古風無痕
世界的政經大勢；人生的歡喜怒罵；精神的上下求索。
【古風按】其實，在過去的好多年裏，中國一直在倡導金磚五國成立自己控股的國際銀行體係，可是由於俄國和印度的猶豫和糾葛，金磚銀行始終停留在研究討論的階段。好在有智慧也有耐心的中國靜靜地等待著國際風雲的變幻，讓其他的金磚四國充分認識到在這個世上到底誰是真心對待朋友的，所謂“路遙知馬力、日久見人心”嘛。這不，機會終於等來了，美歐列強們在烏克蘭問題上毫無底線地擠壓俄國的戰略空間，把俄國推上了徹底為敵的道路，讓俄國對美歐死了心。從此，中俄才真正開始大力經營金磚五國政治經濟金融體係，啟動了建立獨立於美歐日的金磚係統，拉開了在全球範圍內去美元、去歐元的序幕。在金磚五國裏，隻要中俄能夠齊心合力，印度、巴西、南非必定跟進，那麽美歐日的最終潰敗將會成為板上釘釘了的曆史事件。從下麵的資訊中，可以看出在金磚五國銀行體係中，中國將獲取41%的投票權，俄國、印度和巴西各有18%的權重，而最後的5%劃給了南非。日後，隨著中國國力的進一步增強，中國的權重也將會繼續“水漲船高”的，並進而成為主導世界政治、經濟、金融的決定性力量。現在，回想起來，若金磚銀行早幾年設立，中國的權重會比現在的41%要低不少，可是俄國和印度的小心眼真的是活生生地演繹了聰明反被聰明誤的道理啊。說到底，畢竟時間站在中國的這一邊，等得越久，其他的金磚四國跟中國的力量對比會越來越懸殊；若金磚銀行遲遲不能成為現實，再過幾年，中國沒準自己搞單幹了，那其他的金磚四國豈不就失去了新世界體係的五常地位了嗎？哈哈。。。
http://finance.qq.com/a/20140416/003031.htm
俄媒：金磚國家將建立自己的IMF和世行
騰訊財經 2014-04-16
北京時間4月16日淩晨消息，俄羅斯媒體周二引述俄羅斯巡回大使瓦蒂姆-拉科夫（Vadim Lukov）的說法報道，金磚國家已經在設立旨在取代分別由美國和歐盟把持的國際貨幣基金組織以及世界銀行的機構方麵取得了重大進展，一個將起到國際貨幣基金組織作用的貨幣儲備池，以及一個取代世界銀行的金磚國家發展銀行最快在2015年就會成立。
瓦蒂姆-拉科夫說，巴西已經起草了金磚國家發展銀行的憲章，俄羅斯則是正在製定設立這個銀行機構的政府間協議。此外，金磚國家已經就新機構的資本金規模達成了一致，也就是每個機構1000億美元。他說，“最初500億美元出資額的分派比例已經在討論中，各方也就發展銀行總部所在地進行了磋商。金磚國家的所有成員國都對讓發展銀行在本國設立總部表達了極大的興趣。”
作為對參與各國經濟規模的體現，貨幣儲備池的出資比例預計將是中國410億美元，巴西、印度以及俄羅斯各180億美元，南非將貢獻50億美元。
與之相比，以特別提款權作為單位的國際貨幣基金組織資金規模大致相當於2384億歐元，或者說3695.2億美元。雖然在規模上金磚國家擬議中的貨幣儲備池規模要遠遠小於國際貨幣基金組織，但是1000億美元對五個國家來說將是綽綽有餘的——國際貨幣基金組織有188個成員國家，它們隨時可能提出財政援助要求。
金磚國家還將設立一家發展銀行作為世界銀行的替代品 ，將針對那些不以美國和歐盟作為受益方，而是讓發展中國家獲利的項目提供貸款。發展銀行的目的將主要是為金磚國家以外的項目提供資金。參與組建這個銀行的國家認為，它們自身有足夠能力開發自己的項目，例如俄羅斯就有自己的國際財富基金來實現這一目的。
經濟專家集團的成員伊亞-普瑞樂普斯基（Ilya Prilepsky）說，“來自發展銀行的貸款將不主要針對金磚國家的項目，而是在其他國家基礎設施建設上的投資，比如在非洲的投資。”他表示，“比如說，向一個非洲國家的水電開發項目提供貸款就是符合金磚國家利益的，它們可以為項目提供設備，或者是成為主要的承包商。”
如果這些貸款是由國際貨幣基金組織來提供，那麽設備將主要由控製了貸款活動的西方國家來供應。
投資企業高登希爾資本的研究主管娜塔莉亞-薩莫伊洛娃（Natalya Samoilova）還指出，金磚國家發展銀行的建立也具有政治上的重大意義，它將使得各成員國得以在海外促進自己的利益。她說，“這是一個政治行動，可以突出那些意見經常被發達的美洲和歐洲國家無視的國家越來越強勢的立場。這個聯盟越強，在世界這個競技場上的地位就越高，也就可以更容易地保護成員國的利益。”
而伊亞-普瑞樂普斯基也強調，即便如此，金磚國家設立自己的替代性合作組織並不是說它們將會退出現在的世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織，至少一開始不會這樣做。 （孔軍）
http://rbth.com/business/2014/04/14/brics_countries_to_set_up_their_own_imf_35891.html
BRICS countries to set up their own IMF
Olga Samofalova, Vzglyad, 14 April 2014
Very soon, the IMF will cease to be the world's only organization capable of rendering international financial assistance. The BRICS countries are setting up alternative institutions, including a currency reserve pool and a development bank.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU. A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank, will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at Large Vadim Lukov has said.
