有個性的人，展現你自己的數據，把你的信息傳達出去

成為一個有個性的人，就必須向外麵展現你自己的數據，把你的信息傳達出去 Personalization and transparency are positively correlated. If you hide yourself completely, not to share any data, your personalized also zero. If you want to become a personality, you must show your own data to the outside, convey your message out. We are still in the traditional and cutting-edge alternating years, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, do not talk to someone to share my life, but these are just my point of view you are now. believes that in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times. 矽穀精神教父凱文·凱利：對未來商業科技趨勢的11個預言   Inventory: technology trends over the next 20 years

Papers Category:Computer Papers - Internet Research Papers Post Time:2014-10-28 13:59:00 http://eng.hi138.com/computer-papers/internet-research-papers/201410/456568_inventory-technology-trends-over-the-next-20-years.asp#.VplGyNL2ZQU (Free Paper Download Center News) Recently, the spiritual godfather of Silicon Valley, Technology Business prophet Kevin Kelly at Stanford University, for more than 20 participants from China Europe International Business School for as long as three hours to share, to talk about his future 20 Major trends in business technology insights. KK wonderful views Broadcasting 1, the next one of the times is the times of oxygen in the near future, the amount of information transmitted over the wireless network we will exceed the amount of information through a wired transmission network. 2, the future, the data will be more between each person transmission of smart devices, will not return to the tower, switch, or 'cloud' inside. By 2020, more than two-thirds of the distance information transfer is not more than 1 km . 3, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, sexual life but only your current view in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times... 4, driverless cars in the future will become your new office, you use the car received data than sitting in the office where you received more data. 5, Bitcoin really bring the feeling of subversion is an exchange, and this exchange produces the same money value. 6,20 thing after the greatest product, we have not been invented. While high-tech companies such as Google so powerful and successful, but I just want to say that you now is not late, but it is already happening fundamental on what are not. Speech text 'Disruptive innovation' Professor Christensen is the concept that this famous innovator's dilemma >> << mentioned in the book. He told us that innovation in a successful body Now that is what's likely to occur .1800 , the world's most profitable companies are those companies operating sailboat, which has become a global enterprise. Then steamboat was invented, no sail, launched by a steam turbine. steamboat appear at the beginning, is an experience terrible traffic Tools - compared with Galleon small and short, manufacturing is very expensive, reliability is very poor at the time of the big shipping companies have not put it in the eye. However, despite all sorts of tricky, but there is a steamboat advantage is that you can countercurrent forward, which can only be changed for thousands of years mankind 'down the river' of history. With the development