中國，中國，還是中國

中國，中國，還是中國

在經濟持續低迷的美國，談起中國就象黑暗中有了光明。以下是一位美國經濟學PhD給我的e-mail的摘要：

China’s economic boom is similar to America at the beginning of the industrial revolution, together with the emergence of a huge—half a billion—educated consumer class, has created the perfect economic environment for spectacular and long-running, growth and profits. In the past three decades, this economic boom has created more than 477,000 new millionaires and quite a few billionaires as well, with no end in sight. The latest forecasts by the IMF and other experts say that China will continue to grow by nearly 10% a year.

Remember:

• China led the world out of last year’s global recession with an economy that’s more than 90-times bigger than the beginning of free-market reforms in 1978.

• According to Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former head of the China division at the International Monetary Fund, China’s surpassing of Japan “is a marker of its increasingly dominant role in the global economy. The resilience of China’s growth during the crisis enabled a number of other countries, particularly commodity-exporting economies, to ride on its coattails.”

• China overtook the U.S. last year as the biggest automobile market and Germany as the largest exporter.

• China is still the world’s No. 1 buyer of iron ore and copper and the second- biggest importer of crude oil, and has underpinned demand for exports by its Asian neighbors.

• Four of the world’s top 10 companies, by market capitalization, are from China, including PetroChina Co., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China Mobile Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.

• Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. boosted the size of its initial public offering to $22.1 billion this summer after selling more stock in Shanghai, making it the world’s largest first-time share sale.

• China may be the biggest IPO market in 2010 as companies are likely to raise 500 billion yuan ($74 billion) in Shanghai and Shenzhen, PricewaterhouseCoopers forecast recently.

• The country’s “double-digit” expansion will contribute a third of global growth this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in March.

• China’s phenomenal growth will continue to have a huge impact on the global commodities market and foreign direct investment flows just as Japan did in the 1980s. But, China’s population is 10-times bigger than Japan’s, its economy is still growing at above 9 percent per year, and China new consumer class is just beginning to invest.

While China may have been the junior partner in its relations with the U.S. not so long ago, that day has most certainly passed. Not only does China now hold the upper hand, it also has many other trading partners, which it can rely upon (not to mention a thriving domestic market that promises to soon be the most lucrative in the world).

According to a detailed study by PriceWaterhouseCooper, China could become the world's largest economy, overtaking the U.S. by as early as 2020.  For China to surpass the U.S. by 2020, it would therefore have to grow by $5.5 trillion, or 60% in purchasing parity terms, plus whatever level of growth occurs in the U.S. economy over the same period. (From Stephen Leeb's e-mail)

三十年河東，三十年河西。現在的風向標是絕對指向中國的，各位追錢族可要認準方向。。。