一些有關天然氣的重要連接

天然氣從2012年九月開始上漲，差不多到45，然後下到30再反彈到40後就一路下到19。

從 2013年12月關注天然氣以來，這些是我注意到的現象。

12年12月到13年1月中旬的下跌是因為12年的冬天比起前一年來較暖和，inventory withdraw 比去年同期少。天然氣在冬天下跌好像反著常人的思維來的。雖在13年一月有個小漲幅，但總體還是bearish。

Bearish 一直到2013年二月，當大家以為天要熱了，夏天要到，用天然氣會少，天然氣要掉，但這時卻出乎意料的一路漲漲漲，二月一直到四月中旬兩個多月反著大眾思維的一路牛著。因為天氣比去年同期要冷。夏天要到了，後來才開始下跌，卻又一下拉起因為第二個出口天然氣的公司被approve，但天然氣出口不是一下能成的，有很多事要做，至少要過一兩年第一個approve的公司才有可能開始出口。

現在是6月，天氣在70度左右，美國南北不需開空調和暖氣，天然氣還會繼續下跌嗎？夏天來了，空調開起來，天然氣就會用的多了，會漲嗎？

影響天然氣的因素太多，華街操縱太過。

去年12月時，每天range有2-3，現在好像隻在每星期四有range，平時都不動。

從圖上看，兩個山峰很像。



還有要注意每月第4個星期option到期的那個時刻。

http://www.ccstrade.com/futures/natural-gas-futures-ng/exp/
Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX) NG - Futures Expiration

各種有關天然氣的連接：

Natural Gas futures(NGG13.NYM)

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=NGG13.NYM+Futures+Chain


Weather

http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/New+York+NY+USNY0996:1:US


Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks (1/29/2013)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1140541-natural-gas-eia-storage-projections-and-fundamental-discussion-for-next-5-weeks?source=intbrokers_regular


Natural Gas

http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/


Weekly Working Gas in Underground Storage

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_stor_wkly_s1_w.htm


Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm


Natural Gas ETFs Continue to Soar

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-etfs-continue-soar-221238300.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1033811-get-ready-to-buy-natural-gas?source=yahoo
Get Ready To Buy Natural Gas

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3184480.html
看有人談天然氣，我說兩句

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3069453.html
天然氣價格即將全麵回升的最大因素居然是----
tzbcwbc 於 2013-01-05

gas symbol

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456691-a-docile-etf-for-the-nat-gas-surge?source=yahoo


http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3037662.html
UGAZ vs $NATGAS symbol

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3218312.html
NG related ETFs

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-natural-gas-picks-to-fuel-profits-2013-06-24?siteid=yhoof2
3 natural gas picks to fuel profits

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3068647.html
天然氣周線圖。僅做參考.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1534452-natural-gas-unfazed-by-western-heat-wave-decline-to-low-3-range-looms?source=yahoo
Natural Gas Unfazed By Western Heat Wave, Decline To Low-$3 Range Looms

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3227356.html
天然氣沒有跌破前低
tzbcwbc 於 2013-07-11

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3228260.html
歡天然氣的看看這圖也許對未來走勢一目了然（圖)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1545012-natural-gas-prices-will-fall-more-no-upside-catalysts-seen-until-winter?source=yahoo
Natural Gas Prices Will Fall More, No Upside Catalysts Seen Until Winter

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3096957.html
天然氣的曆史數據?

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3106050.html
天然氣展望
tzbcwbc 於 2013-02-15

 天爛氣的絕對庫存量不影響價格，而是往年同期的相對量來決定價格波動範圍。 

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/natgas.cfm
Short-Term Energy Outlook

 

油越貴，頁岩油產量越大，但生產頁岩油附帶大量天然氣，這類天然氣的成本是負的？

 
 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1546172-the-u-s-mexico-natural-gas-export-boom?source=yahoo

 

The U.S. - Mexico Natural Gas Export Boom

 

摘要：

 

If gas shipping does bottleneck as Mexican exports grow, near-at-hand producers in the Eagle Ford and Permian could find themselves best positioned to reap higher prices.