of technology, the steamship becomes cheaper, higher and higher reliability, the volume is also getting bigger. Finally, the steamboat technology is mature, not only destroyed the galleon, but also eliminated the galleon do those who rely on ocean shipping company. Disruptive innovations are initially a joke To sum up: there is a disruptive technology innovation mode: just began to appear humble when things are being overlooked can see these three lines: the top line is doing a very good industry leaders in the market, There is a very stable development curve, a curve is below the minimum consumer satisfaction, the bottom of that point, was the emergence of disruptive innovation enterprise. Initially, disruptive innovation technology than poor customer requirements, is a joke. However, when it is at a faster pace, suddenly one day met a demand point of consumers, it will generate momentum quickly become ruler of the market. For a disruptive technology start-ups, they have very struggle, the quality of work is very low, very high risk, profit is very low, the market is very small, the business model has not been paid much attention to rational businessman would not do it kind of business. Why only start-ups and small businesses will do these innovations? Because they have no choice. a very, very frightening fact is that most start-ups are finally finished it! Another opponent, no matter what industry you are doing and really pose the greatest threat to you certainly not now within the industry opponent, but you can not see beyond those industry competitors. Next, I want to talk to everyone who I think there may have areas of subversion. Oxygen from the Copper Age to Age The first fact that I want to say is this: not the substance of the fastest growing in the world, but the information it than all of our biological capacity, human productivity faster amount of information in the world to what extent needed.? 16 multiplied by 276 to describe the power of Humans create network cable lengths per second has exceeded the speed of sound. These called the information explosion, the expansion speed of information and the speed of the atomic bomb is the same. And this is a long-lasting explosion, far far from instant. By 2050, the amount of data to reach a very scary one million Zetabit. A Zetabit is one trillion G. Then this era called Zeta era, the era after the Zeta, the greater the magnitude of what used to describe information? English has Ciqiong. I talked with a lot of linguists to this problem, they have no answers. Faced with such a large amount of information, we do not even have a good mathematical algorithms to real-time processing of data. How do I use the data, the data becomes valuable things? there is there a lot of opportunities. Different commercial use different media to transmit information era. Early copper, because people with cable transmission, and then entered the era of silicon, silicon fabricated chips. I think the next era is the era of oxygen in the near future, we adopted a wireless network the total amount of information to transmit information will be transmitted over the network via a wired personal data is a big future There is also a trend for future data: Now a lot of data are transmitted