古風無痕
世界的政經大勢；人生的歡喜怒罵；精神的上下求索。
【古風按】Kyle Bass 前不久在2012年AmerCatalyst會議的主題演講（http://youtu.be/JUc8-GUC1hY）裏說出了如下的話：
We sit today at the world's largest peacetime accumulation of debt in world history…
…You know how this ends right?
This ends through war…
…I don't know who's going to fight who, but I'm fairly certain in the next few years you will see wars erupt, and not just small ones…
在2011年12月29日歲末的一篇有關中國北鬥資訊的最後（http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201112/29512.html），古風留下了如下的按語：
2011年的確是個值得大書特書的一年。在西方一片衰敗情景中，中國繼續保持著高速發展的健康勢頭。中國的北鬥趕在這個歲末開始了試運行，瞄準的其實不是什麽商業上的效益，而是對美國豎起了金箍棒，明確地昭示：處於經濟崩潰邊緣的美國不要把戰爭的禍水引入中國周遭的亞洲區域。如果發生中美間的直接或間接熱戰，美國現在與中國基本上處於同一技術水平之上，到時候美國及其嘍囉們就會吃不了兜著走了。在另一方麵，中國開始北鬥的試運行正好跟北韓的領袖金正日逝世、日本的新任首相野田佳彥訪華、美國大力顛覆敘利亞、伊朗與俄國，美國大張旗鼓推動TPP，美國高調屯兵澳大利亞，美歐債務危機進一步惡化，歐元瀕臨瓦解，美國預算再陷僵局，美歐經濟毫無起色，西方平民示威暴亂日益嚴重等諸多重大國際事件都湊到了一起，這難道僅僅是個巧合嗎？如果仔細把握世界局勢的脈絡，就會發現人類曆史基本上沿著如下的劇本在演繹：一強稱霸→經濟軍事競爭→列強爭霸→貨幣戰爭→貿易戰爭→肉體戰爭→熱戰決出新霸主→新的輪回開始。自從2007/08年西方爆發金融危機以來，整整4年過去了，整個世界於2010年進入了全球貨幣戰爭的階段，現在已經處於全球貿易戰爭的臨界點，2012年將是人類走向長久和平還是第三次世界大戰的關鍵一年。中國趕在2011年末把北鬥投入試運行、在2012年底讓北鬥達到美國GPS同樣的精度，的確不是僅僅在從事民用商業競爭而已。在2011年歲末，古風許下新年願望：祈禱中國在軍事與經濟上能夠繼續快速發展，徹底打消西方非和平勢力的戰爭圖謀，給全世界人民帶來和平繁榮！
到2012年4月22日，在一篇介紹和總結《時輪》的短文中（http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201204/18485.html），古風留下了如下的文字：
對於大家理解現在和未來15-20年將要發生的一切都會大有助益。比如，當您讀到《時輪三部曲》的第三部末尾時就會看到文章的作者預計：在未來的15年內中美間會爆發世界大戰。再比如《時輪三部曲》的第一部和前傳都明確地說明：自從2008年以來，美國已經進入時輪的第四個階段——全麵危機。從1773年以來，美國已經經曆過了三次“全麵危機”，每一次全麵危機都伴隨著整個社會的全麵戰爭：
American Revolution (1773–1794)，美國獨立戰爭
Civil War (1860–1865)，美國南北內戰（統一戰爭）
Great Depression & World War II (1929–1946)，大蕭條及二戰
Millenial Crisis (2008–????)，中美間的全麵戰爭或美國分裂戰爭（後者為古風個人預言）
如果中國在習李十年後的下一代最高領導層沒有足夠的智慧與忍辱力，中美間的全麵戰爭就極有可能在10-15年內發生；如果中國的最高領導層不陪著美國一同毀滅，那麽美國國內就會發生自毀的分裂戰爭。第一種選擇將是整個人類文明的末日，第二種選擇將是美聯邦的謝幕show。可是，不論哪一種結局在美國的華人都完了。網友們要記住二戰時日裔美國人和猶太裔德國人的遭遇哦。
同時，古風個人預計5年內，金融超級炸彈（那700萬億的衍生壞賬）就會被引爆了。
最後，古風祝願各位網友能夠成功度過這一麵臨整個人類文明的劫難！
古風在2012年10月21日給網友“mzl9876”的回複中寫到： http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201108/27698.html#mark
在下估計：不到亡國，中國絕不會跟日本開戰；即便日本人登（釣魚）島，中國也不會打起來。現在還不是打的時候，就如同快開的水，雖然很響，可是還沒有到最後即將爆開的階段（水真要開之前的一段極短的時間，水會突然由很響變得不響了）。您回去現煮一壺水，看看在下描述得是否準確。哈哈……
在戰略上講，現在開戰，就讓美、日、歐有了共同的敵人，那麽他們就會合力對中國落井下石，甚至連俄國都靠不住。中國目前最好就是輿論上討伐、軍事上演習、戰備上快馬加鞭、經濟上完成產業轉移和升級。隻要再忍個五年，打或不打都成世界霸主了。
古風在2012年10月29日給網友“mzl9876”的回複中寫到： http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201209/12208.html#mark
預計習上台後，會大力推動官員的財產公開製度，打擊貪腐現象，同時也會加大緩和貧富差距的力度。中國的下一個5年將會逐漸走上和諧之路，為10年後穩健地成為全球霸主打下堅實的基礎。
請繼續閱讀：
全球已經進入時輪的第四次轉折（人文的冬天）了
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201301/743.html
《時輪三部曲》及其前傳（索引）
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201204/18485.html
古風解讀全球經濟戰爭實相
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201204/23873.html
2012年9月6日人民幣對美元的總攻開始了！
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201209/10158.html
古風解讀世界主要黃金儲備數據
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201209/16083.html
美國財政懸崖史詩
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201301/23.html
西方（美歐日）經濟整體性硬著陸時機就快到來了
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201212/28622.html
美國經濟體係已接近崩潰邊緣了
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201210/9090.html
2012年：西方經濟體係崩潰元年
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201212/29008.html
China is Getting Ready for the Incoming World War
by Mac Slavo, SHTFplan.com, 9 January 2013
