現在的貿易逆差/順差的計算方式可能不能全麵反映誰是吃虧/獲利方

2018 年，在中國sale最多的，屬於S&P 500的，前20個美國公司在中國的sale總和是$158.4B, 這其中多少是在中國產，中國賣，不算在美國對中國的貿易量中的？ 反觀有什麽中國公司，能在美國產賣給美國，而不算中國對美國的貿易量？ 幾乎沒有。 當然美國公司賺的錢美國大部分群眾也獲不了利。

所以貿易戰的勝利可能也不能單單用現在的順差/逆差計算方法來評估。也不能用金錢衡量。 美國的戰略目標是什麽？ 讓中國製造2025變成不可能。 中國的戰略目標是什麽？ 不依賴這20個美國公司。 誰能達到自己的戰略目標，誰就是這次貿易戰的贏家。 希望美中能合作而不是對抗。

The 20 U.S. companies among the S&P 500 with the highest level of sales, in U.S. dollars, in China during the most recently reported full fiscal year, totaling $158.4 billion:

Company	Ticker	‘China’ sales ($mil)	Total revenue - most recent reported fiscal year ($mil)	Share of sales in ‘China’
Apple Inc.	AAPL, -1.39%	$44,764	$228,572	19.6%
Intel Corp.	INTC, -0.90%	$14,796	$62,761	23.6%
Qualcomm Inc.	QCOM, +2.46%	$14,579	$22,291	65.4%
Boeing Co.	BA, +0.15%	$11,911	$93,392	12.8%
Micron Technology Inc.	MU, -0.84%	$10,388	$20,322	51.1%
Broadcom Ltd.	AVGO, -0.03%	$9,466	$17,636	53.7%
Cisco Systems Inc.	CSCO, +0.83%	$7,650	$48,005	15.9%
Texas Instruments Inc.	TXN, +0.40%	$6,600	$14,961	44.1%
Procter & Gamble Co.	PG, +1.70%	$5,205	$65,058	8.0%
Starbucks Corp.	SBUX, +0.67%	$4,512	$22,384	20.2%
Western Digital Corp.	WDC, -1.21%	$4,271	$19,093	22.4%
Nike Inc. Class B	NKE, +1.17%	$4,237	$34,254	12.4%
3M Co.	MMM, +0.33%	$3,255	$31,657	10.3%
Skyworks Solutions Inc.	SWKS, -1.29%	$3,018	$3,651	82.7%
Applied Materials Inc.	AMAT, -0.34%	$2,746	$14,537	18.9%
TE Connectivity Ltd.	TEL, +0.02%	$2,414	$13,113	18.4%
Corning Inc	GLW, +0.52%	$2,230	$10,115	22.0%
Abbott Laboratories	ABT, +0.04%	$2,146	$27,390	7.8%
Cummins Inc.	CMI, +0.03%	$2,137	$20,428	10.5%
Amphenol Corp. Class A	APH, +0.49%	$2,067	$7,011	29.5%
Source: FactSet

As you can see, in a potential trade war with China there would be nowhere to hide even if you were invested in a broad index fund. Apple Inc. AAPL, -1.39% alone has a market value of nearly $845 billion, or 3.8% of the total value of the S&P 500.