over intercontinental submarine cable, is transmitted between geographically but will remain in the future a lot of data processed locally, or even the total information to each family as a unit process. amount may be larger than the amount of data left in the local. and then expand a level, each of us will have a lot of data every day. In the broadcast era, the number of visitors is a big middleweight, by the broadcasting station to touch , to the age of the Internet, there blog and social media, you become a broadcasting station, you can have a lot of the audience, but the amount of information you pass less, far less than the broadcast station, and later appeared micro-channel circle of friends, passed to the relatively small audience, but a very large amount of information. I think the future is everyone passing era own information. Large sites like Amazon have a node to control a lot of the audience, which we call the 'cloud', a low level that some local transmitting station, which we call the 'fog', and the bottom is called the grid, that is, Each of us as a receiver. I predict that the next data between each person more intelligent transmission equipment, will not return to the tower, switch, or 'cloud' inside. We own a small form LAN 2020, more than two-thirds of the distance information transfer is not more than 1 km. So, although not like the current level of technology telecom WiFi, Bluetooth technology, is not very serious, profit margins are low, the market is very small, a lot of problems, but it is not possible to subvert the future? The ability to intervene in the network is more important than ownership Another disruptive technology is the cloud technology. In a group of 500 people, the amount of information that is 500 square feet level, another 500 people groups information is 500 square feet level. If these two groups networking, is able to produce the amount of data the square magnitude of 1000, far greater than the two 500-square traditional expansion of the network is very simple, even these smaller networks together into a larger network. expansion of the network to bring growth is geometric multiples. Therefore, there is a big cloud, than you put it dispersed into many small value of the network much more. From this point of view the Internet, the more the number, the cost of providing each customer you can infinitely close to zero You basically can provide a free service. With the development of cloud technology, the ability to intervene in the network than the actual ownership has to be more important. Since the Property is the foundation of capitalism, now we subvert the ownership of capital Marxism is a very important thing. All business is business data No matter what industry you are doing, you are doing business data business. Your data about customers, in fact, talk to your customers for you is equally important data through the network flow, from one format into another format data should not be defined in its storage, it should be defined by the circulation. Past data era, we used files, folders, desktop these things. After entering the Internet age, the data appears on the web page, link inside. Today we use the cloud, with a label to describe the data stream. For now, file