United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011.
The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China’s own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled.
Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason?
Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.
If a 400% year-over-year increase in rice stockpiles isn’t enough to convince you the Chinese are preparing for a significant near-term event, consider that in Australia the country’s two major baby formula distributors have reported they are unable to keep up with demand for their dry milk formula products. Grocery stores throughout the country have been left empty of the essential infant staple as a result of bulk exports by the Chinese.
A surge in sales of one of Australia’s most popular brands of infant formula has led to an unusual sight for this wealthy nation: barren shelves in the baby aisle and even rationing of baby food in some leading retail outlets.
We’d be more apt to believe the Chinese were panic-buying baby formula had the Chinese milk scandal occurred recently. The problem is that it happened four years ago. Are we to believe the Chinese are just now realizing their baby food may be tainted?
In addition to the apparent build-up in food stocks, the Chinese are further diversifying their cash assets (denominated in US Dollars) into physical goods. In fact, in just a single month in 2012, the Chinese imported and stockpiled more gold than the entirety of the gold stored in the vaults of the European Central Bank (and did we mention they did this in one month?).
Their precious metals stockpiles have grown so quickly in recent years that Chinese official holdings remain a complete mystery to Western governments and it’s rumored that the People’s Republic may now be the second largest gold hoarding nation in the world, behind the United States.
We won’t know for sure until the official disclosure which will come when China is ready and not a moment earlier, but at the current run-rate of accumulation which is just shy of 1,000 tons per year, it is certainly within the realm of possibilities that China is now the second largest holder of gold in the world, surpassing Germany’s 3,395 tons and second only to the US.
But the Chinese aren’t just buying precious metals. They’re rapidly acquiring industrial metals as well.
Spot iron prices are up to an almost 15-month high at $153.90 per tonne. The rally in prices, which started in December 2012, is mainly due to China’s rebuilding of its stockpiles as the Asian giant gears to boost its economy, which in turn, could improve steel demand.
The official explanation, that China is preparing stockpiles in anticipation of an economic recovery, is quite amusing considering that just 8 months ago Reuters reported that China had an oversupply, so much so that their storage facilities had run out of room to store all the inventory!
When metals warehouses in top consumer China are so full that workers start stockpiling iron ore in granaries and copper in car parks, you know the global economy could be in trouble.
At Qingdao Port, home to one of China’s largest iron ore terminals, hundreds of mounds of iron ore, each as tall as a three-storey building, spill over into an area signposted “grains storage” and almost to the street.
