正文
Trading like running marathon. Running a marathon is a very difficult thing to do, but people who are determined to do it, even if they are handicapped, can train and complete a marathon. Someone fit but not trained could never do it without that type of training.
Most people if they work hard enough, are disciplined enough, and follow all the basic rules that I tried to outline as being common denominator traits of great traders will make profits in the markets and certainly do better than the average person. But will they be market wizards? Well no. I mean most of them won\'t be any more successful than most people would be as world-class runners if they went into running, or more than most people would be as world-class solo musicians if they decided to take up music. To reach exceptional success in trading or anything else requires a combination of both innate and hard work to exploit that talent.
is it an art or is it a science?
It depends on the person. If you watch somebody like Steve Cohen who takes in all sorts of different inputs, reacting to them instantaneously and actively trading, it seems to be more art than science.
If, on the other hand, you look at someone like David Shaw, who employs an extraordinarily complex model that simultaneously trades thousands of securities and derivatives on all the major global exchanges, using a score of mathematical methodologies, that’s clearly science.
Finally, you have some people, such as John Bender, for whom trading is both an art and a science. Bender looks for situations where he believes the mathematically implied option prices are out of line with market realities and probabilities as he sees them. His approach is a science insofar as it relates to the quantitative analysis of options, but is also an art in that it depends on his evaluation of which markets have probability distributions different from those assumed by the standard option pricing models. The art comes in being able to decide how the current scenario in a market is likely to play out. For example, judgments such as saying that the chance of a sharp break in a particular market is much greater than would be implied by a normal distribution.
- Jack Schwager
Most people if they work hard enough, are disciplined enough, and follow all the basic rules that I tried to outline as being common denominator traits of great traders will make profits in the markets and certainly do better than the average person. But will they be market wizards? Well no. I mean most of them won\'t be any more successful than most people would be as world-class runners if they went into running, or more than most people would be as world-class solo musicians if they decided to take up music. To reach exceptional success in trading or anything else requires a combination of both innate and hard work to exploit that talent.
is it an art or is it a science?
It depends on the person. If you watch somebody like Steve Cohen who takes in all sorts of different inputs, reacting to them instantaneously and actively trading, it seems to be more art than science.
If, on the other hand, you look at someone like David Shaw, who employs an extraordinarily complex model that simultaneously trades thousands of securities and derivatives on all the major global exchanges, using a score of mathematical methodologies, that’s clearly science.
Finally, you have some people, such as John Bender, for whom trading is both an art and a science. Bender looks for situations where he believes the mathematically implied option prices are out of line with market realities and probabilities as he sees them. His approach is a science insofar as it relates to the quantitative analysis of options, but is also an art in that it depends on his evaluation of which markets have probability distributions different from those assumed by the standard option pricing models. The art comes in being able to decide how the current scenario in a market is likely to play out. For example, judgments such as saying that the chance of a sharp break in a particular market is much greater than would be implied by a normal distribution.
- Jack Schwager
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