clip, what's on the page is not the most important data. All things are in our data stream, there is information and news. My past is the key word, the key word now is that we, in the past is the key word project now the key word is the data we are in the first day of the new era of the Internet, at this moment the most important. Then we need to know how to quantify myself, I have been involved in such a project, to our own Some of the information to the data. We use a lot of equipment to carry out self quantify. Some people I know, will be installed more than 40 sensors on the body, constantly test their data. I have a bet with a person, any one as long as humans use tools that can be measured data, must be weighed in. Why do we have to track these data? There are health reasons, social reasons, improve work efficiency reasons. There are a lot of very forefront of data measurement tools, for example, there is a tool to analyze we breathe gas inside the compound, through the analysis of breath to determine your blood situation. Apple introduced the watch is kept collecting your data, processed through APP. Through data analysis, we can see that the highest efficiency of day, and in the day we what to eat, what to do things to improve efficiency. We can pass such a way to better understand themselves and improve production efficiency. 　 Now just to share an early age Now a hot topic of discussion is the ubiquitous camera surveillance. However, the Internet always want to monitor and collect data, we are hard to stop this trend. On us every phone has a camera, which means A total of 6 billion global video camera. social media flourished, let us always keep our position in the report. Spielberg and I did a movie together called << >> Minority Report, the actor has always wanted to be tracked from the environment to escape, but he found his every place advertising on the screen have changed as for his advertising. We are talking about Pornographic, prism National Security Agency, and we all know that their data has been collected unsafe. These data were collected we are unable to stop, and we should be thinking about is how to how to put patterns from data collected by one agency to control, become to observe each other between you and me. For example, the United States, police brought a camera sensor for real-time monitoring of the public, then, in turn, the public can also bring this thing to monitor Police on what we do. Personalization and transparency are positively correlated. If you hide yourself completely, not to share any data, your personalized also zero. If you want to become a personality, you must show your own data to the outside, convey your message out. We are still in the traditional and cutting-edge alternating years, many people say: I will not talk to other people share my medical data, financial data, do not talk to someone to share my life, but these are just my point of view you are now. believes that in the future people will go to share these data, we are still in an early share of the times. Augmented reality, a new interface and visual tracking We all know that Google glasses, and now wearable smart lenses can be directly attached to your cornea. Wearable device more than a spectacle, it may become