Further south, some bonded warehouses in Shanghai are using carparks to store swollen copper stockpiles – another unusual phenomenon that bodes ill for global metal prices and raises questions about China’s ability to sustain its economic growth as the rest of the world falters.
Now, why would China be stockpiling even more iron (and setting 15 month price highs in the process) if they had massive amounts of excess inventory just last year?
Something tells us this has nothing to do with an economic recovery, or even economic theory in terms of popular mainstream analysis.
Why does China need four times as much rice year-over-year? Why purchase more iron when you already have a huge surplus? Why buy gold when, as Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke suggests, it is not real money? Why build massive cities capable of housing a million or more people, and then keep them empty?
It doesn’t add up. None of it makes any sense.
Unless the Chinese know something we haven’t been made privy to.
Is it possible, in a world where hundreds of trillions of dollars are owed, where the United States indirectly controls most of the globe’s oil reserves, and where super powers have built tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and spent hundreds of billions on weapons of war (real ones, not those pesky semi-automatic assault rifles), that the Chinese expect things to take a turn for the worse in the near future?
The Chinese are buying physical assets – and not just representations of those assets in the form of paper receipts – but the actual physical commodities. And they are storing them in-country. Perhaps they’ve determined that U.S. and European debt are a losing proposition and it’s only a matter of time before the financial, economic and monetary systems of the West undergo a complete collapse.
At best, what these signs indicate is that the People’s Republic of China is expecting the value of currencies ( they have trillions in Western currency reserves) will deteriorate with respect to physical commodities. They are stocking up ahead of the carnage and buying what they can before their savings are hyper-inflated away.
At worst, they may very well be getting ready for what geopolitical analyst Joel Skousen warned of in his documentary Strategic Relocation, where he argued that some time in the next decade the Chinese and Russians may team up against the United States in a thermo-nuclear showdown.
Hard to believe? Maybe.
But consider that China is taking measures now, in addition to their stockpiling, that suggest we are already in the opening salvos of World War III. They have already taken steps to map our entire national grid – that includes water, power, refining, commerce and transportation infrastructure. They’re directly involved in hacking government and commercial networks and are responsible for what has been called the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. Militarily, the PRC has been developing technology like EMP weapons systems, capable of disabling our military fleets and the electrical infrastructure of the country as a whole, and has been caught red-handed manufacturing fake computer chips used in U.S. Navy weapons systems.
If you still doubt China’s intentions and expectations, look to other governments, including our own, for signs that someone, somewhere is planning for horrific worst-case scenarios:
- The Russians have scheduled 5,000 underground bunkers for completion this year.
- Europe rapidly designed, built and stocked the so-called Doomsday Seed Vault in Svalbard, Norway, which contains tens of thousands of varieties of seeds and is supposed to preserve them in the event of Armageddon style events like asteroid impacts or nuclear war.
- The United States government has been stockpiling tens of millions of emergency meals and other supplies and regionalizing their emergency distribution centers across the country (curiously, those supplies never made it to Hurricane Sandy victims)
- The government has purchased nearly 2 billion rounds of ammunition in the last few years.
- The Pentagon has been Actively War Gaming ‘Large Scale Economic Breakdown’ and ‘Civil Unrest’
- China recently made a call, through their Xinhua news agency, for the complete disarmament of the American population (Behind every blade of grass…)
Perhaps there’s a reason why former Congressman Roscoe Bartlett has warned, “those who can, should move their families out of the city.”
As Kyle Bass noted in a recent speech, “it’s just a question of when will this unravel and how will it unravel.”
Given how similar events have played out in history, we think you know how this ends.
Governments around the world are stockpiling food, supplies, precious metals and arms, suggesting that there is foreknowledge of an impending event.
Should we be doing the same?
In Africa US is Already Fighting with China
by Washington’s Blog, 12 January 2013
America Sets Its Sights On Controlling African Resources … And Reducing Chinese Influence
The U.S. is sending troops to 35 African nations under the guise of fighting Al Qaeda and related terrorists.
Democracy Now notes:
U.S. Army teams will be deploying to as many as 35 African countries early next year for training programs and other operations as part of an increased Pentagon role in Africa. The move would see small teams of U.S. troops dispatched to countries with groups allegedly linked to al-Qaeda, such as Libya, Sudan, Algeria and Niger. The teams are from a U.S. brigade that has the capability to use drones for military operations in Africa if granted permission. The deployment could also potentially lay the groundwork for future U.S. military intervention in Africa.
