土耳其、紅旗-9、西方法治、美國試驗反導

土耳其、紅旗-9、西方法治、美國試驗反導

說實在的，還是老話，我本來不想寫這個土耳其買紅旗-9的，本來嘛，這麽簡單的事情，又有什麽好說的呢？

可是我已經寫了一個帖子了，叫《土耳其買紅旗-9和不戰而屈人之兵》，有興趣的網友點擊進去浪費時間吧。

而且，我在我的《土耳其買紅旗-9和不戰而屈人之兵》裏一開始就說了：

“我先把幾句簡單的話說了，一句是技術和秘密不是我們老百姓考慮的問題，有專家呢；另一句是價錢也不是問題，不是因為老中現在有錢，任何企業開張的頭幾筆生意價錢也都不是問題，特別是軍火買賣還沒電視廣告也不雇大腕明星代言的開銷呢。”

唉，誰讓我看不上別人的評論呢，我沒給自己把住門兒，說了青衫老祖的《中國決定出口紅旗9釋放什麽信號？》這些都是明擺著滴，膚淺了

結果呢，被人家抓住了，說我“那有空請談點更深刻的”，我自作自受，沒辦法，我與人為善吧，不以為你這是冷言冷語諷刺挖苦，就犧牲一些鍛煉身體的時間

我還是接著我的《土耳其買紅旗-9和不戰而屈人之兵》說，簡單的說就是軍火買賣不是一般的買賣，東西好壞隻是個借口，軍火買賣的實質是交保護費，你買美國的武器，哪怕美國隻是給你一些空殼子，你也是安全的，因為你有了美國的東西就基本上保證沒人會甚至敢打你了，所以，你家裏擺著的那些“愛國者3”差不多就是個護身符。

從綜合實力來說，今天的美國雖然今非昔比也依然是老大，比喻一下就是個教父，有教父簽字的護身符就是沒人敢揭，就這麽簡單。

所以，土耳其打算買紅旗-9其實是不打算給老大交保護費了，至少也是保護費交少了，不隻是土耳其跟北約和美國矛盾公開的問題那麽簡單。

因為不給老大交保護費就沒有老大的保護了，雖然不是黑白分明這麽簡單，但是，你家裏貼的有教父簽字的護身符少一張，你的問題就會多一些，如果說本來就有矛盾的話，而且現在公開了，那就是原來的矛盾的激烈程度會激化，而且還會產生新的矛盾。

老中有句話叫“不當家不知柴米貴”，跟老大鬧別扭，老大就可能不會幫你擺平一些問題了，不僅會產生新的矛盾，老大本人就可能給你麻煩，比如說穿個小鞋什麽的。

因此，你不給這個教父交保護費了，你就得有一個新的教父去交保護費，否則你就是喪家之犬了，想想被“逐出山門”的處境，而且“北約”是軍事安全聯盟，一不小心就是反目成仇，軍事安全聯盟可不是過家家好聚好散那麽簡單滴。

這就是我在我的《土耳其買紅旗-9和不戰而屈人之兵》最後說的：

可是，畢竟軍火買賣不是一般的買賣，不是誰的好就買誰的那麽簡單，因為軍火買賣有交保護費的性質，特別是對小國來說。

那麽，究竟是紅旗-9的表現給了土耳其安全感呢？

僅僅一套或幾套紅旗-9顯然是遠遠不夠滴。

還是紅旗-9後麵的中國給了土耳其安全感呢？

大家拭目以待吧，嘿嘿！

好了，我的意思就是說中國可能是世界這個森林法則裏的可以保護跟教父翻了臉的孩子的家，也可能是地球這個藍色星球上的防海盜的一個避風港。

這就是中國必須以英美為目標的原因，印度以中國為目標跟美國友好永遠沒有出頭之日。

超英趕美，大躍進萬歲！

抽象的就說這麽些，現在說具體的，也就是技術，紅旗-9是防空武器。

好比你是個足球守門員，如果那些一流超級球星都在你的隊裏，你就不必防他們了，對吧？

國家守門也是一個道理，因此，基本上可以肯定的說，如果土耳其買了美國的愛國者3或歐洲的神馬玩意兒，甚至包括俄國的神馬玩意兒，那土耳其就不必擔心F-16了，因為有F-16的國家，隻要美國一句話就差不多可以保證土耳其的安全，當然了，前提是土耳其給美國交保護費。

