09/09
昨晚日經指數破天荒地漲了7.7%,中國上證綜合指數也小漲2.29%,亞洲股市指數普遍上漲。使得歐市繼續上漲,也使得今日美股市大盤繼續上漲。
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/3806998.html (大千鏈接)
俺覺得G20 會議之後,歐美日中股市似乎穩定下來,危機和暴跌的可能性大為減少,市場普遍傾向利多的情緒。當然這不表示修正已經結束,盤整還得繼續一段時間。
美大盤上漲或許對今日的原油價格有支撐。然而今日收盤後的API和明日的EIA原油總庫存報告會繼續對原油價格下壓,有可能先漲後跌。
EIA今日也會發布短期能源展望(STEO),原油多頭似乎期待EIA的報告可以帶來利多消息,如8/31的月底報告一樣,大漲10%。 不過,這可能性很小,情況已經不同。當時原油是賣超非常嚴重,原油價位在40元以下,現在原油價位已經稍微偏高,沒有超賣情形,所以要暴漲很難。
最近對原油不利的消息有:
1. 中國8月進口的原油大為減少,沒有像7月份一樣超買。這令人迷惑,8月份的原油價格是最低,WTI達到38元。為何中國不繼續購買囤貨?有沒有可能中國的三桶油,囤油的資金已用完?
2. Exxon Mobile在路易桑拿的煉油廠關閉,減少了每日50萬桶油的煉油廠能,這有可能將使得未來原油庫存大增,油產品維持好價格。
Oil prices slips; stock market rally provides support
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/08/oil-markets-remain-weak-as-oversupply-keeps-biting.html
Crude oil price fall due to oversupply concerns
http://marketrealist.com/2015/09/crude-oil-prices-fall-due-oversupply-concerns/
The latest data from Chinese customs reported that crude oil imports from China fell in August 2015. The government data showed that Chinese crude oil imports fell by 13% in August 2015—compared to August 2014—to 26.59 million tons. Meanwhile, the Chinese exports fell worse than the market estimates in August 2015. The Chinese exports fell by 5.50% in August 2015—compared to August 2014. The slowing Chinese demand for crude oil in the oversupplied market will continue to fuel pessimistic sentiments in the crude oil market. The Chinese equities market also fell in Monday’s trade. This added more to the global oil market concerns.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/08/asias-slowing-economies-and-oversupply-weigh-on-oil-markets.html
U.S. crude was weighed down by the closure of the largest crude distillation unit at ExxonMobil Corp's 502,500-barrels-per-day (bpd) Baton Rouge, Louisiana, refinery.
On Monday, Phillips 66 shut down a fluid catalytic cracker at its 314,000 barrel-per-day refinery in Wood River, Illinois. The gasoline-making unit is expected to restart within 48 hours, a source familiar with the plant's operations said.
In China, crude oil imports fell 13.4 percent in August to 6.29 million bpd from the previous month. But they rose 5.6 percent from a year earlier.