clothes. We use it to receive data, and also to transfer data, interact with it through a variety of friction. We did a blind back wearable vest, a camera above, you can see the front, through the vibration to tell the blind how to go. These are augmented reality, I learned in college is this profession. Augmented reality with virtual objects you see in the real world together in some way, which is cool. The new interface, I demonstrated in over->> << Minority Report Tom Cruise in the operation of a computer, keyboarding is not like us, but the whole body with them to talk to a machine interaction Each part of the body that we should be able to operate a computer. If I want to do a science fiction movie, I will never let a movie protagonist use the keyboard to operate a computer, and I let him do some gestures, and it looked at the work. There are also visual tracking. It keeps track of your eyes look out of place, you know what you are looking at through visual tracking, we can also capture his emotions, the use of these technologies to track his eye, to see what he was looking at How, when the mood changes accordingly to change our content. As a result, we look at the screen when in fact it is also watching us so we can go based on the feedback to modify our work. Voice technology is far more than Apple's SIRI technology, such as translation. There is a real-time translation tool, the screen shot is Spanish, displays became English. This is one of our last one an idea of ??interpersonal interaction, said earlier that in addition to these, he is a helmet, you take it in his head to capture your ideas, you can go through your mind manipulate the computer. Attention where it is, where is the money Attention Economy is a subversive field, where the attention, the money where it is. A lot of people are watching the mail every day, spend a lot of time in the mail, it takes up our time. So some people say that you should read messages can get the money, because you spend time in. If you have money to read e-mail, then read advertising is not more to give money? Now the advertising model is to spend money to vote for the advertising company, why not go directly to the money on your users, so that he could get the money to see the ads it? So that we can look at this man's attention where it is, and then use the money to buy his attention and let him see our advertising. This will affect other people, influential people should give more money. A new business model is that we should have the right to allow themselves to be media, in their own ads on top to make money. For example, some of the following blog will put an ad that looks pretty cool, not like an ad, but Bo Lord can get the money. Also people should have the ability to go through their own production of advertising to make money. There are consumers directly involved advertising, direct advertising, and then become socialized an advertising through their own social media. This is completely subversion of the advertising industry. Remote image and video technology Remote image is a subversive areas, such as conference calls, remote medical .Oculus is a virtual reality company Facebook has just acquired, I tried their products, I feel particularly good, is a full