古風指路：近半的工作機會將會被計算機所吞噬

【古風按】下圖是英國牛津大學的兩名學者Carl B. Frey和Michael A. Osborne的最新研究成果（http://www.eldis.org/go/home&id=65902&type=Document#.UqtcreKp71D）。在即將到來的工業自動化狂潮的海嘯衝擊之下，西方發達國家裏幾乎一半的工作將會被計算機所取代。其中，受創最嚴重的行業包羅了幾乎所有的低科技服務型工種（如客服、營銷、辦公秘書等）。其次，低端的商業和金融管理、製造業、土木工程、礦業開發和物流運輸等行業也會受到比較嚴重的波及。相比之下，凡是需要智慧創新的職位基本上都能相安無事，這包括高端的商業和金融管理、理工科、教育、司法、藝術、傳媒、社會健康醫保等等。因此，在未來的20年內，西方的後工業化社會將會進入一種嚴重的兩極分化區：少數高收入、高社會地位、高科技創新的社會精英（不到人口的10%）和大量低收入、低社會地位、低科技的底層手動勞工（約40%的人口），當然還有更多永久失去工作機會的無業遊民（其餘的一半人口）。所以，您若在未來的20年內還需要養家糊口，現在就真的要充滿睿智地擇業了。除了下麵提供的資訊，請繼續閱讀更詳細的資料：《即將到來的自動化浪潮》
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201309/25844.html

最後，古風極力推薦下麵三本有關工業自動化的書供有興趣的網友們閱讀：

The Lights in the Tunnel
by Martin Ford (2009)
http://www.amazon.com/Lights-Tunnel-Automation-Accelerating-Technology/dp/1448659817

Race Against the Machine
by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (2012)
http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-Machine-Accelerating-Productivity/dp/0984725113

Automate This
by Christopher Steiner (2012)
http://www.amazon.com/Automate-This-Algorithms-Came-World/dp/1591844924

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-11/your-job-about-be-handed-over-computer-probability-47

The Probability of Your Job About to be Outsourced by a Computer is 47%
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 12/11/2013

Productivity. Every employer loves it, and every employee is fascinated by it, especially if it comes in cute colors, a retina screen, and weighs under a pound... at least until such time as "productivity" results in the loss of the employee's job, which in turn makes the employer love it even more as it results in even higher profits, even if it means one more pink slip and a 91 million people outside the labor force.

With a labor force already in turmoil as millions drop out every year never to be heard from again, made obscolete by the latest technological and computerized innovation, and students stuck in college where they pile up record amounts of student loans (at last check well over $1 trillion) hoping form some job, any job, upon graduation, unfortunately the future is not bright at all.

In a recently published paper, "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation," Oxford researchers Frey and Osborne, look at the probability of computerization by occuption. What they find is shocking for nearly half of the US labor force, and especially those in the transportation, production, office support, sales, service and extraction professions.

JPM's Michael Cembalest summarizes it as follows:

Life after college: be prepared for technology to continue changing the job landscape

There’s plenty of data on unemployment rates and salaries by undergraduate major (the majors with the lowest unemployment rates and highest salaries: computer, chemical, electrical, civil and mechanical engineering, math/physics, and economics. Drama and film majors are a recipe for living at home). A more important long-run issue to think about may be how technology affects your career. Researchers at Oxford just published an analysis assessing what jobs might be computerized in the future. Their conclusion: a staggering 47% of the US workforce, spanning a range of career types. There are vigorous debates about outsourcing, but increasingly, computerization may grow as a factor affecting employment conditions. 

In The Man in the White Suit, Alec Guinness invents a suit that never has to be cleaned or replaced. London’s tailors and dry cleaners angrily chase him down in the street  to destroy his invention. They are relieved when the suit finally starts to unravel, since the fiber’s design is flawed. Productivity improvements are great things, but there might be a point at which too much power shifts to capital over labor. Anyway, when you think about a career, remember that in some professions, eventually a computer might be able to do it too, or reduce the economic value of you doing it (e.g., the impact of the internet on print journalism).

The good news: those iPad apps are cheap, and most unemployed workers - who were put out of a job thanks to one - can afford them. The bad news: anyone lamenting the return of America's employment golden age, is kindly encouraged to exhale.