所以，現在，土耳其打算買紅旗-9，土耳其第一個要考慮的問題就是紅旗-9是否可以麵對F-16，因為這個世界上的F-16還是挺多滴啊！

因為紅旗-9是防空武器，這就好比足球隊決定雇傭那個守門員，那是要看將來可能麵臨的對手滴，紅旗-9如果對付不了F-16的話，當然還包括跟F-16類 似的東西，大家想一想，因為土耳其買紅旗-9必然同時得罪美國和北約，如果紅旗-9對付不了F-16的話，那麽，土耳其買紅旗-9還有什麽意義呢？

軍火買賣，錢當然重要，實在還是安全第一，如果買某種武器得罪人產生新問題的話，那麽這些新問題就應該是可以解決的，或至少也是不必擔心影響安全的，花100塊，安全了就值，花99塊，不安全等於零99塊打水漂，花1塊，不安全也是白花。

小鬼子應該也不傻吧？

謝謝土耳其兄弟！！！

讓丫挺的再說一遍打中國巡航釣魚島的無人機？

就鬼子知道武器好能欺負人啊？

啥叫不戰而屈人之兵？

這就叫不戰而屈人之兵。

現在說幾句西方法治，白人的孩子們搞了幾個對中國的限製，號稱不許賣中國武器，還是沒說不許買中國武器，看來他們還真以為老中喊的“超英趕美”口號是鬧著玩兒的哪。

兵不厭詐啊！

有趣的是中國出口紅酒的公司也是有老美法製限製的公司，可是隻是限製賣東西給這個公司，不限製買，嘿嘿。

當然了，我再說一遍，從綜合實力來說，今天的美國雖然今非昔比也依然是老大！！！

但是，在導彈防空和反導這方麵還真說不定哪。

老大有老大的好處，因為老大有天下最鋒利的矛，而且老大的天下最鋒利的矛紮的都是天下很不堅固的盾。

我前幾天回網友的《說心理效果已達成更好一點，又不能直接交火，第三方檢驗武器就相當於比武》裏已經說過了：

“土雞要麻煩了是明擺著滴，論不論都是一樣

土鱉不僅不會有麻煩，而且麻煩隻會減少，因為土鱉的武器水平顯然超出老美的判斷了

假設老美了解紅酒的水平，假設老美的水平高於紅酒的水平，老美就應該拿出跟紅酒水平接近的東西讓土雞試驗，對吧？

老美也應該很容易做到這一點，因為假設老美了解紅酒的水平和老美的水平高於紅酒的水平，對吧？

由於土雞試驗的結果顯然不如老美的意，因此，上麵的假設至少有一條不成立，對吧？

那麽，咱替土鱉謙虛一點，承認老美的水平高於紅酒的水平，甚至承認老美的水平高於土鱉的水平，也就是說老美不了解紅酒的水平。

老美不知彼啊，對吧？

其實呢，不知彼是跟不知己聯係在一起的，特別是武器技術方麵，因為不知彼就不知道自己的武器能不能搞定對手，因此就會影響信心，拿不準自己是否有足夠的能力搞定對手，對吧？

所以，土鱉不僅不會有麻煩，而且麻煩隻會減少，至少在短時期內是這樣滴，對吧？

有人嫌我說車軲轆話羅嗦，可是為了把話說說清楚的目的，多說一點也不浪費，嘿嘿”

對此，我在我的《這事不是非黑即白的，根本永遠都是知己知彼》裏有詳細的解釋。

所以，當我看到網友轉貼的《美國再次完成反導試驗 成功攔載1枚中程導彈》裏麵提到這次試驗“接近實戰”，我就說了“敗給紅酒，接近實戰就是意.淫時看3D片兒，找麵子壯壯膽而已，老美反導試驗成功一概不可信”。

老美有一次反導，煞有介事的用潛艇發射，打一個間諜衛星，間諜衛星都有自毀係統，有木有？

而且間諜衛星的自毀係統是非常非常非常可靠滴，啟動自毀係統就成功了，嘿嘿，老美的矛很牛，是天下第一，反正我就是不信老美的盾，誰宣傳我也不信，這麽宣傳我也不信，反正愛國者打薩達姆的導彈不算，以色列的添窮打黎巴嫩的火箭也不算。