immersion experience, very real .Facebook spent $ 1 billion to acquire the company. In addition there are a variety of screens, including folding screens. Next screen, not just the hard one, we can even become like a book, like the screen, you can turn, you can fold the contents inside the variable . There are no screen display, such as a hologram. holographic technology is not perfect now, but later on we could also produce subversion. We now have people who are not reading, but people who read the screen. screen there are a variety of all sorts of logic. 3D printing has brought us a huge subversion is that you used to think those things hardware and software in the future will become a .3D print something out is actually a drawing, to be able to change can be transmitted, modified, data formation. So this is one we are now talking about this with a variety of Internet devices, it is also the chip inside, Americans have an expectation, re-use of 3D printing technology to make manufacturing return to the United States, but there are a kinds of argument, China is now the leader in 3D printing. Artificial intelligence is the wisdom that can be purchased Apple's SIRI is artificial intelligence, you can dialogue with it. But we see most of the AI ??is not so cool, all running in the background. It can handle X-rays, handling legal evidence, flight problems, etc. Now the graphics processing Chip's progress to enhance the ability of machine learning, there are some machines can understand your photos, tell you what these pictures are about, human interaction can also be a dialogue with you, is still in the laboratory stage. Artificial intelligence is a service that you can spend money to buy through artificial intelligence to start a company, you need to use artificial intelligence to a particular field to increase the intelligence, such as unmanned aerial vehicles, in fact, the artificial intelligence into . It appears the car will affect the traffic state, the impact of this industry and the courier driver industry people and the real revolution: The cars in the future will become your new office, in the future you use the car received data than you take the data received in the office more. Electronic money is a form of communication Money is important, but money is a form of communication now. All the same field with the nature of communication, such as sharing, cooperation, tracking, broadcast, elaborate or identify all communication with nature. There is a cryptographic currency called Bitcoin , means that the communication is encrypted. Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, currency trading is not invisible electronic money generated related to communication, is able to track, in fact, is a kind of communication. So bits subversion coins really bring a sense of communication, and this produces the same money exchange value. Raise public equity revolution US now has 450 public raise the platform, resulting in some very successful projects, it has now become a big business, a lot of money flocked to this area. A lot of people use this site is not intended to raise public financing, but with this things to do market research, to look at their business plan will not be popular. Recently the congregation to