”
 

謙虛——承認自己的無知是智慧的開端

• 隻在自己明確界定的能力圈內行事
• 辨認和核查否定性的證據
• 抵製追求虛假的精確和錯誤的確定性的欲望
• 最重要的是,別愚弄你自己,而且要記住,你是最容易被自己愚弄的人

 

嚴格分析——使用科學方法和有效的檢查清單能夠最大限度地減少錯誤和疏忽

• 區分價值和價格、過程和行動、財富和規模
• 記住淺顯的好過掌握深奧的
• 成為一名商業分析家,而不是市場、宏觀經濟或者證券分析家
• 考慮總體的風險和效益,永遠關注潛在的二階效應和更高層次的影響
• 要朝前想、往後想——反過來想,總是反過來想

 

耐心——克製人類天生愛行動的偏好

 

• “複利是世界第八大奇跡”(愛因斯坦),不到必要的時候,別去打斷它
• 避免多餘的交易稅和摩擦成本,永遠別為了行動而行動
• 幸運來臨時要保持頭腦清醒
• 享受結果,也享受過程,因為你活在過程當中

決心——當合適的時機出現時,要堅決地采取行動

• 當別人貪婪時,要害怕;當別人害怕時,要貪婪
• 機會來臨的次數不多,所以當它來臨時,抓住它
• 機會隻眷顧有準備的人:投資就是這樣的遊戲

改變——在生活中要學會改變和接受無法消除的複雜性

• 認識和適應你身邊的世界的真實本質,別指望它來適應你
• 不斷地挑戰和主動地修正你“最愛的觀念”
• 正視現實,即使你並不喜歡它——尤其當你不喜歡它的時候

專注——別把事情搞複雜,記住你原來要做的事

• 記住,聲譽和正直是你最有價值的財產——而且能夠在瞬間化為烏有
• 避免妄自尊大和厭倦無聊的情緒
• 別因為過度關心細節而忽略了顯而易見的東西
• 千萬要排除不需要的信息:“千裏之堤,潰於蟻穴”
• 直麵你的大問題,別把它們藏起來

 

 

自從人類開始投資以來,他們就一直在尋找能夠快速致
富的神奇公式或者捷徑。正如你已經看到的,查理的優異業績並非來自一
道神奇公式或者某些商學院教導的體係,它來自查理所說的“對不停地尋找
更好的思維方式的追求”；通過一絲不苟的準備進行“預付”的意願；以
及他跨學科研究模式的非凡成果。總而言之,它來自查理最基本的行為守
則,最根本的人生哲學:準備、紀律、耐心、決心。每個因素都是互不相
幹的,但它們加起來就變成了威力強大的臨界質量(critical mass)能夠催化那種因芒格
而聞名的 lollapalooza 效應。

最後，喜歡讀英文原文的網友，請看下麵：

Risk – All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational

• Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety
• Avoid dealing with people of questionable character
• Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed
• Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures
• Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss

Independence – “Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked”

• Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought
• Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn’t make you right or wrong – the only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment
• Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance)

Preparation – “The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights”

• Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day
• More important than the will to win is the will to prepare
• Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines
• If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is “why, why, why?”

Intellectual humility – Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom

• Stay within a well-defined circle of competence
• Identify and reconcile disconfirming evidence
• Resist the craving for false precision, false certainties, etc.
• Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool

Analytic rigor – Use of the scientific method and effective checklists minimizes errors and omissions

• Determine value apart from price; progress apart from activity; wealth apart from size
• It is better to remember the obvious than to grasp the esoteric
• Be a business analyst, not a market, macroeconomic, or security analyst
• Consider totality of risk and effect; look always at potential second order and higher level impacts
• Think forwards and backwards – Invert, always invert

Allocation – Proper allocation of capital is an investor’s number one job

• Remember that highest and best use is always measured by the next best use (opportunity cost)
• Good ideas are rare – when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet (allocate) heavily
• Don’t “fall in love” with an investment – be situation-dependent and opportunity-driven

Patience – Resist the natural human bias to act

• “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world” (Einstein); never interrupt it unnecessarily
• Avoid unnecessary transactional taxes and frictional costs; never take action for its own sake
• Be alert for the arrival of luck
• Enjoy the process along with the proceeds, because the process is where you live

Decisiveness – When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction

• Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
• Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it comes
• Opportunity meeting the prepared mind; that’s the game

Change – Live with change and accept unremovable complexity

• Recognize and adapt to the true nature of the world around you; don’t expect it to adapt to you
• Continually challenge and willingly amend your “best-loved ideas”
• Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it

Focus – Keep things simple and remember what you set out to do

• Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assets – and can be lost in a heartbeat
• Guard against the effects of hubris(妄自尊大) and boredom
• Don’t overlook the obvious by drowning in minutiae
• Be careful to exclude unneeded information or slop(汙水): “A small leak can sink a great ship”
• Face your big troubles; don’t sweep them under the rug