 

Gas-weighted Eagle Ford producers include Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), DCP Midstream Partners, L.P. (DPM), NuStar Energy, L.P. (NS), Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. (SXE), Pioneer (PXD) and EOG Resources (EOG).

 

but it's a safe bet the company is concerned about increased Mexican exports driving up prices of its currently cheap natural gas supply.

 

 

 

This could be the set-up for a battle between gas exporters and domestic consumers. The former looking for higher prices, the latter trying to keep natural gas more affordable.

 

 

 

Power generators, for one. In early June, Calpine Energy Services - the subsidiary of gas-fired power operator Calpine Corp. (CPN) that secures fuel supplies for the company's plants - filed a Motion to Intervene in the permitting of the Eagle Ford export expansion project in south Texas.

 

These issues could delay or even de-rail the massive Eagle Ford expansion. Given that this project accounts for nearly two-thirds of planned new export capacity, it's critical to watch proceedings here. The fate of the "Mexican export boom" may hinge on it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1542902-will-natural-gas-resume-its-downward-trend?source=yahoo
Will Natural Gas Resume Its Downward Trend?

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3229778.html
(ZT) Natural Gas Prices Will Fall More, No Upside Catalysts See

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3230935.html
不能相信天氣預報
tzbcwbc 於 2013-07-16

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-natural-gas-continues-lose-162420284.html
Why natural gas continues to lose market share to coal

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-aren-t-hotter-temperatures-165410435.html
Why aren’t hotter temperatures enough to help natural gas prices?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1553382-near-term-and-intermediate-term-outlook-for-u-s-natural-gas-prices?source=yahoo
Near-Term And Intermediate-Term Outlook For U.S. Natural Gas Prices

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1553492-the-future-for-gold-miners?source=yahoo
The Future For Gold Miners

ZT

In nearly 80% of all the past years that natural gas has been trading, if you would have purchased this commodity on August 1st and held it till the end of the month you would have a made a profit. Now that is what I call a high probability trade.
Natural gas prices are almost entirely driven by the weather. And if you live in the Midwest, Northeast or West Coast, you know that we are having record heat waves this summer 2013. That means a lot of people are running their air conditioner. And what powers most utilities now? Natural gas.
So after yesterday’s extreme move in natural gas, which broke a huge downward trend line, I think we could see prices jump by as much as 20% by the end of August. 

I like the natural gas ETF (NYSEARCA:UNG), as well as call options on it. Another alternative, the 2x leveraged ProShares Ultra Natural Gas ETF (NYSEARCA:BOIL). 

A Small cap natural gas stock that I like is Penn Virginia (NYSE:PVA), this stock is deeply undervalued it is trading at 1/3 of its book value, and is currently breaking out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This could take the stock to $7 in a very short time frame. This would be mean an almost a 40% move for Penn Virginia. The September $5 Calls are attractive at $.40 cents or less, which means if Penn Virginia goes to $7, we are talking about a home run triple digit plus winner on those call options.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-rigs-rose-yet-051200213.html
Natural gas rigs rose yet again – possible reversal of downward trend?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/07/24/will-this-commodity-buck-the-trend/?partner=yahootix
Will This Commodity Buck The Trend?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1573942-bullish-inventory-report-cant-lift-natural-gas-prices-as-traders-eye-cooler-temps?source=yahoo
Bullish Inventory Report Can't Lift Natural Gas Prices As Traders Eye Cooler Temps

今天report不錯，本該UGAZ漲，但這星期天涼快，反而掉了點。

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-inventories-rise-less-162147413.html
Natural gas inventories rise less than expected, but prices still fall

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-etfs-struggle-cool-192617446.html
Natural Gas ETFs Struggle on Cool Weather Forecast

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3129719.html
Here is the reason why Natural Gas is so bullish.

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3130263.html
氣溫

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3130399.html
(ZT) NG touched $4

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprise-jump-natural-gas-rigs-154406238.html
Can the surprise jump in natural gas rigs last?