raise equity to be recognized, and this is a very big revolution. If we are through to the 1980s, when people tell, 30 years later you will have to Wikipedia, there will be a variety of cool technology of today, no one would believe it. Looking to the next 20 years is unimaginable to us today The only thing I know is that 20 years after the greatest product, we have not been invented, and you as an entrepreneur, it is necessary to invent these things! Although high-tech companies such as Google so powerful and successful, but I just want to say, you is not late now, but what has happened now is simply not anything (Source: Central European Institute of Business Management, compile: Free Paper Download Center

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凱文·凱利預言未來20年商業科技趨勢 近日，矽穀精神教父、科技商業預言家凱文·凱利在斯坦福大學進行了長達3個小時的分享，暢談他對未來20年重大商業科技潮流的見解。本文根據演講內容整理。 　　未來將最有可能出現破壞性創新和顛覆的領域在於以下幾個方麵： 從銅時代到氧氣時代 　　我想說的第一事實就是：這個世界上增長最快的不是物質，而是信息。它比我們所有的生物產能，人類的生產力都要快。世界上的信息量大到什麽程度？ 需要用16乘以276次方去描述。人類每秒鍾創造的網線長度已經超過了聲速。這些就叫信息爆炸，信息膨脹的速度和原子彈爆炸的速度是一樣的。而這是一個持 久的爆炸，遠遠不是一瞬間。 　　不同的商業時代使用不同介質傳遞信息。早期是銅，因為人們用電纜傳輸；然後進入矽的時代，矽製造成芯片。我認為下一個時代是氧氣的時代。在不久的將來，我們通過無線網絡來傳輸的信息總量就會超過通過有線網絡來傳輸的信息總量。 個人數據才是大未來 　　未來數據還有一個趨勢：如今很多數據都在洲際間通過海底光纜來傳輸，是地理位置之間的傳輸。但今後很多數據會留在本地進行處理，甚至以每個家庭為單位處理的信息總量可能會比留在本地的數據總量還要大。 　　再擴大一個層麵來說，我們每個人每天都會產生很多數據。在廣播時代，觀眾人數是一個很大的量級，由廣播台去觸及；到了互聯網時代，出現博客和社 會化媒體，你成為了一個廣播台，可以擁有很多受眾，但你傳遞的信息量比較少，遠遠不如廣播台；後來出現了微信朋友圈，傳遞給相對少的受眾，但信息的總量非 常大。我認為未來就是每一個人傳遞自己信息的時代。 　　到2020年，超過2/3的信息傳送距離不會超過1公裏。那麽像WiFi、藍牙技術等目前雖然不是電信級別的技術，不是很嚴肅，利潤很低，市場很小，問題很多，但是不是有可能顛覆未來呢？ 介入網絡的能力重於所有權 　　另一個顛覆性的技術就是雲技術。在一個500人的團體裏，信息量是500平方等級的；另一個500人團體的信息量也是500平方等級的。如果這 兩個團體聯網，則能產生1000的平方量級的數據量，遠遠大於兩個500的平方。傳統擴大網絡很簡單，就是把這些小的網絡連起來，變成一個更大的網絡。擴 大網絡規模帶來的增長是幾何倍數的。所以，有一個很大的雲，要比你把它分散成很多小的網絡的價值更多。 　　從這個互聯網角度看，人數越多，你提供每個客戶的成本就向零無限靠近，你基本上可以提供一個免費的服務。隨著雲技術的不斷發展，介入網絡的能力要比實際擁有的所有權要更重要。由於物權是資本主義的基礎，現在我們在顛覆所有權，對資本主義就是一個很重要的事情。 所有生意都是數據生意 　　不管你現在做什麽行業，你做的生意都是數據生意。你關於客戶的這些數據，其實跟你的客戶對於你來說是同樣重要的。數據可以通過網絡流轉，從一個格式變成另一個格式。數據不應該以它的存儲而定義，應該由它的流轉來定義。 　　過去的數據時代，我們使用文件、文件夾、桌麵這些東西。進入網絡時代之後，數據就出現在網頁上、鏈接裏。今天我們用雲，用標簽、流來比喻數據。 對現在來說，文件夾、網頁什麽的就不是最重要的數據。所有的東西都在我們的數據流裏，有信息、有新聞。過去的關鍵詞是我，現在的關健詞是我們；過去的關鍵 詞是項目，現在的關健詞是數據。我們處於整個互聯網新時代的第一天，此時此刻最重要的。接下來我們就需要了解如何量化自己，我也一直在參與這樣的項目，把 我們自身的一些信息去數據化。 現在隻是分享時代的早期 　　現在討論很熱的一個話題就是無處不在的攝像頭監控。然而互聯網總是希望去監控和采集數據，我們是很難去停止這個趨勢的。我們每一台手機上都有一個攝像機，這意味著全球一共有60億台攝像機。社會化媒體的興盛，讓我們總是不停在報告我們的位置。 　　個性化與透明度是正相關的。如果你完全把自己藏起來，不對別人分享任何數據，你的個性化也為零。如果你想成為一個有個性的人，就必須向外麵展現你自己的數據，把你的信息傳達出去。 　　我們現在還處於傳統和前沿交替的年代，很多人說：我不會去跟別人分享我的醫療數據，財務數據，不會去跟別人分享我的生活。但這些隻是你現在的觀點。我認為，今後人們會去分享這些數據，我們現在還處於分享時代的早期。 增強現實、新交互界麵與視覺跟蹤 　　大家都知道穀歌眼鏡，而現在的可穿戴智能隱性眼鏡可以直接貼在你的角膜上。可穿戴設備不止是眼鏡，它可能變成衣服。我們用它來接收數據，同時也 在傳遞數據，通過各種摩擦跟它互動。我們還給盲人做了一個可穿戴式的背心，上麵有攝像頭，可以看到前方，通過振動去告訴這個盲人怎麽走。 　　新的交互界麵，我在《少數派報告》中演示過。湯姆克魯斯在操作一台電腦的時候，並不是像我們這樣敲鍵盤，而是渾身都用起來去跟一台機器互動。我 們身體的每一個部分都應該可以操作一台電腦。如果我要再做一個科幻電影，我絕對不會讓電影主角用鍵盤來操作電腦的，我會讓他做一些手勢，看上去就是在工 作。 　　此外還有視覺跟蹤。它會跟蹤你的眼睛看的地方，知道你在看什麽。通過視覺跟蹤，我們還可以捕捉他的情緒，利用這些技術去跟蹤他的眼球，去看他在 看哪些內容的時候情緒變化如何，據此去更改我們的內容。結果就是，我們在看屏幕的時候，實際上它也在看我們。我們就可以去根據這樣反饋來修改我們的作品。 　　語音技術也遠不止是蘋果的SIRI技術，比如說翻譯。有一種實時的翻譯工具，畫麵拍的是西班牙語，顯示出來就變成了英語。這個是一個我們最後的 一個人際交互的一個設想，就是除了前麵說的這些，他是一個頭盔，你帶在頭上它會去捕捉你的想法，你可以通過你的想法去操縱電腦。 注意力在哪兒，錢就在哪兒 　　注意力經濟是一個顛覆性的領域，注意力在哪兒，錢就在哪兒。一種新的商業模式是，我們應該有權利去讓自己成為媒體，在自己上麵放廣告去賺錢。比 如一些博客的下麵會放一個廣告，看上去挺酷的，不像是一個廣告，而博主能拿到錢。另外人們應該有能力去通過自己去製作廣告賺錢。有消費者直接參與的廣告製 作、直接進行廣告宣傳，然後通過自己的社會化媒體變成社會化的一個廣告。