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美國為保住自己GDP第一的寶座而采取的政策

(2013-08-01 10:28:15) 下一個

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-29/government-revises-84-years-economic-history-week

The US Government "Revises" 84 Years Of Economic History This Week
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 29 July 2013

Don't like how high debt-to-GDP figures are? Revise 'em. Unhappy at the post-'recovery' growth rates? Revise 'em. Disappointed at the pace of economic improvement in the last decade or two compared to the rest of the world? Revise 'em. This week "we are essentially rewriting economic history" as the BEA is set to revise GDP data from as far back as 1929. The 'adjustments' to account for intangibles (that best known of micro- accounting fudge factors) and as we noted previously in great detail, will increase GDP by around $500 billion. Of course, these changes are defended aggressively (just as the hedonic adjustments to inflation calculations 'make perfect sense') as GDP will now reflect spending on research, development, and copyrights as investment - and reflect pension deficits for the first time (think of all that potential future GDP from massive pension deficits now). With Q2 GDP growth estimates set for a dismal 1.1%, expectations are for the short-term economic data to be revised upwards (and with any luck the great recession never happened at all).

Via WSJ,

US economic history will be rewritten this week, as the most far-reaching methodological changes in years will add the equivalent of a country the size of Belgium to output in the world’s largest economy.
The most important change by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, to be announced on Wednesday, will be to start counting spending on research, development and copyrights as investment, and reflect pension deficits for the first time.
Combined they are expected to add 3 per cent to gross domestic product.
...
“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Which brings up an important question: will government spending on R&D on how to fudge GDP result in the most spectacular Excel circular reference ever created?

【古風按】美國若失去了GDP第一的寶座，會有什麽後果呢？在2012年頭的一篇舊作《古風評說中國GDP超美》（http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201201/19892.html）中，古風特別引用Gallup民意調查公司的主席和總裁Jim Clifton的論述，講解了這個問題。現把相關文字複製如下，供大家參考。

很多網友都認為GDP僅僅是個數字遊戲而已，根本就沒有什麽意義。那麽美國的GDP被中國超越到底會帶來什麽樣的後果呢？請大家閱讀Gallup民意調查公司的主席和總裁Jim Clifton的新書《The Coming Jobs War》，就明白其中的奧妙了。

The Coming Jobs War by Jim Clifton (2011)
http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Jobs-War-Jim-Clifton/dp/1595620559
(Jim Clifton is the chairman and CEO of Gallup)

Let's see what Jim Clifton has written about the USA losing its No.1 GDP status:

“When and if that [China's GDP overtaking USA's] happens, America loses. The world changes; everything changes. China may dominate the world. But it won't have to use its military. When its GDP surpasses America's, it will dominate the world economically by a margin far more than the United States currently has. At that point, China will be the new leader of the world. All decisions between countries on the subjects of peace, trade, environment, borders, laws, and human rights would defer to China. Because more than ever, the new golden rule applies: He who has the gold, rules. And the country with the dominant GDP has the gold and the good jobs ... it will be jobs Armageddon in America. Its unemployment plus underemployment will rise to more than 40%. Leadership of the free world will not be just lost, but overwhelmed. And that's the end for the American experiment in democracy. The history books will say it worked from 1776 to 2040 and then was overwhelmed by Chinese market-based communism.”

最後，請大家再來看看美國真實的GDP增長現狀吧（見下圖）：自從2004年以來美國實際GDP年均萎縮2%以上（紅線是美國政府和大眾傳媒宣傳的喜報，藍線是真實的噩耗）。