NPR reports:
[A special American brigade] will be able to take part in nearly 100 separate training and military exercises next year, in nearly three dozen African countries
Glenn Ford writes:
The 2nd Brigade is scheduled to hold more than 100 military exercises in 35 countries, most of which have no al-Qaida presence. So, although there is no doubt that the U.S. will be deeply involved in the impending military operation in Mali, the 2nd Brigade’s deployment is a much larger assignment, aimed at making all of Africa a theater of U.S. military operations. The situation in Mali is simply a convenient, after-the-fact rationale for a long-planned expansion of the U.S. military footprint in Africa.
Timothy Alexander Guzman argues:
AFRICOM’s [the U.S. military's Africa command] goal is to eliminate China and other countries influence in the region. Africa’s natural resources is another important element to consider because it includes oil, diamonds, copper, gold, iron, cobalt, uranium, bauxite, silver, petroleum, certain woods and tropical fruits.
In a must-watch interview, Dan Collins of the China Money Report agrees that the purpose of the deployment is to challenge China’s rising prominence in Africa:
(Indeed, the U.S. considers economic rivalry to be a basis for war).
In reality – as we’ve repeatedly noted – the U.S. sends in the military to fight “terrorists” in any country which has resources we want (and see this).
And the U.S. is not shy about backing our “mortal enemies” to topple those standing between us and resources we pine for.
Anthony Carlucci argues that the overthrow of Gaddafi (largely through American support of terrorists) was really the opening salvo in the war for African resources:
Chinese November Gold Imports Soar To 91 Tons; 2012 Total 720 Tons
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, 10 January 2013
Regular readers are familiar with our monthly series showing the inexorable surge in Chinese gold imports. It is time for the November update, and it's a doozy: at 90.8 tons, this was the second highest gross import number of 2012, double the 47 tons imported in October (which many saw, incorrectly, as an indication of China's waning interest in the yellow metal), and brings the Year to Date total to a massive 720 tons of gold through November. If last year is any indication, the December total will be roughly the same amount, and will bring the total 2012 import amount to over 800 tons, double the 392.6 tons imported in 2011.
Indicatively, should the full year total import number indeed print in the 800 tons range, it will mean that in one year China, whose official reserve holdings are still a negligible 1054 (and realistically at least double, if not triple, this number), will have imported more gold than the official holdings of Japan, last pegged at 765.2 tons (and well more than the ECB's 502.1 tons).
Finally, putting the November import number in context, so far in 2012 China has bought some $39 billion worth of gold. How many US Treasurys has China bought in the same time period? Under $10 billion.
Finally, let's not forget that recently China surpassed South Africa as the world's biggest producer of gold with annual output in the hundreds of tons. Add the net imports number to this total (which amounted to some 281 tons in 2012 according to Bloomberg) and one can get a sense of how big China's appetite for hard assets, instead of trillion dollar coin-backed "promises of repayment", has become.
Washington’s Hegemonic Ambitions Are Not in Sync With Its Faltering Economy
by Paul Craig Roberts, 7 January 2013
In November the largest chunk of new jobs came from retail and wholesale trade. Businesses gearing up for Christmas sales added 65,700 jobs or 45% of November’s 146,000 jobs gain. With December sales a disappointment, these jobs are likely to reverse when the January payroll jobs report comes out in February. Family Dollar Stores CEO Howard Levine told analysts that his company’s customers were unable to afford toys this holiday season and focused instead on basic needs such as food. Levine said that his customers “clearly don’t have as much for discretionary purchases as they once did.”
For December’s new jobs we return to the old standbys: health care and social assistance and waitresses and bartenders. These four classifications accounted for 93,000 of December’s new jobs, 60% of the 155,000 jobs.
Obviously, the economy is not going anywhere except down. It takes approximately 150,000 new jobs each month to stay even with population growth and new entrants into the work force. Few of the jobs that are being created pay well, and the constant, consistent demand for more poorly paid waitresses, bartenders and hospital orderlies is difficult to believe. If Americans cannot afford toys for their kid’s Christmas, how can they afford to eat and drink out?
