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Market support is broken

(2014-02-03 17:16:01) 下一個
Unfortunately, support is broken today. I was expecting a bounce to 1825 to form the right shoulder, but it didn't happen. Instead, stops got triggered one after another. Now market is on 3rd wave down. Wave 1: from 1850 to 1775, wave 2: from 1775 to 1795, wave 3: started from 1795. Wave 3 is usually the most powerful wave. First target is 1710-1725 area which ias also 200 moving average. If Friday's job report is poor (Dell likely to announce a lay off of north 15,000 jobs soon), it could really get ugly.

At this point, this strong uptrend is in question. And 50MA seems turning to downside. We have to see if market is going to bounce when reaching 200MA and where this right should is going to form (likely some where between 1725-1775 area). Former support 1775 becomes resistance. 1725 could be the neck. Under that market will be in big trouble (where we have to put our eyes on mid-term election that usually creates CHAOs in the market  -  Selling in May could have a whole lot more meaning this yr).

It doesn't look too bad on weekly chart yet. Although mid bollinger band that supported 2013 rally got broken today. But there is still 50MA that works as support. After 100 points dropped from the high, I don't like to be very bearish after the sell off. However, having some decent cash in hand is very important at the moment.

Overall, market could be at the place that two trend reversal is happening: Gold downtrend starts to reverse, and S&P uptrend starts to reverse. It still takes time to have these two reversals to be completed. But we should start to take that into serious account.



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