也許老美自己手裏的“愛國者3”是真的，反正鬼子手裏的“愛國者3”是真的扯淡，鬼子號稱要攔北朝鮮的導彈說了多少次了，真他媽的不要臉，包括老美，中國 地球上如果攔截導彈最沒風險最沒後果的恐怕就是北朝鮮了，再說北朝鮮的導彈也不是什麽先進技術，“愛國者3”是騾子是馬拉出來遛遛。

導彈打飛機本來就是老中的首創，用的是蘇聯的導彈，蘇聯都不認為他們的導彈能打U-2，老中不僅首創導彈打灰機，而且打的還是老美的灰機哪！

一句話，老中防空就是打老美的灰機長大的，吃的就是打老美的灰機這碗飯。

記得反導還是毛主席跟他的親家孔從洲將軍提的，毛主席對他說“有矛就有盾”，大家想想看，那是多少年前的事情了。

最後，請大家看一篇路透社的報道文章，因為裏麵有兩段很有趣，我最後評論一下這兩段，其實我已經評論過了，這就是我不想寫這個帖子的原因，不僅基本上都是常識，而且基本上我都說過了。

我把這篇路透社的報道文章全文拷在這裏，大家可看可不看，我隻是給有興趣的網友方便，也給我自己留個紀念。

這篇路透社的報道文章全文：

鏈接：http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/03/us-turkey-china-defence-idUSBRE99205L20131003

Turkey 'highly likely' to sign Chinese missile deal

(Reuters) - Turkey is likely to sign a $3.4 billion missile defense deal with a Chinese firm under U.S. sanctions, a senior official said on Thursday, a proposal that is already straining relations with Washington.

Turkey sees a growing threat of spillover from the war in neighboring Syria, as well as wider turbulence in the Middle East, and has been scrambling to bolster its air defenses.

Murad Bayar, Undersecretary of Defence Industries at the Defence Ministry, told reporters in Ankara that Turkey could finalize the deal with China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corp (CPMIEC) within six months.

Turkey's Defence Ministry said last week it had chosen CPMIEC's FD-2000 missile defense system over more expensive rival systems from Russian, U.S. and European firms. Despite Bayar's comments, Turkish leaders have stressed the deal is not final.

The United States has expressed "serious concerns" over North Atlantic Treaty Organisation member Turkey cooperating with CPMIEC, under sanctions for violations of the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act.

But Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Turkey, which shares a 900-km (560-mile) border with Syria and has NATO's second largest deployable military force, urgently needed to step up its air defenses.

"With the latest crisis in Syria and the crises in the Middle East, we have realized ... that however strong our armed forces are in terms of conventional weapons, they are not at the desired level to counter missile and related threats," he said in an interview on local television on Wednesday.

Turkey has seen Syria's conflict frequently spill across its frontier and has responded in kind when mortars and shells fired from Syria have hit its soil.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS

The government is also concerned about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons arsenal, particularly after a sarin nerve gas attack on a Damascus suburb in August, and parliament voted on Thursday to extend a mandate authorizing sending troops into Syria if needed.

NATO sources have said Turkish collaboration with China on the system could raise questions of compatibility of weaponry and of security. For China, it would be a breakthrough in its bid to become a supplier of advanced weapons.

Bayar said Turkey was not sharing any information on NATO defense systems with China and Turkey was not bound to comply with sanctions placed on CPMIEC as they were not drawn up by the United Nations.

"This is a short list and China is in first place. We are going to invite the Chinese, the offer is on the table and we are going to turn this offer into a contract," Bayar said.

"It is highly likely, a great probability, we will sign the contract with the firm we have chosen in first place."

He said if the deal went ahead most of the production would be carried out in Turkey.

CPMIEC's bid of $3.44 billion had come in significantly lower than rival systems from Russian, U.S. and European firms and below Turkey's estimate of $4 billion, Bayar said.

He said the Franco/Italian Eurosam SAMP/T system was second and Raytheon Co, a U.S. company that builds the Patriot missile, was third. A Russian bid had been eliminated. All losing bids had come in above $4 billion, Bayar said.

Davutoglu said the selection was not politically motivated, and that the Chinese offer had met Turkey's primary demands of price and the ability to place much of the production in Turkey, although he reiterated that the decision was not final.