Media spin seeks to create a recovery out of thin air, but these graphs from John Williams (shadowstats.com) show the reality:
Keep in mind that the 7.8% unemployment rate (U.3) that is headlined by the financial media does not include discouraged workers who have ceased to look for jobs. The government’s U.6 rate includes workers who have been too discouraged to seek work for less than a year. This rate of unemployment is 14.4%, almost twice the U.3 rate that the media prefers to report.
In 1994 the US government defined out of existence unemployed Americans who have been discouraged from finding work for more than a year. John Williams estimates the long term discouraged workers. When his estimate is added to the U.6 measure, the US unemployment rate stands at 23%, three times the reported rate.
The rate of unemployment is so high because millions of US jobs have been offshored and given to Chinese, Indian, and other workers and because remaining businesses have been concentrated in few hands in violation of the anti-trust laws. (Go to this URL to see the concentration of the media: http://frugaldad.com/2011/11/22/media-consolidation-infographic/ )
We need to be concerned about a financial media and economics profession that believes a recovery is underway when the unemployment rate is so high and the real median income is so low. It is a mystery how any set of policymakers could possibly have believed that a country whose economy is driven by consumer expenditures can continue to expand when the jobs that produce the incomes that drive the economy are given to foreigners in foreign lands.
Essentially, Americans were told a packet of lies designed to win their gullible acceptance to an economy that produces high returns for Wall Street, shareholders, and corporate executives at the expense of everyone else in the country. The wage savings from the use of overseas labor means large rewards for the one percent and Family Dollar customers who cannot afford to buy toys for their children at Christmas.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2013/01/daily-chart-7
(US's) Unhealthy Outcomes
by Economist.com, 11 January 2013
America fares badly in a comparison of health measures in rich countries
IT IS hardly news that America spends more on health care than any other country. Nor is it news that this money fails to make Americans healthy. But a new report from America’s Institute of Medicine and National Research Council illuminates the many ways in which America’s health lags that of other rich countries and tries to explain why. Health spending reached $2.7 trillion in 2011, equal to 17.9% of America’s GDP (and more than the entire GDP of Britain). Yet America performs poorly on nearly every measure. Life expectancy has risen, but not as quickly as among America’s peers. In a ranking of 17 rich countries, America’s death rate from non-communicable diseases is higher than any country except Denmark.
The statistics are particularly bleak for the young. America has the highest infant-mortality rate of the 17 rich countries examined. Its teenagers are more likely to become pregnant or die from a car accident or violence. Shockingly, deaths among under-50s account for roughly two-thirds of the gap in life expectancy between American men and those in comparable countries. The old fare better. If an American is lucky enough to reach 75, he can expect to live longer than his peers elsewhere.
America is obviously doing something wrong. But what, exactly? That is the $2.7 trillion question. The report offers a few tentative answers. The structure of America’s health system is partly to blame. Different types of care are siloed, which is inefficient. Doctors are paid for providing lots of services, rather than keeping patients well. There are fewer general practitioners. More citizens lack insurance and more find care unaffordable. The gap might also be explained by behaviour. Americans may smoke and drink less than people in other countries, but they tend to eat more, take more drugs, own more guns and are more often in drunk-driving accidents. They have sex younger, with more partners, using protection less frequently. But circumstance and behaviour cannot explain all. Interestingly, even rich, insured, non-smoking, normal-weight Americans are less healthy than adults with similar traits in similar countries.
How all these factors relate to one another is difficult to untangle. Even harder is getting politicians to agree on which problem to tackle first. Barack Obama’s health reforms, which will take full effect in 2014, expand insurance and start to tweak doctors’ perverse incentives. This new report is a reminder of how much is left to be done.
古風解讀美國奧式全民健保的末日
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201204/496.html
基因改造食品正在殘害美國民眾
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201203/19373.html
古風解讀轉基因農作物致癌的最新科學證據
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201209/15645.html
全美國國民都在作轉基因的labrats嗎？
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201209/23199.html
到2012年底北鬥在中國的周邊已經可以達到美國GPS同樣的精度了。
http://www.chinesemission-vienna.at/chn/zgbd/t1002118.htm
全球定位對於現在的中國戰略來說，不是特別地緊要，所以中國推遲到2020年來完成。
古風
中國的北鬥是試運行了，可隻能解決中國局部定位， 北鬥衛星連發射都沒發射全呢，離全球定位的總數還差得遠呢， 想趕上美國的GPS，2012肯定不行。什麽時候衛星發全了再說吧。 當然照現在發射的速度，估計5-10年吧。