這徹底顛覆了廣告行業。 遠距離圖像與視頻技術 　　遠距離圖像也是一個顛覆性的領域，比如電話會議、遠程醫療。Oculus是Facebook剛剛收購的一家虛擬現實公司，我試過他們的產品，感覺特別好，是一種全浸入式的體驗，非常真實。Facebook花了10億美元去收購這家公司。 　　除此之外還有各種屏幕，包括可折疊的屏幕。未來的屏，不僅僅是硬硬的一塊，我們甚至可以把屏變得跟書一樣，可以翻，可以折，裏麵的內容可變。還 有一些沒有屏的展示，比如說全息圖。全息技術現在不完美，但以後可能也會對我們產生顛覆。我們現在已經不是讀書的人，而是讀屏的人。屏裏麵有各種各樣的邏 輯。 　　3D打印給我們帶來的一個巨大顛覆就是，你以前認為硬件的那些東西，在未來都會變成軟件了。3D打印出來的東西其實就是一個圖紙，是能夠更改的 能夠傳輸、修改的，是數據形成的。那麽這就是一個跟我們現在談到的這個各種各樣的互聯網設備一樣，它裏麵是也芯片的，美國人有一種期望，利用3D打印技術 重新讓製造業回歸美國，但也有一種說法，中國現在是3D打印的領袖。 人工智能是可購買的智慧 　　人工智能是你可以花錢購買的一種服務。通過人工智能去創業的公司，需要將人工智能運用到某一個特定領域去增加智慧。比如無人駕駛汽車，其實就是 把人工智能的智慧放到車裏。它的出現將影響交通狀態、影響快遞這樣的行業和司機行業的人。而真正的革命是：這些汽車今後將變成你的新辦公室，今後你用汽車 接收的數據將比你坐在寫字樓裏接收的數據更多。 電子貨幣是一種交流 　　錢很重要，但錢現在是一種交流。所有跟溝通性質相同的領域，比如說分享、合作、跟蹤、廣播、闡述或者是識別，都帶有交流的性質。有一種加密的貨 幣叫比特幣，意味著這種溝通交流也是加密的。比特幣是一種加密的貨幣，但並不是隱形的貨幣。電子貨幣產生的交易都跟溝通一樣，是可以跟蹤的，其實是一種交 流。所以比特幣真正帶來的顛覆是一種交流的感覺，而這種交流產生了錢一樣的價值。 股權眾籌的革命 　　美國現在有450個眾籌平台，產生了一些非常成功的項目，它現在變成一個很大的生意，很多錢湧到這個領域。很多人用這個眾籌網站並不是為了融資，而是用這個東西去做市場調查，去看看自己的商業計劃書會不會受歡迎。最近眾籌股權被承認了，這是一個非常大的革命。 易鵬：為什麽矽穀會在美國誕生？ 　　矽穀是全球科技創新型企業最密集的地區，也是全球風險投資產業最發達的地區，是無數懷揣夢想，想要創新、創業的人們的心中聖地。它自然也是這次盤古智庫“歐美創新、創業調研行”的重點調研地區。 　　從地圖上看，你是找不到“矽穀”這個地方的，因為它不是一個地名。“矽穀”主要是指加州北部舊金山灣以南的聖克拉拉（Santa Clara）山穀及其周邊的部分區域。上世紀七十年代，當地的產業主要是與由高純度的矽製造的半導體及電腦相關的，所以它就有了一個親切的昵稱“矽穀”。 　　現在當地發展成為全球高新科技企業和風險投資產業的重點聚集地區，矽穀這個名字在全球也就變得家喻戶曉，而它的本命聖克拉拉山穀，反而沒多少人 在意了。這次在矽穀調研的過程中，我就一直在想矽穀形成的原因，他是多方麵綜合因素的結果，這裏麵有曆史的偶然，但也有曆史的必然。 　　１．矽穀的誕生離不開美國的整體環境。綜合來看，美國的教育非常發達，能夠為創新提供足夠的新技術和源源不斷的研發型人才；國家法製健全，重視 知識產權保護，創新型的小公司不用擔心自己的專利和模式被大公司剽竊；美國文化中有很重的英雄情結，人們敢於釋放夢想，相信這個製度能夠讓平凡人成功，不 會有太多的後顧之憂；美國是移民國家，使得它的文化多元化程度高，包容性非常強，人們不怕失敗，社會包容失敗。這些都是創新、創業必須要求的環境條件和人 文品質。 　　２．美國有非常發達的航空交通網和成本很低的公路運輸網，使得經濟發展所需的要素能夠在全美國自由而內充分的流動。這樣一個環境，使得美國能夠 在全國形成合理的產業分工，而在局部地區形成足夠的產業集聚效應。比如，在全美範圍內有紐約無可爭議的金融中心，波士頓地區生物產業的集聚，德州地區有電 器、石油裝備製造業的集聚，矽穀地區的IT、TMT產業的集聚，洛杉磯星光熠熠的文化娛樂產業的集聚。矽穀單獨看是一個有充分集聚效應的產業區，放在整個 美國看又是美國整體經濟環境中有機的一環。  矽穀匯集了世界上領先的科技企業 矽穀匯集了世界上領先的科技企業 　　３．我們也要考慮矽穀這個地區的個性因素。矽穀最初的發展是因為斯坦福這個高校，而斯坦福又是一個產學研結合的最好高校之一。實際上，斯坦福之 所以產學研的工作做得好，還是因為當年學校經費緊張，而其創始人斯坦福先生的遺囑規定“永遠不許賣出學校土地”，逼得管理層沒有辦法了，拚命在學校的技術 轉化和土地出租上動腦筋。這才形成了最初的“高校產業園區+高校技術轉化”的發展模式，形成了矽穀的雛形。這樣的發展方式使得矽穀在技術創新中，起步就領 先，一路領先，建立了強大品牌和吸引力，現在已經形成了強烈的馬太效應，短時期內其他地區沒法與之比肩。 　　４．另一個顯著特點就是人口都是“移民”而來。最初，美國西部的淘金熱潮，把東部一批最富冒險精神的美國人吸引到了舊金山。盡管這部分人大部分 是失敗了，但是他們的冒險精神和開拓的勇氣傳承了下來。隨著時代的推移，西部又成為了大量東歐移民、中國移民、印度移民的主要落腳點和聚集地。這些人的到 來，給矽穀帶來了勤奮的氣質和更加多元化，更加包容的文化氛圍。這些獨特的精神氣質使得矽穀地區自然成為了創新和創業的樂土。 　　５．矽穀自身非常幸運的一點是，它正好趕上了上世紀七十年代以來技術革命的“風口”。隨著上世紀70年代微處理的發展，電腦的體積進行了大幅度 縮小，這個技術把世界帶進了“網絡時代”。而矽穀當時在研發能力儲備上和技術路徑選擇上，又全力以赴的向這個路徑發展。既可以說是斯坦福的技術和矽穀的產 業引領著這個時代，也可以說是這個全新的時代成就了矽穀的輝煌！微型計算機技術的發展和網絡時代的到來是人類曆史上的必然，但是這個技術在矽穀形成集群產 業還是具有一定的偶然性的，這和矽穀的硬件條件有重要的關係，但在很大程度上也是矽穀自身的幸運。 別忘了給矽穀的氣候點個讚 別忘了給矽穀的氣候點個讚 　　６．還有一些其它因素，也是矽穀形成的重要原因。第一，矽穀曆來不是美國政治的中心。美國政治充滿了各種利益集團的博弈和權力之間的鬥爭，離政 治中心太近的地區，人們更傾向於靠利益交換和妥協來解決問題，其文化氛圍和思維方式必然與矽穀這裏的完全不同。而矽穀遠離政治，尊重市場，靠的是創新來引 領社會發展。第二，矽穀發展的初期，其土地成本和商務成本非常低廉，給初創企業提供了一個非常好的成長環境。盡管現在看來，矽穀的綜合成本已經不再便宜， 但是他的品牌已經形成了，產業集聚效應也非常強大，未來發展是分享品牌和技術紅利的時期。第三，美國加州相對來說日照充足，氣候溫暖，環境宜人，也是一個 適合人們生活的好地方。必須承認，一個好的自然環境，也在一定程度上能夠激發人們創新的靈感。 　　７．而矽穀之所以能夠成為一個長達一百多公裏的“穀”，和美國這種去中心化的城市布局有很大關係。美國的產業主要靠市場的力量自動聚集，新來的 企業既想分享產業聚集的優勢，又希望降低成本，最理性的選擇必然是在“核心區”的周邊地區落腳。這就使得矽穀能夠蔓延式的發展，最終形成了一片很大的產業 聚集區。在這點上，中國的創新創業園區會受到更多的政府規劃影響，往往選擇一點突破，樹立典型。這就使得很多比較好的創新園區失去自由蔓延的空間，限製了 其進一步發展。 　　中國也有很多地區和園區在創新、創業上作出了顯著的成績，但是在全球範圍內比較還是和矽穀、海法、築波這樣的世界級創新中心有著巨大的差距。我們不斷探究矽穀的成因，實際上還是希望能夠給中國的創新、創業園區的發展帶來一定的啟示。