NOT FINAL

"It is as if people always think, 'this government has an agenda and is making its choice based on this'. No, this was a professional choice. A choice determined by the criteria put forward. But this is not a final choice," Davutoglu said.

"If only Eurosam, or the American and European system makers offered better conditions and we could choose them," he said.

Some defense analysts said they were surprised by Turkey's decision, having expected Raytheon or Eurosam to win the contract, and U.S. government and industry officials were reportedly not informed of the selection beforehand.

"The deal with the Chinese may be designed to put pressure on Raytheon to negotiate a more favorable deal for Turkey, in particular a more liberal technology and know-how transfer and co-production and perhaps on price," said Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert at London's Chatham House think tank.

Industry experts have said they do not expect Raytheon to offer significant price concessions to secure the deal, given its big backlog of orders from other countries for the Patriot system and other missile defense equipment.

"Turkey's primary aim is to build a local defense manufacturing capacity," Hakura said, noting Turkey had been trying to build a domestic defense industry since the 1980s.

"Still, what the deal does is further poison the atmosphere of worsening relations between Washington and Ankara."

Turkey has long been one of the closest U.S. allies in the Middle Eastern region, bordering during the Cold War on the Soviet Union. The U.S. military exercised great influence over a Turkish military that strongly influenced domestic politics.

Under Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, elected in 2002, the role of the Turkish military in politics has been curbed. Political and military relations between Ankara and Washington, while still close, play a less central role, and this could be reflected in procurement policy.

NATO has said it is up to each country to decide what military capabilities they acquire but that compatibility with other members' systems is important. Davutoglu said members did not need to consider NATO's needs on everything as each country had its own national considerations.

Bayar said a delegation of Turkish industry and air force officials had witnessed test launches from all the firms but that the Chinese had allowed Turkey to pick its own scenario and offered it a tailored demonstration.

"We said we want this kind of a launch, and our delegation watched the launches as if they were the operators. These were real launches," Bayar said.

(Additional reporting by and Ayla Jean Yackley in Istanbul; Editing by Nick Tattersall, Anna Willard and Giles Elgood)

我說的裏麵有兩段很有趣是最後的兩段：

“Bayar said a delegation of Turkish industry and air force officials had witnessed test launches from all the firms but that the Chinese had allowed Turkey to pick its own scenario and offered it a tailored demonstration.”

我對這一段已經說過了，在《這裏的“tailored”應該就是“相應”的意思》裏，我說：

“感覺把“scenario”翻譯成“測試方案”也不是很準確，“scenario”就是“情況”或“條件”，畢竟這裏說的是防空武器，因此，這裏的“scenario”應該指的是空襲的方式。

按照這個，除了老中，其它的隻演示他們自己的計劃，這就跟賣假藥的帶著自己的治好了病人現身說法一樣了，演示也是白演示，當然成功。

所以，說老中是百發百中和他們的有脫靶都是貶低老中抬舉他們了，因為無論是賣什麽東西，推銷員隻給演示他想演示的，顧客建議換個方法演示都不行，這種推銷演示根本就是做個樣子，根本不是演示，而是強賣，隻有老中是在老老實實做生意。”

大家看出來沒有，按照這個，除了老中，其它的隻演示他們自己的計劃，這就跟表演特異功能，比如說表演耳朵認字，隻能按照他們的方法表演，買方都不能提一種買方關心的方法，所以，演示也是白演示，當然就是忽悠。

所以，大家可想而知，老中買老美和蘇聯還有俄國的武器應該也受到過同樣的待遇。

這裏我也同情一下印度人，誰讓阿三不超英趕美搞大躍進非要把中國當目標呢，那就等中國是老大的那一天吧。

最後一段：

“"We said we want this kind of a launch, and our delegation watched the launches as if they were the operators. These were real launches," Bayar said.”

大家看見最後一句沒有？

“These were real launches”！！！

很可能就是土雞飛了幾架F-16過來，看看紅酒是不是可以玩F-16跟打鳥一樣。

而且，看來紅酒還很容易操作，而且很可能還讓土雞的人員上手了呢。

唉，這大概就是武器發展的趨勢吧，用冷兵器殺人得練幾個月幾年都不一定有用，熱兵器就是二拇指頭扣一下的事兒了。

我鍛煉去了！

到此為止！