Brazil has already drafted a charter for the BRICS Development Bank, while Russia is drawing up intergovernmental agreements on setting the bank up, he added.
In addition, the BRICS countries have already agreed on the amount of authorized capital for the new institutions: $100 billion each. "Talks are under way on the distribution of the initial capital of $50 billion between the partners and on the location for the headquarters of the bank. Each of the BRICS countries has expressed a considerable interest in having the headquarters on its territory," Lukov said.
It is expected that contributions to the currency reserve pool will be as follows: China, $41 billion; Brazil, India, and Russia, $18 billion each; and South Africa, $5 billion. The amount of the contributions reflects the size of the countries' economies.
By way of comparison, the IMF reserves, which are set by the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), currently stand at 238.4 billion euros, or $369.52 billion dollars. In terms of amounts, the BRICS currency reserve pool is, of course, inferior to the IMF. However, $100 billion should be quite sufficient for five countries, whereas the IMF comprises 188 countries - which may require financial assistance at any time.
BRICS Development Bank
The BRICS countries are setting up a Development Bank as an alternative to the World Bank in order to grant loans for projects that are beneficial not for the U.S. or the EU, but for developing countries.
The purpose of the bank is to primarily finance external rather than internal projects. The founding countries believe that they are quite capable of developing their own projects themselves. For instance, Russia has a National Wealth Fund for this purpose.
"Loans from the Development Bank will be aimed not so much at the BRICS countries as for investment in infrastructure projects in other countries, say, in Africa,” says Ilya Prilepsky, a member of the Economic Expert Group. “For example, it would be in BRICS' interest to give a loan to an African country for a hydropower development program, where BRICS countries could supply their equipment or act as the main contractor."
If the loan is provided by the IMF, the equipment will be supplied by western countries that control its operations.
The creation of the BRICS Development Bank has a political significance too, since it allows its member states to promote their interests abroad. "It is a political move that can highlight the strengthening positions of countries whose opinion is frequently ignored by their developed American and European colleagues. The stronger this union and its positions on the world arena are, the easier it will be for its members to protect their own interests," points out Natalya Samoilova, head of research at the investment company Golden Hills-Kapital AM.
Having said that, the creation of alternative associations by no means indicates that the BRICS countries will necessarily quit the World Bank or the IMF, at least not initially, says Ilya Prilepsky.
Currency reserve pool
In addition, the BRICS currency reserve pool is a form of insurance, a cushion of sorts, in the event a BRICS country faces financial problems or a budget deficit. In Soviet times, it would have been called "a mutual benefit society", says Nikita Kulikov, deputy director of the consulting company HEADS. Some countries in the pool will act as a safety net for the other countries in the pool.
The need for such protection has become evident this year, when developing countries' currencies, including the Russian ruble, have been falling.
The currency reserve pool will assist a member country with resolving problems with its balance of payments by making up a shortfall in foreign currency. Assistance can be given when there is a sharp devaluation of the national currency or massive capital flight due to a softer monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve System, or when there are internal problems, or a crisis, in the banking system. If banks have borrowed a lot of foreign currency cash and are unable to repay the debt, then the currency reserve pool will be able to honor those external obligations.
This structure should become a worthy alternative to the IMF, which has traditionally provided support to economies that find themselves in a budgetary emergency.
"A large part of the fund goes toward saving the euro and the national currencies of developed countries. Given that governance of the IMF is in the hands of western powers, there is little hope for assistance from the IMF in case of an emergency. That is why the currency reserve pool would come in very handy," says ambassador Lukov.
The currency reserve pool will also help the BRICS countries to gradually establish cooperation without the use of the dollar, points out Natalya Samoilova. This, however, will take time. For the time being, it has been decided to replenish the authorized capital of the Development Bank and the Currency Reserve Pool with U.S. dollars. Thus, the U.S. currency system is getting an additional boost. However, it cannot be ruled out that very soon (given the threat of U.S. and EU economic sanctions against Russia) the dollar may be replaced by the ruble and other national currencies of the BRICS counties.
BRICS Consider Creating IMF-Alternative As US Loses Credibility
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-16/brics-consider-creating-imf-alternative-us-loses-credibility
人民幣美元中原逐鹿的最新戰況
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201404/8137.html
2012年9月6日人民幣對美元的總攻開始了！
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201209/10158.html
Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce “Holy Grail” Gas Deal With China
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/petrodollar-alert-isolated-west-putin-prepares-announce-holy-grail-gas-deal-china
Russia And China About To Sign “Holy Grail” Gas Deal
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-09/russia-and-china-about-sign-holy-grail-gas-deal
40 Central Banks Are Betting This Will Be The Next Reserve Currency
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-08/40-central-banks-are-betting-will-be-next-reserve-currency
Gazprom Prepares “Symbolic” Bond Issue In Chinese Yuan
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-10/gazprom-prepares-symbolic-bond-issue-chinese-yuan
